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Snow Monster On It's Way Nov 1-6

post #1 of 29
Thread Starter 

A full on - Max Integrity Jet Trough is going to Pounce on the Inter-mountain region Nov 1-

 

6

 

This is real deal - a rare event - 3 to 7 feet new snow Alta -

 

Most Jet patterns lack integrity in some way or the other - there-by limiting precipitation - not this time

 

Orthographic - Terrain Inhanced lift  is going to make the sheep run for the hills and the cows moo like wolves -

 

It's going to be wild and woolly on those western mountain peaks come Nov 1-6

post #2 of 29

I'd love to see this happen, but how are they predicting this 2-3 weeks out. Do you have a link to any kind of meteorological report or is this a gut feeling thing?

post #3 of 29
Thread Starter 

I use my own methods for predicting Jet stream position and trough dynamics - I looked at the 15 day NCEP 15 Day Model - JUST BEFORE -before writing this reply -

 

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/npac/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_384s.gif

 

This model graphic is 15 days out - Nov 1 - but I basically agree with it - not very often do 15 day models pan out well - but since my own Jet forecast is similar  - I included it - will both be right generally or will both be wrong -

 

I stand by my forecast - you just do not see such excellent trough and jet dynamics come into play that often as my own methods suggest - this is one case where the Jet Stream sets up like giant locomotive off the Pacific and barrels full steam into Inter-mountain Region with nothing to stop it -

 

post #4 of 29

Hope you're right. GFS has been pretty consitent over last 4-5 days in showing storminess over intermountain starting around next weekend. Hope your forecast re first week of november is also true. We shall see. Unlike last 2 years, I have no early ski trip to utah planned, but if they get whacked early, that could change.  

post #5 of 29

It's not Nov. 1 yet, looks like decent storm on way in next few days.

post #6 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Johnson View Post

I use my own methods for predicting Jet stream position and trough dynamics -

 


Oh, well in that case...

post #7 of 29



 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Johnson View Post

 

  Terrain Enhanced lift is going to make the sheep run for the hills and the cows moo like wolves -

 



 Dude! ..... I've got to get some of this stuff, whatever the hell it is.

 

 Sheep run away for the slightest thing. (Phil told me this. He sounded experienced. )  But "Cows moo like wolves" .........

 

 Oh my!  That IS the deal maker...... I'm so there.


Edited by skimalibu - 10/25/10 at 8:02am
post #8 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Johnson View Post

Orthographic - Terrain Inhanced lift  is going to make the sheep run for the hills and the cows moo like wolves -

 

 

That would be "orographic".

 

Ironically, "orthographic" has to do with correct spelling.

 

post #9 of 29
it looks pretty good from where I sit right now just looking out the window. The whole week calls for percip- it'll be snow at the higher elevations.
post #10 of 29

Things are looking up. A couple of storms are now scheduled for a direct hit on the northern wasatch and bear river mts by tuesday.

 

Time to go out for what might be the last trail ride of the season.

post #11 of 29

Snowbird posted on their Facebook a few hours ago they are expecting 20-30" by Monday night.

post #12 of 29

Predictions for the Cascades are for a couple of feet of new snow tonight above 5500 ft.

post #13 of 29

Starting....

 

bach.JPG

post #14 of 29

Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

 

Dump Dump Dump Dump!

post #15 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by newfydog View Post

Starting....

 

bach.JPG



 

WOOOOO! 

post #16 of 29

Check out the snow cam on snowbirds website. I tried to post a picture but the uploader isn't putting it in.

post #17 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by tylrwnzl View Post

. I tried to post a picture but the uploader isn't putting it in.



snipping tool.  Screw the upload/download. it never works

post #18 of 29

Mt Hood Meadows today:

Picture 1.png

post #19 of 29

Got snow in the Wasatch!

post #20 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff Johnson View Post


This is real deal - a rare event - 3 to 7 feet new snow Alta -

 


It's going to be wild and woolly on those western mountain peaks come Nov 1-6


Wouldn't 7 feet be "too much" even for them?  I'd think that would shut down the roads making it impossible for them to open for a day or two.  The avy danger would be off the charts.  Then they'd need to dig out the lifts haha.  I suppose being on the mountain before it hits would be your best bet of actually getting to ski something like that. 

post #21 of 29



 

Quote:
Originally Posted by crgildart View Post




Wouldn't 7 feet be "too much" even for them?   Then they'd need to dig out the lifts ha ha. 


 A problem they wouldn't mind having, I'm sure............. Just show me to the Loader. I'll get them up and running.

 

 I've heard all kind of conflicting info on this winter's snowfall projections. I hope this trend continues............. My skis are SCREAMING!
 


Edited by skimalibu - 10/25/10 at 8:30am
post #22 of 29

3'-6' through tomorrow night forecast for the WA Cascades, above 4,000'. 

 

Listen, is that winter coming?

post #23 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by crgildart View Post




Wouldn't 7 feet be "too much" even for them?  I'd think that would shut down the roads making it impossible for them to open for a day or two.  The avy danger would be off the charts.  Then they'd need to dig out the lifts haha.  I suppose being on the mountain before it hits would be your best bet of actually getting to ski something like that. 



I can't say about Alta, but that's a regular thing for us. Last season, we had no snow on the ground...then Bam! 100" in 7 days and we opened 100% of our terrain. There have been quite a few places that have seen 90"+ in a sinlge day.

 

The way things are shaping up around here, we could see a massive start again this season. The whole issue hinges on the FL this time of year. Looking at 36" in the next 2 days but a possible warming trend later in the week, pushing the snow level back up over 5000'.

post #24 of 29

Stevens Pass today:

 

stevenspass2.jpg

post #25 of 29

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Posaune View Post

Stevens Pass today:

 

 

Was just about to come and post that.  Bring it!
 

post #26 of 29

Even Silver Mountain is getting dumped on today at 5000 ft:

 

mountain.jpg

 

Looks like they still need to put those chairs back on the cable.

post #27 of 29

Atla is socked in and it looks like the guns are on as well.

 

albcam2.jpg

post #28 of 29

Wondering if this is the storm that was originally predicting but just came early?  Or should i have a REAL big smile for next week.

fullsize.image

post #29 of 29

 

it's been snowing all day at breck and i have loved it !

 

www.brecklivecam.com

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