I wouldn't call the GC race over for Lance at this point. It's early, and this stage was an odd duck in terms of its challenge in what is usually a first week for the sprinters. Yes, he lost time and has his work cut out for him. Then again, so do Contador, Basso, Wiggins, Gesink and Menchov.
Schleck is vulnerable in the mountains without his brother there to shepherd and protect him (his brother is the only reason he was competitive with Contador last year, in my eyes - they're a potent 1-2 punch). Cancellara isn't strong when the hills get ultra-steep and ultra-frequent, which leaves Jens Voigt and... well, that's about it.
Evans is looking great right now, but his BMC team is an unknown factor when the roads slope upward. Hincapie is a single-day rider on the downslope of his career, so his help is questionable.
Contador has looked mortal, of late, and has a so-so support squad, including a fellow GC contender who feels like the team is his (Vinokourov).
Armstrong had bad fortune with punctures, but Popo helped him well through the remaining pavé sections. He has some great support riders in the form of Brajkovic, Klöden, Leipheimer, Horner and others, though most of them are older and looking the part, these days. But Lance knows the strategy better than almost everybody else in the peloton, so don't count him out until after we see some real mountain action.
The basic truth is that anybody within 3-4 minutes who is a GC contender can easily make that up in the mountains.
I don't see any way that Lance puts time on AC. He will easily put 1-2 minutes into AS in the final TT so he's not the worry. I don't consider Evans a threat for the GC at all...when the roads go up he will get dropped like a bad habit. This race is basically down to AS, AC and Lance barring more disasters. Maybe Wiggo can also stick his head in there but I just don't see where Lance can take back time on AC. All AC has to do now is stay with Lance in the hills (which he should do) and not lose 50 seconds to him in the final TT. I think Lance can climb with AC and AS but I don't think he can shed them on the climbs. Guess we will see.....