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Long range forecast appears good for the upcoming season ... out West that is.

post #1 of 19
Thread Starter 

My wife is always telling me that even though I'm not skiing - I'm thinking about skiing.  So at lunch today, I thought to check out NOAA's website for the long range forecast for the upcoming season.  From the looks of it a "La-Nina" trend appears to be returning ...

 

 

"FORECASTS FOR [Nov-Jun] INDICATE A MODEST TILT TOWARD LA NINA IMPACTS, INCLUDING SUB-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA AND IN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN CONUS.  ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED FOR THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

 

THEREAFTER THROUGH [Jun-Aug] 2011, INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND PARTS OF ALASKA, WITH ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN [May thru Aug] 2011.  THESE SIGNALS ARE PRIMARILY TRENDS."

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html

 

post #2 of 19

How handy.  Was just posting Tony's La Nina page to another thread.  Here's the link again.  Resorts favored by La Nina.

post #3 of 19

I like the trend, but I won't give up using my rabbit's foot just yet.  It has a 50% rate of success!

post #4 of 19
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Posaune View Post

I like the trend, but I won't give up using my rabbit's foot just yet.  It has a 50% rate of success!



Ok ... I know it's a long way 'til the season.  Still, I like seeing long range forecasts like these - it just makes the summer all the more better

post #5 of 19

The days will be shorter in length as we head towards fall and winter in just a few days. 

post #6 of 19

I predict that somewhere in the world, it will snow tomorrow.

 

I bet I'm 100 percent right.

 

post #7 of 19

I guess it depends on what you mean by OUT West.  The OUT West is a big place.  There is the northern OUT West, the central OUT West, and the southern OUT West.  Then there is the west OUT West and the east OUT West.  The weather pattern you refer to impacts different parts of the OUT West differently.  It tends to favor the northern OUT West, both in the west and east OUT West.  The el nino weather pattern tends to favor the southern OUT West. 

post #8 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJB View Post

I guess it depends on what you mean by OUT West.


Easterners generally mean the Rockies when they say "Out West."  California is the "West Coast."  And Washington, Oregon, and BC are the "PNW."  Montana and Idaho get to be in the PNW and "Out West," both. How did they luck out?

 

As a kid I was bugged that I was born and raised on the West Coast, west of the West, and yet I didn't live on the "West Coast" or in the "West." I've learned to live with it. 

post #9 of 19

All I know is, I'm west of the Divide, so I'm clearly IN the West, no matter if your "West" is west of the Mississippi, west of New York, west of the Divide, or whatever.  But the Pacific is two days drive, so I don't think of myself as Pacific Northwest, although maybe our snow consistency feels a bit that way.  But I think it's due to the Flathead Lake as much as the Pacific.  It's a significant body of water impacting the weather in the valley and contributing to our temperature inversions. 

post #10 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Posaune View Post

I like the trend, but I won't give up using my rabbit's foot just yet.  It has a 50% rate of success!


I have a similar method of forecasting.  I use a donkey's tail, and it goes something like this.

 

If tail is dry-Fine,

If tail is wet-Rain,

If tail moves-Windy

If tail can not be seen-Fog,

If tail is frozen-Cold,

If tail is white-Snow

If tail falls out-Earthquake"

post #11 of 19

It used to drive me nuts when I lived in Colorado, and I'd hear East Coasters and Midwesterners calling it "Out West".  It was a 2 day drive to the Southeast for me to get there.  I had to start calling Colorado "Back East" to set the record straight.

 

post #12 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by FujativeOCR View Post

It used to drive me nuts when I lived in Colorado, and I'd hear East Coasters and Midwesterners calling it "Out West".  It was a 2 day drive to the Southeast for me to get there.  I had to start calling Colorado "Back East" to set the record straight.

 


Colorado is back east from my perspective.

 

As to the OP they predicted a La Nina winter last summer and they were right. Excellent snow year in the Sierras. Most resorts closed due to lack of customers, not snow. Heck most resorts closed six weeks before the snow stopped. It would be nice to have a repeat.
 

post #13 of 19

No, last winter was El Nino, as predicted.  You've got your genders scrambled.
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr5150 View Post




Colorado is back east from my perspective.

 

As to the OP they predicted a La Nina winter last summer and they were right. Excellent snow year in the Sierras. Most resorts closed due to lack of customers, not snow. Heck most resorts closed six weeks before the snow stopped. It would be nice to have a repeat.
 

post #14 of 19

This is good for the Pac NW especially and also the NE, but right now it's hard to tell what the strength of the Niña will be come winter. Also, factors other than the Niña affect the weather. Mid-Atlantic folks like me are screwed if it is moderate or greater but if it is near neutral everyone wins. Everyone who lives in the MA on the weather forum I frequent is getting nervous.

 

If you guys are interested, here is a link to the NWS page that has some useful data on it including a weekly update:

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/

 

Some of the charts are hard to understand if you don't know what you're looking for.

post #15 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by sibhusky View Post

No, last winter was El Nino, as predicted.  You've got your genders scrambled.
 


 


You're right. My bad.

 


 

post #16 of 19

All i can say is i was not impressed with this years snow, not looking foreward to the trend continuing. This year the october snow was the snow you would expect in jan/feb in laramie (basically the same champagne as steamboat) but in jan/feb the snow was wet  and heavy, not nearly as fun as champagne. I know nobody likes a powder snob but it kinda irked me. Not only that but the snow all but cut off during December and January.

post #17 of 19

It's a good year as long as it snows. The average snowfall where I am is 11 meters so a bad year is still good enough. I never count on long term predictions. 3 days out is about the longest for any decent reliability.

post #18 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakuba View Post

It's a good year as long as it snows. The average snowfall where I am is 11 meters so a bad year is still good enough. I never count on long term predictions. 3 days out is about the longest for any decent reliability.


La Nina/El Nino patterns are typically easy to predict as they are long term patterns. Their effects on the west coast are well known.

 

And Honestly with NOAA, and snowforecast I have been able to schedule powder days off with pretty good accuracy a week out.
 

post #19 of 19

Sorry but I'm still going to rely on the age old North American method ( I ask a local Native Indian I know) He said to me as I asked him, going to be a long hard cold winter this year with much snow. I asked him how can you tell this early in the season? Is it the squirrels and chip monks have started gathering nuts already? Have the bears moved to deeper longer caves? Is the sun lower in the sky?

He looked at me like I was crazy and should know better then ask ancestral secretes.

He slower opened his mouth and said to me ..no my friend the white man is building large wood stacks.

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