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10-11 Predictions Winners & Losers - Page 6

post #151 of 180
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philpug View Post




Nah, Kastle has a clothing line that makes Bogner look like it came from Filene's Basement... Or how about Kjus? 


The Kastle clothing line is mosdef sharper than any Bogner that I've ever seen.

Does this jacket make my butt look big?

 I double dog dare anyone here to say the first thing that comes to mind. ...

Kastle Blue Back

post #152 of 180



 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trekchick View Post




The Kastle clothing line is mosdef sharper than any Bogner that I've ever seen.

Does this jacket make my butt look big?

 I double dog dare anyone here to say the first thing that comes to mind. ...

Kastle Blue Back


Is that a question that results in a cyber slap?

But i notice that the lollipop bowl looks pretty empty.
 

post #153 of 180

To settle the geography argument - I am from northern Wyoming.  Everybody have a beer! 

 

Funny thing is, I ski roughly, 5 days in Utah,  5-7 days in Jackson Hole,  3-5 days in Big Sky, and 10-20 days at home every season.  Out of that, I am lucky to get 2 powder days a year.  Bad timing? Maybe... But getting freshies everyday where the bent skis work best, ain't happenin' , more traditional stuff works best for me and my shop - most of my clientle are boomers and families, not many young "rock star", want to be's.. 

 

I would argue that most of my customers would be better off with regular cambered skis under 85mm (probably best under 80mm in reality), and if they get to ski powder/soft snow more, then buy a "fatter" quiver ski.  Hell, I'll sell them anything that they want.  But, right now, most of my customers are kind of turning their nose up at the rocker/fat thing, and the "idie brands" aren't really on the retail radar.   It will be fun to see where things go.  I just want to throw in my two cents once in a while, just to stir the pot

post #154 of 180
Quote:
Originally Posted by BushwackerinPA View Post




try having a 103 mm left foot and a 106 mm right foot. 



In the 27.5 Lange Superblasters which are a bucket for most I am sure at 102mm.  But my feet are 104mm left and 106 right with a high volume instep and a lower volume heal.  When I am not skiing my foot is being absolutely crushed.  But no buckety slop on the slope.   Are they dumping those boots due to lack of demand for the RX/RS line at 98mm and 100mm?   Or did the ManFur and crummy liners hurt the boot as much as the recreation dimensions.  They are a pretty stiff boot but probably not a legit 130 they are marketed as.  Where they a one year loser?   I guess I'll have to check out SJ when I need a replacement, but I have a tough time believing grinding will get my squares into a 98mm last. 

post #155 of 180

Brig:

 

(A) The SB is not a one year loser, it was a big winner and sold out in most sizes very early.

(B) Lange is not dumping the Superblaster. It is expanded to more models for 2011.

(C) The SB has one of the best liners on the market for that wide a boot.

(D) There is no lack of demand for the RX/RS line.

(E) The RX/RS are completely new and are primarily responsible for a huge increase in preseason orders for Lange this year.

 

Other than these points, your post is accurate.

 

SJ

post #156 of 180

SJ- a good move on the Kastle: next thing we'll find out that the sun doen't revolve around the earth!  Hmm, how about being the only Icelantic dealer in the area too?

post #157 of 180



VINDICATION! 

 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by coolhand View Post

To settle the geography argument - I am from northern Wyoming.  Everybody have a beer! 

 

Funny thing is, I ski roughly, 5 days in Utah,  5-7 days in Jackson Hole,  3-5 days in Big Sky, and 10-20 days at home every season.  Out of that, I am lucky to get 2 powder days a year.  Bad timing? Maybe... But getting freshies everyday where the bent skis work best, ain't happenin' , more traditional stuff works best for me and my shop - most of my clientle are boomers and families, not many young "rock star", want to be's.. 

 

I would argue that most of my customers would be better off with regular cambered skis under 85mm (probably best under 80mm in reality), and if they get to ski powder/soft snow more, then buy a "fatter" quiver ski.  Hell, I'll sell them anything that they want.  But, right now, most of my customers are kind of turning their nose up at the rocker/fat thing, and the "idie brands" aren't really on the retail radar.   It will be fun to see where things go.  I just want to throw in my two cents once in a while, just to stir the pot

post #158 of 180


Thanks SJ.

 

Love the boots.  Knew they sold out fast this year.  But didn't know if the fat last would find its market - Fat footed folk who attempt to ski with out pain or slop.  Wondered if the target market would provide a large enough segment to make production profitable.  I wrote the demand question poorly.  My stream of thought was wondering if they had dumped the SB in favor of the RS and RX.   Those boots be completely different if the SB line is being expanded not canned.

 

 Obviously, I am not in the industry and don't know beans about demand based on foot sizes or even what a normal population foot width distribution would be.  I assumed that not that many advanced skiers have fat hooves or they just had skinny boots blown out to accomodate their foot at the expense of pain for performance.  Are they going to make the SB with a narrower last or slightly stiffer flex for 2010-2011?

 

Glad to hear the product is a winner and will be around.  Hopefully for a few years until I need another pair.  Love the walk function.  It really helps on long uphill slogs on my titanium enhanced knee.

 

The flex seems to work fine in heavy old/wet stuff for me.  Keeps me where I need to be and my foot is locked in the boot heal down with zero play side to side.  Actually my foot is crunched by the fat boots. 

 

I like the liners, but wondered if there was any negative response to the comfort oriented style/performance of said liners?

 

But the big question is...will they have the man fur going forward?

 


 

Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post

Brig:

 

(A) The SB is not a one year loser, it was a big winner and sold out in most sizes very early.

(B) Lange is not dumping the Superblaster. It is expanded to more models for 2011.

(C) The SB has one of the best liners on the market for that wide a boot.

(D) There is no lack of demand for the RX/RS line.

(E) The RX/RS are completely new and are primarily responsible for a huge increase in preseason orders for Lange this year.

 

Other than these points, your post is accurate.

 

SJ


Edited by altabrig - 5/17/10 at 12:08pm
post #159 of 180

Maybe I am beating a dead horse in light of all the indie/conglomorate discussion.  Where is the Super Fat powder specific market headed?  This question is specific to the pow only type boards like the Kuro and other product offerings by the big producers to reach those who are looking for a big dump ski that wasn't made by a company that might be out of business in two seasons.  Which shapes/companies will be winners in 2010-2011 maintain momentum forcasting out a season creating buzz and gaining market share in this very specific quiver/market segment?

 

 

What do SJ, Dawg, Phil, et al have to say about the big companies vs. indies product line development of  flat cambered/reverse cambered/rockered products for super float in powder.  What is the trend going to be moving towards for this blower only boards?  Early rise with camber, full rocker or a happy in between like a flat with strong front and shy tail rocker?  What about sidecut?  Where are the big boys (Volkl/Dynastar/etc) headed?  Will we see more fat straight skis, traditional sidecut, or more offerings with reverse side cut? 

 

Further out past 2011, which deep pow boards will prove faddish and which will become a new paradigm?

 

Winners:  Indies? LINE?  Who Else?  Volkl?  Dynastar? K-2?

 

So So:  Mediocre and does the job without superlative abilities? Volkl? 

 

Losers:  Who will miss the fat/powder only market they are trying to target completely?

post #160 of 180

Trek;; Oh to be that jacket!

post #161 of 180

Brig:

 

The reality of the boot market is that the majority of skiers are in boots such as yours even if they have average width feet. Those 102s along with the more generous 100mm boots sell in far greater numbers than the 98s or smaller. This is not even considering some of the really enormous (104-106mm) stuff out there. The average skier has little to no clue about boots vs. foot shape and generally buys b/c they like the color the brand name or the price. Most shops are lucky to get a skier into either the right size or the right shape let alone both.

 

As liners go, the SB has a much firmer liner than most if not all of the other hi vol. boots. As such, I don't really consider it as a cushy liner. The man fur is probably here to stay for a year or two or until the marketing types get tired of it. The fur itself has relatively little long term effect on the boot. The SB was a bit of a phenomenon this year as it was really the only boot of it's type with any widespread availability. There will be other offerings for this next year including a 98mm boot with a free hinge feature from Atomic and a 101 from Salomon. The Solly however is roomier than the Lange. At this time, Lange does not have anything on the near horizon that is narrower in the SB lineup.

 

SJ

post #162 of 180


 

Hopefully the demand for wider stiffer boots with a walk option is here to stay.

 

Thanks for the information SJ.


 

Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post

Brig:

 

The reality of the boot market is that the majority of skiers are in boots such as yours even if they have average width feet. Those 102s along with the more generous 100mm boots sell in far greater numbers than the 98s or smaller. This is not even considering some of the really enormous (104-106mm) stuff out there. The average skier has little to no clue about boots vs. foot shape and generally buys b/c they like the color the brand name or the price. Most shops are lucky to get a skier into either the right size or the right shape let alone both.

 

As liners go, the SB has a much firmer liner than most if not all of the other hi vol. boots. As such, I don't really consider it as a cushy liner. The man fur is probably here to stay for a year or two or until the marketing types get tired of it. The fur itself has relatively little long term effect on the boot. The SB was a bit of a phenomenon this year as it was really the only boot of it's type with any widespread availability. There will be other offerings for this next year including a 98mm boot with a free hinge feature from Atomic and a 101 from Salomon. The Solly however is roomier than the Lange. At this time, Lange does not have anything on the near horizon that is narrower in the SB lineup.

 

SJ

post #163 of 180

^^^ I'd say ^^^  (talking consumer acceptance and sales here, not quality)

 

 

Winners: Rossignol, K2, Line, Atomic, 4frnt, Armada,  Volkl 

 

So So: Salomon, Dynastar, Elan

 

Losers: Fischer, Stockli, Head, Kastle (not at all their market)

 

If you are looking for truly 'progressive' skis for the deep, well, indies do this better. They are playing a different game, they aren't trying to sell skis to shops who will then sell to a local market. They are (often) building small runs of skis that are direct marketed to their own unique market and they can sell for 'less' and often use a pre-order to generate working capital... it's a different game. They specialize more than any major ski manufacturer could afford to.

 

post #164 of 180

Incidentally, Skipass.com has its photo/specs of 2010-2011 skis up, with actual English version: http://global.skipass.com/gearguide/ 

 

Most interesting IMO is how much tip freakout is suddenly out there. Not just K2, but even Fischer is claiming ERT, and all of Head's Peaks down to the 78 have the flow tips, while Rossi is claiming rocker tip and tail all the way down into the 80's, and all Head's fat skis, including the Jerry, are listed as rocker and no camber. Is this last some magazine intern's screw up or truth? Bob P, are you out there?

post #165 of 180

One of the key words here is 'claimed' and the word that goes along with it is 'marketing' as in.........."marketing rocker" A few product managers and sales manager types have jabbed me a bit in the last few months for my use of that term in product descriptions. There are a peck of skis in the offing that offer that (dubious) feature. I have skied on nearly all of them and yes......if you squint just right, you can see it. If you want the ski to be great, you can maybe feel it, and if you drink the juice.......you can maybe convince yourself (or someone) that it is a better mousetrap.

 

The mainstream companies are not embracing a broad offering of dramatic shapes such as big double rise let alone reverse-reverse. Rather, they are going the other way and offering a taste of the powder technology while from their perspective, maintaining some semblance of overall utility. The majors are sticking to moderation and tip rise only for the majority of their offerings.

 

I suspect that they will continue on this course.

 

SJ

post #166 of 180
Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post

One of the key words here is 'claimed' and the word that goes along with it is 'marketing' as in.........."marketing rocker" A few product managers and sales manager types have jabbed me a bit in the last few months for my use of that term in product descriptions.


 "Jabbed a bit"? Wait until Claudine Longet walks into StartHaus, asking for you...

post #167 of 180
Quote:
Originally Posted by beyond View Post




 "Jabbed a bit"? Wait until Claudine Longet walks into StartHaus, asking for you...


She can take her best shot.

 

SJ

post #168 of 180

SJ,

I must a apologize for having forgotten about this thread.   PSD   "Post-ski Season Depression"

Thank you for your reply to my request for number of models per product line in ski and boots.

I am amazed at the number of SKUs that you stock in skis. If my count is correct, that is 57 different skis in 11 different ski brands(excluding Kastle.)

post #169 of 180
Quote:
Originally Posted by Squawker View Post

Having trouble seeing this from a north European standpoint, but then I'm not in the trade myself.

Are you trying to say that the Olympics should've helped but didn't (decent results for Bode, Lindsey Vonn ditto, Cuche disappointing, Anja Pärson's Olympic ups and downs must be good publicity)

 


If I were a part of Lindey's team, I'd be seriously concerned about her SL and GS results since switching to Head.  She's done great in DH and SG, and it tends to mask the issue, but her SL and GS result were disastrous this past season.  It looked like she spent the whole season trying to nail the setup, between fighting injuries.  She hasn't had a single GS/SL race where she "connected" with her gear.  Maybe it's time to paint a new top sheet on her old Rossis.

post #170 of 180

What I find interesting in the Euro replies is the greater interest in racing and higher end carving skis. To the average skier in the U.S., Vonn and Miller are already yesterday's culture heroes, no critique because no attention to the trajectories of their careers. I have ski buddies who can quote the current top 10 leaders in every MLB category, but know Vonn as that hot blonde in the tights who won the Olympics. (Apparently every medal, including biathlon.) Bode is that hippie who screwed up before and then made it right this time. The others don't exist. Nor does the World Cup circuit. And these are guys who love to ski, have been all over doing it.

 

Or Skiing Magazine, which for better or worse, still a very news stand face of our sport. This past season they had a small pic/blurb at the start of the magazine (prior to features) that stated Vonn had won another World Cup, and they knew they'd get flack if they didn't mention it. OK, now on to the interesting stuff, was the attitude. Yeah, I realize Skiing is in a death spiral, and trying to attract hip freeriders who follow that pro circuit marginally but could care about the W.C. (Well, except for whether Olsson makes the team). 

 

So it would be interesting to know 1) what % of skis sold worldwide are in Europe, and 2) what % of those are carvers. All I know is that there are more skiers in Japan than the U.S. I figure Europe MUST have the most by far. We may not even be the tail of the dog, let alone wagging it...

 

 

 

post #171 of 180

Wow, I got here late.  What'd I miss?
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post

Lange: Agree except that the RX line will be even better for the majority of shops. (Not necessarily ours as we sell a huge number of ~~ 98mm boots) There are a lot of good 98mm boots, but the good 100mm boots are few.


Interesting.  Sounds like it's worth me thinking about when it comes time to replace my Dalbello Protons.  (110 days on those shells so far....)

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post

Re the quality thing: There has been passing mention of all the innovative indie brands and how strong they are getting and how great they are. All of them put together are less than 4% of the US market. They seem for the most part to be feeding on one another not the majors. I see a fair number of these from many different suppliers every week. Some are quite good but the majority look like they were chiseled out by Fred Flintstone. I have skied on a few and some ski ok while some ski like they were chiseled out by Fred Flintstone. I give them huge props for great imagination and creating buzz.


Re feeding on each other, yeah, there's some truth to that, if for no other reason than their profile.  There's a very good chance that your average skier who does a weekend or two through a two-week trip a year has never even heard of any of them, and is unlikely to risk it.  On the other hand, those who know of and are willing to consider one indie brand are highly likely to know of and consider others.  There's a quantum leap aspect to it.

 

Re quality, I think you're right that it depends, but you also need to bear in mind that it's a moving target.  I owned a pair of 2006 the first semi-mass-produced generation of 188 PM Gear Bro Models.  They skied great but looked like they were built by drunken Canucks who got called back to work after getting laid off... mainly, because they were.  The second base grind I put on them went through nearly to the core at the tail.  I also have a pair of 188 Bro blems -- i.e., acknowledged to be cosmetically damaged -- from the following year.  They have similar ugliness issues, but the skis themselves have held up well from a skiability perspective.  At the end of this season, I bought a pair of 164 Bros for my daughter and 195 SuperBros for me, and they are simply gorgeous -- the cosmetic equal of any top-of-the-line big company ski I've seen. 
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by alexzn View Post

I have seen Praxis skis in StartHaus, perhaps for obvious reason: Praxis is a Truckee company.


And an even more obvious reason:  Start Haus does their finish work.
 

Quote:
Originally Posted by beyond View Post

Incidentally, have a new proposed definition of "indie': Not owned by a holding company. As in, "independent decision making."


I like that definition.  Basically, it's the difference between a company that exists to make skis, and a company that happens to make skis.  When I use it, I think there's also a longevity aspect, so I'm not sure an Elan or Fischer would qualify, although IMHO, Kastle and Hart might (because they're really brand new companies with old names).

 

I think I'm uniquely unqualified to pick winners and losers.  But I noticed earlier this year that as my quiver has increased in size, I've dropped almost all of the majors.  Now, my only big company skis are 176 Fischer AMC79s (used mainly for early season getting my legs back) and 186 Fischer Big Stix 84s (previously my crud-busting and variable conditions ski, but really only used this season when my other skis needed to be waxed).  Their companions are the aforementioned 188 Bros and 195 SuperBros, 190 Moment Rubies, 194 Stockli Stormrider XLs (debatable, I know), and 195 Praxis Powders.  A pair of DPS Wailer RPs will join them this year -- hopefully 200cm, but if they don't make them, 190s.  And I'd like to add a pair of ON3Ps at some point too.

 

Why has my quiver gone indie?  If I'm honest about it, I've got to admit that part of the attraction is my distrust of the easy answer and well-trod path.  Even after selling my last Saab a few years ago, I'm still a Saab driver at heart, and I've never considered a BMW.  I try to eat local.  Etc.

 

But a more significant part of it is that the bigs don't make the skis that I want.  I prefer sandwich construction over cap.  I prefer a longer turning radius.  I prefer a longer ski.  And even on fat skis, I like relatively narrow tips -- I haven't liked anything over 140 or so in the tip.  Those characteristics are rarely found in a single pair of big company skis.

 

The reality is that there's no way for boutique, indie ski companies to collectively become the big thing -- it's an oxymoron.  But I think it'll be instructive to watch the indies that try to make the leap, compared to those that don't.  Moment certainly made big inroads this year, moving to a distribution model and getting their skis in the Olympics.  Praxis, conversely, has shown that if you're going to try to run a business, maybe you really need someone who understands how to run a business.  We'll see.

 

On another front, why haven't we seen indie boot manufacturers?  The closest to it might be DaleBoot and arguably Dalbello.  Seems like the level of personalization would make this a fruitful niche.

post #172 of 180
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDad View Post


On another front, why haven't we seen indie boot manufacturers?  The closest to it might be DaleBoot and arguably Dalbello.  Seems like the level of personalization would make this a fruitful niche.


The nature of boot production, and the costs of molds make it uber-impractical. Also, with the quality of fitting available these days, there is very little that you can't get from a major boot company combined with a boot fitter. The leftover unfilled niches are so insignificant as to be almost worthless for anyone to pursue. I say almost b/c there are some minor boot brands that can do a little of this.

 

Dale and Strolz come to mind and they are good at what they do. They are long established however and it's doubtful that they could capitalize a startup these days.

 

Apex is certainly unique but so far seem to be stillborn in the marketplace.

 

The Dodge boot OTH is showing some solid results and promise but the niche is sooooo narrow that it'll likely never go much beyond where it is. IMO, it will make waves in the race arena.

 

The most obvious niche that's available is for someone to resurrect the SX-92 molds and remake that boot. That would make some money.

 

SJ

post #173 of 180
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post


The most obvious niche that's available is for someone to resurrect the SX-92 molds and remake that boot. That would make some money.

 

SJ


I've been saying that for years. It is a good (obviously not great) performance boot that fits a multitude of feet, it has an uber amount of adjustments than are of "set it and forget it" design along with one beer tap lever for easily taking it on and off. The SX is boot Salomon could retail for $349 and it will be one of the best selling boots of the season. There IS a market for a boot for people who are not skiers but still enjoy skiing. 

post #174 of 180
Quote:

Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post

 

The Dodge boot OTH is showing some solid results and promise but the niche is sooooo narrow that it'll likely never go much beyond where it is. IMO, it will make waves in the race arena.

 

Poked around their site a bit.  Interesting, although they look like there's something wrong on the trailing side.

 

What's the price range?  Can't tell from the site.

post #175 of 180
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDad View Post

 

Poked around their site a bit.  Interesting, although they look like there's something wrong on the trailing side.

 

What's the price range?  Can't tell from the site.


Dave Dodge and his partner were out here mebbeso 6 weeks back. They tested with some coaches from SB and some racers including of couple of our shop guys. Every single racer was notably faster on the Dodge (out of the box and without canting). For racers in the sub 50 range, that's saying something.

 

These boots will be in the range of $1200-$1400 and so far, we have three firm orders from folks that skied it and they didn't ask the price. I suspect that others will be lining up once the word gets out.

 

The thing that's wrong is actually a molded in "channel" or hollow right down the back of the boot. Without that channel, nobody could get the thing on. With it, it's actually not bad.

 

SJ

post #176 of 180


 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Philpug View Post




I've been saying that for years. It is a good (obviously not great) performance boot that fits a multitude of feet, it has an uber amount of adjustments than are of "set it and forget it" design along with one beer tap lever for easily taking it on and off. The SX is boot Salomon could retail for $349 and it will be one of the best selling boots of the season. There IS a market for a boot for people who are not skiers but still enjoy skiing. 

 

Wordz of wizzardom......And to think that someone we know callz you dumb.

 

SJ
 

post #177 of 180


 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trekchick View Post




 

Does this jacket make my butt look big?

 

Kastle Blue Back


Si!

post #178 of 180
Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post

These boots will be in the range of $1200-$1400 and so far, we have three firm orders from folks that skied it and they didn't ask the price. I suspect that others will be lining up once the word gets out.

 

Damned carbon fiber.

post #179 of 180

I have enjoyed the discussion on this thread about how one's perception of who is winning and who is losing is skewed by one's location. It made me reflect upon the changes I have seen in what people seem to be buying in our (admittedly atypical) local market.

Skis at Alyeska tend to be whatever World Cup (Girdwood's only ski shop) is pushing. But the trend in recent years is definitely to fatter skis from more obscure brands.

A few years back, you saw standard issue skis from Volkl, Atomic and Dynastar. Metrons and Bigs followed by Mantras, Mythics and Goats. Now, aside from the racing stuff, the racks at World Cup seem to have a bewildering variety of what someone called the "angry clown" school of skis. And they are all getting fatter. Some are incredibly fat.

That is probably driven by several things that may not translate to other locations. 1) It snows a lot here. Alyeska claims 880" of snow this past winter (we are still skiing at this point) and 2) Very little of that snow was anything that someone from Utah would call powder. Heavy cut crud is the normal diet for locals.

We normally do not have a lot of ice (although this winter it was in good supply for awhile), so most people regard ice as an inconvenience rather than a cause for buying an ice-specific ski. But I have been surprised by seeing some very fat skis out and about on icy days. My general observation would be that nobody under 30 is on skis under 100mm wide, even on hard snow days.

post #180 of 180

Just one thought, Rossi is going to do well in the freeride market this season with the S7. Was in a few shops in Vancouver the other week that already have a ridiculous amount of S7's on the shelf and I bet they will all sell out again. I can kind of understand getting rid of the RC112 (even though people love it) because of how well the S7 sells.

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