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10-11 Predictions Winners & Losers

post #1 of 180
4/28/10 at 3:57pm
Thread Starter 
Just a few of my hunches...

Winners:
Lange, the new RS line is fantastic
Blizzard, they have created some very strong momentum
Kastle, the word and reputation keeps getting stronger and stronger
Dalbello, new Scorpion will give a lot of credibility on the high end
Line, people will start realizing that these are not just park skis.

Losers:
Nordica, graphics WILL stop sales
Head, The Olympics didn't help them, lost many dealers
Hart, a great product that no knows about

On the fence:
Rossi, still a year away under Petrick
Salomon, will the Quest debacle hurt them?
Tecnica, what's old is new? air bladder?
K2, Putting all their eggs in the rocker basket. 


Please free to add or question ;)
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post #2 of 180
4/28/10 at 5:13pm
Do you really mean Hart or were you trying to say hart......
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post #3 of 180
4/28/10 at 5:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philpug View Post

Just a few of my hunches...

Winners:
Lange, the new RS line is fantastic
Blizzard, they have created some very strong momentum
Kastle, the word and reputation keeps getting stronger and stronger
Dalbello, new Scorpion will give a lot of credibility on the high end
Line, people will start realizing that these are not just park skis.

Losers:
Nordica, graphics WILL stop sales
Head, The Olympics didn't help them, lost many dealers
Hart, a great product that no knows about
Knee Binding, unproven, underdeveloped, questionable quality and overpriced

On the fence:
Rossi, still a year away under Petrick
Salomon, will the Quest debacle hurt them?
Tecnica, what's old is new? air bladder?
K2, Putting all their eggs in the rocker basket. 


Please free to add or question ;)
 


See addition above....
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post #4 of 180
4/28/10 at 9:17pm
I would tend to corroborate most of the above with a few variations.

Lange: Agree except that the RX line will be even better for the majority of shops. (Not necessarily ours as we sell a huge number of ~~ 98mm boots) There are a lot of good 98mm boots, but the good 100mm boots are few.

Blizzi: Yup

Kastle: Great stuff and I'm starting to feel it but....???

Dalbello: IMO....notsomuch.

Nordica: Their women's skis are huge winners in skiability and the new graphics seem to work for women. Unfortunately, I'm afraid that the unisex ski graphics work for women too.

Line: Already there....no further proof needed. IMO the best collection of Chinese skis.

Head: Company is in disarray but race sales will grow substantially.

Hart: Yeppers

Rossi: On the way back with some good stuff and starting to shed their recent package/cheap ski image.

Salomon: The Quest debacle is probably overblown and shouldn't hurt them much if at all. (They do need some new boots though)

Tecnica: The air bladder is not their big story, the new Infernos are and they are great. BTW.....results from a couple of boot tests Re: the Phoenix will be surprising.

K2: They have been slipping fast. The "rocker" story may save them but.....I dunno. I'm not predicting a big turnaround but maybe a stoppage of the arterial leakage of recent years.

Fringe category.................

Knee binding...............Not even a blip on the screen.
Dodge Boot (racing).....Watch out.

SJ
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post #5 of 180
4/29/10 at 9:15am
Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post

I would tend to corroborate most of the above with a few variations.

Lange: Agree except that the RX line will be even better for the majority of shops. (Not necessarily ours as we sell a huge number of ~~ 98mm boots) There are a lot of good 98mm boots, but the good 100mm boots are few.

Blizzi: Yup

Kastle: Great stuff and I'm starting to feel it but....???

Dalbello: IMO....notsomuch.

Nordica: Their women's skis are huge winners in skiability and the new graphics seem to work for women. Unfortunately, I'm afraid that the unisex ski graphics work for women too.

Line: Already there....no further proof needed. IMO the best collection of Chinese skis.

Head: Company is in disarray but race sales will grow substantially.

Hart: Yeppers

Rossi: On the way back with some good stuff and starting to shed their recent package/cheap ski image.

Salomon: The Quest debacle is probably overblown and shouldn't hurt them much if at all. (They do need some new boots though)

Tecnica: The air bladder is not their big story, the new Infernos are and they are great. BTW.....results from a couple of boot tests Re: the Phoenix will be surprising.

K2: They have been slipping fast. The "rocker" story may save them but.....I dunno. I'm not predicting a big turnaround but maybe a stoppage of the arterial leakage of recent years.

Fringe category.................

Knee binding...............Not even a blip on the screen.
Dodge Boot (racing).....Watch out.

SJ  


        In another time, (pricewise) wouldn't Kastle be called "doctor/lawyer" skis?
Though nowadays, there would be another level above that, "Hedgefundian" skis.
( I do covet the MX 88, bye, bye 1st born son).  
    Salomon screwed up with their tech inserts, but go to a ski hill and 95 out of a 100
would not know what that is all about.  I am interested in the statement that they do
need some new boots?   Any particular segment, or suggested improvements?

    

 
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post #6 of 180
4/29/10 at 9:35am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
  In another time, (pricewise) wouldn't Kastle be called "doctor/lawyer" skis?
Though nowadays, there would be another level above that, "Hedgefundian" skis.
( I do covet the MX 88, bye, bye 1st born son).   
In most times I would agree with you. I had this conversation with SJ regarding the Kastles, where a Volkl Grizzly and Kastle MX88 customer might both have a Porsche in the garage (and a few in some cases), the Kastle customer tracks his and drives it to it's potential. 
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post #7 of 180
4/29/10 at 11:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philpug View Post


In most times I would agree with you. I had this conversation with SJ regarding the Kastles, where a Volkl Grizzly and Kastle MX88 customer might both have a Porsche in the garage (and a few in some cases), the Kastle customer tracks his and drives it to it's potential. 

I like this analogy. The term doctor/lawyer ski has historically implied a ski that is long on image (Volkl??) but may be short on performance or just not well executed. I do not think the Kastle fits that description. The Kastles that I have skied definitely deliver a feel and a skill set that is rare if not unique. I don't yet know whether the consumer is willing to pay the substantially higher price for these qualities. If so, they will get value for their $$. If not,.......all good but they won't find a cheaper substitute that offers the same characteristics.

SJ
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post #8 of 180
4/30/10 at 1:32am
Quote: Philpug wrote:
 
Head, The Olympics didn't help them, lost many dealers

Quote: Siera Jim wrote:
 
Head: Company is in disarray but race sales will grow substantially.

Having trouble seeing this from a north European standpoint, but then I'm not in the trade myself.

Are you trying to say that the Olympics should've helped but didn't (decent results for Bode, Lindsey Vonn ditto, Cuche disappointing, Anja Pärson's Olympic ups and downs must be good publicity)
Adding Aksel, and Kjetil Jansrud who could be huge in GS (and SL too if he gets back to where he was before his back injury), should hike their race profile too.

What's the problem with the company? Is US dealership the issue, and if so, why? The product is sound, and SERS adds interest for 2011.
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post #9 of 180
4/30/10 at 5:09am
Squaker,


Quote:
 "What's the problem with the company?"

To me it is looks. Last year they looked like shit, and no better this year.

I know some models ski great, but I just can't look at them all day.

I wouldn't have most of them if they were free.
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post #10 of 180
4/30/10 at 6:15am
Here in the hard snow world of "fly-over" country where a great deal of skier energy is focused on junior and beer league race programs, Head was strong in 09-10 and strength will increase in 10-11.  At least one shop that I frequent who refused to carry the line in the past has added the race and hard snow line for the coming season.  Head in the all mountain and off-piste category, well that is another story altogether...
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post #11 of 180
4/30/10 at 6:21am
For sure, a thread that will be revisited next year.

I don't understand Head's marketing of skis. Seems they want to make something for everybody and end up trying to please too many. As an eastern front side carver, I like and use their skis, but, they have so many overlaps, Head ends up competing with itself. I can see why shops don't like Head.

I also wonder if Dalbello users will leave the traditional line-up and upgrade to a more performance oriented boot? Fans of Dalbello seem very happy with the existing set-up and comfort level. Would they not also check out the competition as boot fit gets more emphasis at higher performance levels? Agree that it will broaden the appeal of the line.

Any thoughts about Fisher, Dynastar and Volkl?
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post #12 of 180
4/30/10 at 6:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post




I like this analogy. The term doctor/lawyer ski has historically implied a ski that is long on image (Volkl??) but may be short on performance or just not well executed. I do not think the Kastle fits that description. The Kastles that I have skied definitely deliver a feel and a skill set that is rare if not unique. I don't yet know whether the consumer is willing to pay the substantially higher price for these qualities. If so, they will get value for their $$. If not,.......all good but they won't find a cheaper substitute that offers the same characteristics.

SJ

 


Though not sure "history" has anything to do with it, "doctor/lawyer" skis would connote (to me) an easy going, non-demanding,
but not necessarily poor performing skis-- sort of an autopilot ski.  That is expensive.
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post #13 of 180
4/30/10 at 6:51am
My local ski store stopped carrying Head skis this year.   I asked if it was a quality issue, and the sales guy said no, it was a problem with the company.  Since I had my 9-year old daughter with me that day -- bouncing around, on the verge of breaking something -- I couldn't probe further.
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post #14 of 180
4/30/10 at 7:07am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimski View Post

My local ski store stopped carrying Head skis this year.   I asked if it was a quality issue, and the sales guy said no, it was a problem with the company.  Since I had my 9-year old daughter with me that day -- bouncing around, on the verge of breaking something -- I couldn't probe further.


 I am told there is one dealer in the Philly metro market that is carrying Head and they are stocking just two boots and no skis. 
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post #15 of 180
4/30/10 at 5:38pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Living Proof View Post

For sure, a thread that will be revisited next year.


I also wonder if Dalbello users will leave the traditional line-up and upgrade to a more performance oriented boot? Fans of Dalbello seem very happy with the existing set-up and comfort level. Would they not also check out the competition as boot fit gets more emphasis at higher performance levels? Agree that it will broaden the appeal of the line.

 


you ever think comfort, shock absorbation, the ability to actually move your ankle and adjustable flex arent performance oriented?  Maybe your idea of performance isnt my idea of performance. 

Just sayin Dalbello could have a 50 percent market share in LCC, where as at stowe with no dealers they have next to none. 

with all of that said I am curious to try the new boot but its hard to demo narrow boots when your foots as wide as mine.
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post #16 of 180
5/1/10 at 6:36am
Quote:
Originally Posted by BushwackerinPA View Post





you ever think comfort, shock absorbation, the ability to actually move your ankle and adjustable flex arent performance oriented?  Maybe your idea of performance isnt my idea of performance. 

Just sayin Dalbello could have a 50 percent market share in LCC, where as at stowe with no dealers they have next to none. 

with all of that said I am curious to try the new boot but its hard to demo narrow boots when your foots as wide as mine.
 
In the OP, Philpug said the Scorpion will give credibility on the "high end" boot.
I called it a "performance" boot.
In the following thread, Bud Heshman calls it a "racing" boot.
http://www.epicski.com/forum/thread/90779/dalbello-scorpion-the-new-race-boot-on-the-block

Do you really want to quibble with any of these terms? Please tell me why Dalbello is introducing the Scorpion and who is the potential customer? Why dosn't a Stowe shop even carry the line?

Not knockin the existing Dalbello boot. They are much loved and skied by persons far more skilled than me. If a boot is comfortable and works for the individual skier, great!

Time and sales will tell if Phil's projection is correct.
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post #17 of 180
5/1/10 at 4:09pm
Winner:

ON3P, after their first year of production, they seem to have only good reviews and praise for the entire lineup.

Loser:

ScottUSA, after the cease & desist order, they've only managed to alienate a great deal of the market that would purchase their freeride skis.  Even with Timmy Walnuts on the team, most of the NS crowd would rather ski the ON3P line.
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post #18 of 180
5/2/10 at 9:15am
Quote:
Line: Already there....no further proof needed. IMO the best collection of Chinese skis.
What skis are not made in China? besides Kastle. I work in the sports equipment industry as a composite material supplier and to be honest; there is no difference in quality of parts built in China vs. The U.S. vs. Europe. The factories in China are for the most part run by U.S. engineers, from design through Q.C.. so pardon me for asking but do you believe that skis made in China are inferior in quality to those made in Europe and the U.S.(if there are any). Not trying to start a debate, just hoping to get some clarification the Chinese equipment comment. I am in the market for new gear and those line Prophet 100's or 90's are very tempting; as are some of the the Elan's, Volkl's and Blizzards.

Quote:
Lange: Agree except that the RX line will be even better for the majority of shops. (Not necessarily ours as we sell a huge number of ~~ 98mm boots) There are a lot of good 98mm boots, but the good 100mm boots are few.

(They do need some new boots though)

 

Are the 100mm boots more for the person with wide or high volume feet? That's me and every time I try on boots, Salomon's fit the best. Are you implying that Salomon boots are lacking some features/benefits offered by other boot manufacturers?

Just hoping to get some up to date info before I drop a bunch of cash on new equipment for my wife and I, which by the way, I intend to do at your shop when you get more skis in.

Sorry for going off topic on this post but Jim's comments were very intriguing.
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post #19 of 180
5/2/10 at 11:15am
When I speak of the best collection of Chinese skis that's a tongue in cheek barb toward K2 and to a lesser extent Volkl. IMO, both of those high profile brands have to greater or lesser extents missed the mark with a fair bit of their stuff recently. Again IMO, but I think Line has hit their segmentation quite well. Those three are the only brands that I'm aware of with any significant production in the Orient.

The current bestselling 100mm boots for our shop are Salomon Impacts and Nordica Speedmachines. There is nothing at all wrong with them except that they are rather high volume through the midfoot area (especially the Solly) and the heel. Again, nothing wrong with this but for the skier with a wider forefoot but lower volume mid-rearfoot and or heel, we aren't giving them much precision or performance. For that reason, (if we think the skier is pretty decent) we'll often wedge those skiers into 98mm boots and modify the forefoot to fit. This works fine and it's part of what folks come to us to get, but it's a lot of fit work and tail chasing. The new Lange RX line is 100mm wide at the forefoot but with a lower volume midfoot and narrower heel much like a 98mm boot. This boot will allow us to give that customer a good performance fit with less effort on both sides.

The features/benefits thing, adjustments, and other whizbangy stuff is largely irrelevant to us. All we are concerned with is fit because that is what contributes most to performance. Most of the Sollys tend to work well for bigger feet. All good like I said, but just not what we tend to sell a lot of. There are some details on the Sollys that could be improved (mostly liner stuff) but then again, that could be said about almost anything.

SJ
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post #20 of 180
5/2/10 at 11:20am
Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post

. The new Lange RX line is 100mm wide at the forefoot but with a lower volume midfoot and narrower heel much like a 98mm boot. This boot will allow us to give that customer a good performance fit with less effort on both sides.

SJ

I wonder if that could end up being a hardsell to customers used to grinding and whatnot. For me, my perception is that any boot over 98mm is just a recreational bucket. I just assume tat I have to wedge my over 100mm foot into a 95mm shell if I want performance. It'll be great if it really does offer the performance though.Conversely, when is someone going to come out with a 95mm boot that isn't a race boot?
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post #21 of 180
5/2/10 at 12:18pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by epic View Post




I wonder if that could end up being a hardsell to customers used to grinding and whatnot. For me, my perception is that any boot over 98mm is just a recreational bucket. I just assume tat I have to wedge my over 100mm foot into a 95mm shell if I want performance. It'll be great if it really does offer the performance though.Conversely, when is someone going to come out with a 95mm boot that isn't a race boot?

Hardsell? For some sure, but those folks know what they want already....no big deal, we've had them covered all along. However, we see new customers literally everyday that haven't been educated on boots. They are coming out of enormous boots, probably oversized, and they have no clue about underfoot support. Just getting them into the right size is tough enough. Now we have a boot for the right foot shape that will offer the width they really need but a snug fit in the midfoot as well. This all means that we can do our job (as we see it) better and with less effort.  

There are a good number of 95mm and even 93 mm boots in 100-130 flex that we sell regularly to that foot shape and preference set (a ton of women for example). They are not "real" race boots in the sense of having plug lowers and 150 and up flexes.....they just happen to come in race colors. No big deal, the choices are already there and are adequate. No rubber zeppas or "man fur" though.

SJ
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post #22 of 180
5/2/10 at 12:51pm
Thread Starter 
SJ,

When I said the RS line, that also included the RS100 Wide, which is the RX 100. Either way they are a damn fine line of boots. 
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post #23 of 180
5/2/10 at 1:03pm
RE: Chinese made skis - on a recent trip to ABasin, a friend of mine who lives in Shanghai said that some HART skis are now made in China. I brought this up because for at least a while the HART marketing campaign focused on its skis being all hand made in the USA. I guess it no longer makets its products with the USA-made focus.

But in agreement with your comments, it's all about the QC and management and engineering. China also manufactures Audi A6's, BMW 5-series (especially the Long-Wheelbase Version of the 5, which is not seen anywhere else in the world, as most owners of the 5 sit in the back), and the M-B E-Class cars that are sold locally, and all are as good as their variants (I have ridden/driven in them) sold around the world that are made in Germany. Conversely, you have Toyotas made in the USA...and the quality is........well, let's not get into that.....

Quote:
Originally Posted by temeculajohn View Post


What skis are not made in China? besides Kastle. I work in the sports equipment industry as a composite material supplier and to be honest; there is no difference in quality of parts built in China vs. The U.S. vs. Europe. The factories in China are for the most part run by U.S. engineers, from design through Q.C.. so pardon me for asking but do you believe that skis made in China are inferior in quality to those made in Europe and the U.S.(if there are any). Not trying to start a debate, just hoping to get some clarification the Chinese equipment comment. I am in the market for new gear and those line Prophet 100's or 90's are very tempting; as are some of the the Elan's, Volkl's and Blizzards.
 
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post #24 of 180
5/2/10 at 1:34pm
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jkc22 View Post

RE: Chinese made skis - on a recent trip to ABasin, a friend of mine who lives in Shanghai said that some HART skis are now made in China. I brought this up because for at least a while the HART marketing campaign focused on its skis being all hand made in the USA. I guess it no longer makets its products with the USA-made focus.

But in agreement with your comments, it's all about the QC and management and engineering. China also manufactures Audi A6's, BMW 5-series (especially the Long-Wheelbase Version of the 5, which is not seen anywhere else in the world, as most owners of the 5 sit in the back), and the M-B E-Class cars that are sold locally, and all are as good as their variants (I have ridden/driven in them) sold around the world that are made in Germany. Conversely, you have Toyotas made in the USA...and the quality is........well, let's not get into that.....
 


There was only ONE of the Hart skis that were produced in the US of A. and I don't think they have been saying made in the US for a while.  We have seen better Quality control with the Chinese built skis from the previously mentioned manufactures than the ones that were built here in the US. 
 
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post #25 of 180
5/2/10 at 2:08pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SierraJim View Post




Hardsell? For some sure, but those folks know what they want already....no big deal, we've had them covered all along. However, we see new customers literally everyday that haven't been educated on boots. They are coming out of enormous boots, probably oversized, and they have no clue about underfoot support. Just getting them into the right size is tough enough. Now we have a boot for the right foot shape that will offer the width they really need but a snug fit in the midfoot as well. This all means that we can do our job (as we see it) better and with less effort.  

There are a good number of 95mm and even 93 mm boots in 100-130 flex that we sell regularly to that foot shape and preference set (a ton of women for example). They are not "real" race boots in the sense of having plug lowers and 150 and up flexes.....they just happen to come in race colors. No big deal, the choices are already there and are adequate. No rubber zeppas or "man fur" though.

SJ
 
While I was waiting for my boot guy to post my footbeds, there were two people who came into the shop(my local boot guy is slope side) who were at the ski hill on vacation and wanted the guy to "fix" their painful boots.
I witnessed while the other shop guys took the liner(s) out of the boot, then the foot bed and showed the people that there was 1/2 inch too much foot bed past the end of their feet.

If there is 1/2 inch too much foot bed then there is 1/2 inch too much boot, eh?

This is two people in a short time in the boot shop, so I'm sure the numbers that come into the shop with this experience is unimaginable.

Note: one of these people bought new boots on the spot, and skied off happily. The other one wanted some liner padding to get her by until she could take her boots back to the original shop that sold her the ginormous boots.
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post #26 of 180
5/3/10 at 6:30am
I love the Head stuff. I got a pair of Super Shape Speeds from GregM this year and couldn't have been more happy with this front side carver. Picked up a pair of the Raptor boots in the middle of the season and really like the boot.  Maybe its a nostalgia thing for me beause my first good skis were Head.
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post #27 of 180
5/3/10 at 11:26am
All around winners: Kastle, Blizzard, Rossignol
All around losers: K2, Dynastar
Washes: Line, Volkl, Salomon
Best test of graphics affecting sales: Elan, Blizzard, Nordica
Slow decline: Elan, Fischer
Slow improvement: Head
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post #28 of 180
5/4/10 at 4:46am
Quote:
Originally Posted by beyond View Post

All around winners: Kastle, Blizzard, Rossignol
All around losers: K2, Dynastar
Washes: Line, Volkl, Salomon
Best test of graphics affecting sales: Elan, Blizzard, Nordica
Slow decline: Elan, Fischer
Slow improvement: Head

Why will K2 and Dynastar be an all round loser?
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post #29 of 180
5/4/10 at 6:52am
Quote:
Originally Posted by beyond View Post

All around winners: Kastle, Blizzard, Rossignol
All around losers: K2, Dynastar
Washes: Line, Volkl, Salomon
Best test of graphics affecting sales: Elan, Blizzard, Nordica
Slow decline: Elan, Fischer
Slow improvement: Head

Your opinions on this soooo mirror your location.
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post #30 of 180
5/4/10 at 7:48am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Living Proof View Post



In the OP, Philpug said the Scorpion will give credibility on the "high end" boot.
I called it a "performance" boot.
In the following thread, Bud Heshman calls it a "racing" boot.
http://www.epicski.com/forum/thread/90779/dalbello-scorpion-the-new-race-boot-on-the-block

Do you really want to quibble with any of these terms? Please tell me why Dalbello is introducing the Scorpion and who is the potential customer? Why dosn't a Stowe shop even carry the line?

Not knockin the existing Dalbello boot. They are much loved and skied by persons far more skilled than me. If a boot is comfortable and works for the individual skier, great!

Time and sales will tell if Phil's projection is correct.
 

stowe is about tradition, and has huge racing bias. If there is downside to my kryptons its that on GS and above race skis I can feel lateral flexing. Hence the reason I am curious about the Scorpion but not as an everyday boot.
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