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November--fourth warmest on record. - Page 2

post #31 of 50
 I  know that peer reviewed science, as I have participated in it, bears little resemblance to what has been revealed in the climategate emails.  Money and politics are are a real hiderance to asertaining scientific facts.

When people say "follow the money", it is usually a good time to become skeptical.
post #32 of 50
Acorn supplies the hookers for the conventions.
post #33 of 50
I'm getting my "Speedo area" waxed for the big Hawaiian trip! Just the Speedo area tho.
post #34 of 50
you are plan to post some vid of that (please)
post #35 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by tylrwnzl View Post



Not really. If it was climate change more than just the Eastern US would be warmer than usual. There was an article on CNN yesterday about how Iceburgs from Antartica are makinging it Southern New Zealand for only the 2nd time in 78 years. Its unseasonably cold there, its just the natural swing of the climate.
 
Well, that's why I said "Climate Change" and not Global Warming....

But anyway, It seems like we are breaking lots of climate/weather records in the last 10-15 years...
I can't say much about North America, but here in Brazil things are much more severe.

About 5 years ago we had a serious drought in the Amazon, something never experienced before.
Then, earlier this year, the Amazon river got record water levels, flooding lot's of urban areas.
Now they are facing unexpected dry weather again...

This year, in South east Brazil, we got the wettest winter on history, July got almost 400% of normal precipitation.
And this November has been one of the warmest on history as well...

In the extreme south of Brazil, we now have a Typhoon/tornado season, and that is weird, because we never had that...
post #36 of 50
I skied Thanksgiving weekend the past two years.  Today people on our block were mowing grass.  I've never cut grass anywhere I've lived later than mid October.  Rain and cold is bearing down next week so I might not have to.. but man this is really unbelievable.
post #37 of 50
In the extreme south of Brazil, we now have a Typhoon/tornado season, and that is weird, because we never had that...
 

I don't think you understand CLIMATE.  Climate is not weather.  Climate is measured in decades at least.  Your personal experience has very little relevance when discussing climate, because it is very, very likely that you are just fooling yourself and the current patterns are similar to prior patterns.  It is like thinking you know something about the stock market because of good gains over a few years.  In the long run that means nothing, many of us found that out the very hard way.  The EXPERIENCE should teach us, what we thought we knew, maybe we didn't, maybe we were "fooled" by the media and the wishes of our mind. 

Here in the NorthEast I think October may have been colder than November.  That is not wierd, that is simply weather.  I bet there were witch doctors throughout human history that used the changeable weather much to their advantage in gaining power and influence in communities, the tradition goes on to this day...Do you think we need to "sacrifice" a few virgins to appease the Gods, some say yes.
post #38 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by SnowbirdDevotee View Post



I don't think you understand CLIMATE.  Climate is not weather.  Climate is measured in decades at least.  Your personal experience has very little relevance when discussing climate, because it is very, very likely that you are just fooling yourself and the current patterns are similar to prior patterns.  It is like thinking you know something about the stock market because of good gains over a few years.  In the long run that means nothing, many of us found that out the very hard way.  The EXPERIENCE should teach us, what we thought we knew, maybe we didn't, maybe we were "fooled" by the media and the wishes of our mind. 

Here in the NorthEast I think October may have been colder than November.  That is not wierd, that is simply weather.  I bet there were witch doctors throughout human history that used the changeable weather much to their advantage in gaining power and influence in communities, the tradition goes on to this day...Do you think we need to "sacrifice" a few virgins to appease the Gods, some say yes.
 

I do understand CLIMATE as something that can't be measured with personal/local/short term experiences and I didn't experience personally all the events I listed.
But I did experience somehow the last decade, and if you compare the last one with the previous 10 decades, coincidentally we will find lots of "records" being broken.
Maybe 10 decades have very little relevance, maybe we are just entering a new pattern... hope it is the case, but IMO humankind has a real influence on climate.

Instead of virgins we could sacrifice the way we over consume, the way we waste energy, the way we destroy the environment...

But if you refuse to accept climate change as a result of men's influence, then we're just never gonna reach common ground! And I wouldn't bother to try...
post #39 of 50
Though November 09 temps may not be statistically significant alone, resort snow totals here have beeen steadily waning over the past 10 years, But, last year was a little better   I don't believe in any significant manmade global warming, however, I do believe that the planet iw warming and only the sun and our exposure levels can really affect our climate. 
Ski resorts are taking climate chage quite seriiously, especially Utah.  A few degrees higher would just about destroy the 'perfect storm winters the Utah mountains are currently basking in.  Parts farther north should be OK for quite a bit longer than Utah, Arizona, and Nevada.

By BROCK VERGAKIS (AP) Submit

SALT LAKE CITY — Ski resorts across the country are using the Thanksgiving weekend to jump start their winter seasons, but with every passing year comes a frightening realization: If global temperatures continue to rise, fewer and fewer resorts will be able to open for the traditional beginning of ski season.
post #40 of 50
It is very easy to "fool" people with statistics and numbers and fancy charts made by very smart people, much smarter than those who they are fooling is my guess. And once they are fooled, then you take their money, that is the next logical step.

I posted this file earlier which shows "official" Winter(Dec-Feb) temperature means for VT, NH, CO & UT. 
http://www.fileden.com/files/2009/6/11/2474018/we_are_going_to_be_ok.pdf
The "trend" depends on which periods of time you use.  Colorado has a trend of .4F per Decade for the past 19 years, but when you take that back to a period of 60 from 1950 the trend is down .34F.   What that means is that from about 1950 to about 1990 the trend was WAY down and you would have thought we were heading for an ice age.  Glaciers EVERYWHERE  YEEE HAAA!

But for sure there is a certain amount of validity to trend following.  Temperature/Climate tends to go the way it has been, but then is subject to remarkable quick about faces, same as the stock market.  This is how it has been throughout the recorded history of human civilization.  (ie. about 1,000 years, history gets very thin before then)  The change in our climate is nothing remarkable whatsoever. 

I don't really want to get off topic into what might be causing these changes, but you seem to have this crazy theory that you yourself are affecting the climate.  Wow! That is some stretch.  Even if you are only affecting it 1 of 6 billionth, that is something to "worry" about. Whatever you do, if you don't want even more nightmares, DONT watch this,
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Earth2100/
ha ha, now you'll have to watch it!<g>
ABC News ran it, primetime,  so you know it's true, or at least gonna be true, the scientists SAY SO.  The good and "honest" ones that is....LOL_climategate_LOL

This is also frightening for children.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w62gsctP2gc

And I did some research of my own, and I see global warming causes more sex, so maybe that's what we'll do when we can't ski anymore. Hit the pause button and you'll see REAL SCIENTISTS(note: the good ones, I READ THEIR EMAILS!)  found most of this stuff out!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLxicwiBQ7Q

But if you are a man of your conviction, I would suggest do you part.  Unplug you washer/dryer/dishwasher/TV.  Of course skiing is completely out, unless you happen to live in a ski town.  Even then, I just read that Whiteface Mountain/NY  has a $300,000 monthly electric bill at times.  So even if you live in ski town, do your part and stay home.  And how you are going to get to the resort, we'll that's another topic.  Is your Gov't "supplying" electric cars to its' citizens yet in the form of tax credits yet?  Cross country is A OK, I do it frequently right from my garage in the winter, on my own trails, but then I am thinking how often I get sweated up and end up taking  a HOT HOT HOT shower.  Bad Man Me.
post #41 of 50
I'd love to change the world
But I don't know what to do
so i'll leave it up to you
Oh yeah

alvin lee ten years after
post #42 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by skiball View Post

I'd love to change the world
But I don't know what to do
so i'll leave it up to you
Oh yeah

alvin lee ten years after


To all - check this out: http://www.grist.org/article/series/skeptics/ and have a good one!
Hoping the snow falls on your doorstep!
:)

 

 


Edited by TransRocky08 - 11/30/09 at 11:51am
post #43 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by TransRocky08 View Post

 
To all - check this out: http://www.grist.org/article/series/skeptics/ :)

 

 


So, I went to the site, and the first thing I checked was the post on clouds in the models.

They acknowlege:
Quote:

It is true, however, that clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the GCMs. They are complicated to model because they have both positive feedbacks, preventing surface heat from escaping back into space, and negative feedbacks, reflecting incoming sunlight before it can reach the surface.... The ultimate contribution of clouds to global temperature trends is highly uncertain, .
 


But then they make the claim:
Quote:
but according to the best estimates is likely to be positive over the coming century.


This claim is made without citing any references.  I guess you are supposed to talk to skeptics by telling them to take your word for it.

 

Recent work by Lindzen and Choi  demonstrates that direct measurements from satellite data show the overall feedback to be negative, and that all models in the IPCC report use a positive feedback, thus overestimating future warming by as much as six fold. http://www.leif.org/EOS/2009GL039628-pip.pdf

It is interesting that the only real criticism of Lindzen and Choi comes from Roy Spencer.  He doen't particularly like some of the methodology, but his work on cloud feedback also concluded in a negative net effect.

Both the researchers I cited here are atmospheric scientists with numerous peer reviewed publications.  Lindzen holds an endowed chair at MIT and has published over 200 articles.

Neither of them deny that CO2 will cause warming.  They dispute the magnetude is sufficient to cause a global catastrophy, or even really much affect our skiing.
 

post #44 of 50
It's dumpin right now!  December 1st and the snow is flying.
post #45 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jer View Post

Kick ass! Epic is turning into the TGR Polyasshat forum! Now don't ave to other jumping around the internet! Do any of you guys ski on grass?



Ya Jer whenevr I can, but I'm telling YOU for teh last time I'M NOT going to hawiiya with you during ski season even if you dew ware a wax speedo so don't bring it up again. Something else I find entertaining on grass is believer and the skeptics........good name for a rock group?? going round and round. The ~scientists~ are the only ones who know enough to be scared of the skeptics. I gotta go get the oil changed in my Prius so tata for now.
post #46 of 50
The possibility of snow is predicted in Houston this week also.

Snow in Houston.

I'll grant that it may be warmer in some parts of the US this fall than normal, but Houston has definitely had a cooler summmer, fall and it looks like winter than normal.

Snow just depends on weather patterns IMO.

I believe the sun backed off its intensity causing cooler weather, but it may have picked back up again already; but i doubt it. I bet in January it starts being just as cold as usual if not colder, snow will depend on the patterns.
post #47 of 50
Sent to me by a knowledgeable person:

Statement as of 8:42 am EST on December 04, 2009

... Record daily high temperatures and rainfall records set across

the north country yesterday...

A record high temperature of 59 degrees was set at Burlington

yesterday. This breaks the old record of 56 set in 1982.

A record high temperature of 59 degrees was set at Montpelier

yesterday. This breaks the old record of 52 set in 1982.

A record high temperature of 54 degrees was set at Saint Johnsbury

yesterday. This ties the record previously set on this date in 1970.

A record rainfall of 0.77 inches was set at Burlington yesterday.

This breaks the old record of 0.59 set in 1893.

A record rainfall of 1.5 inches was set at Montpelier yesterday.

This breaks the old record of 0.56 set in 1986.

A record rainfall of 0.82 inches was set at Massena yesterday. This

breaks the old record of 0.81 set in 1986.

post #48 of 50
So....it is warm in part of Vermont.  I doubt the whole planet will roast.

Hope you get some snow soon!  Cold as heck here.

 


Edited by newfydog - 12/5/09 at 11:14pm
post #49 of 50
This happens every time its unseasonably warm for a few weeks - regardless if it's spring, summer, winter or fall. People start getting hysterical and the next thing you know: OH MY GOD!!! IT'S WARMER THAN IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE!!! GLOBAL WARMINGS!!!! The same thing happened during the winter and summer of 07. Then the winter of 08 was Powdergeddon. Calm the f down.

It's plenty cold where I am. Supposed to snow in a few hours. Supposed to be getting a real storm in a couple days. Maybe if you guys moved away from the East Coast tha GLOBAL WARMINGS!!! would end?
post #50 of 50
Quote:
. Calm the f down.
 


I know, I know winter is going to come and every thing is going to be ok.  My wife said the same thing.
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