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Will many skiiers & snowboarders suffer during the economic recession

post #1 of 35
Thread Starter 
What do you think? Will skiiers and snowboarders suffer much from the economic recession?
post #2 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by ski guy View Post

What do you think? Will skiiers and snowboarders suffer much from the economic recession?
Yes.

In terms of fewer services, fewer staff, fewer updates, fewer options for hard- and softgoods, and more. Were you thinking about anything in particular?
post #3 of 35
As far as staffing goes, the economy has given ski areas a lot bigger pool to choose from.
JF
post #4 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4ster View Post

As far as staffing goes, the economy has given ski areas a lot bigger pool to choose from.
JF
True. And especially early season you'll likely get the most senior folks. At Copper, supervisors will be doing much of the teaching early season until the traffic picks up.
post #5 of 35
Resorts are going to be much better staffed this year. Having accomplished 30 somethings as lifties this year will be common. There is also less work visas this year so a lot of areas will have a much higher percentage of locals working also.

Capital improvements on the other hand to resorts have drastically been cut. Most resorts over the summer did nothing more than basic maintenance.
post #6 of 35
 Yes.  A lot of them have lost their jobs and won't be skiing or snowboarding.  There's a lot of pain out there.
post #7 of 35
I lost my job last August and only skied three days last season. I'm still out of work but I went ahead and bought a Winter Park four pass last week, and plan at least two other days where I know I can get a special price. That's in line with the previous 5 or 6 seasons for me, but now I have an empty nest and don't have to buy the kids tickets any more, so theoretically, if I were working, my season would potentially be a lot longer.
post #8 of 35
I think the question is "How many are suffering..", not, "Will Suffer.." The answer is, probably a lot -- especially middle income skiers and riders. How badly depends on each situation -- everyone is different in terms of finances and how they spend their money and what their credit/employment situation is like.
 
Obviously, everyone is feeling a pinch. Even the affluent income segment is likely evaluating their financial priorities when it comes to how much they will spend this season compared to prior years. More than likely, there will be signifigantly less spending all-around this season. How much is anyone's guess, but everyone is likely to feel it -- retailers, resorts, lodging, transportation etc.
 
I even know as a fact that my local shop has much less inventory on hand this year due to cuts in production. The manufactuers of hard goods adjusted their production to reflect the bad economy. There won't be as many skis and boots and stuff on the racks this year because obviously there won't be as many buyers in a bad economy. This also means there will probably be less deals at the end of the season as there won't be so much overstock.

Like last season, I think the local smaller resorts will fare the best. The bigger names will likely also see a drop in revenue and attendence. Likely, people will be sticking close to home again and will be spending a lot less on travel and lodging. Lodging and travel are the easiest way to cut corners because these usually are the most expensive part of the ski experience for many families and tourist skiers.  

I wouldn't worry about the indstry collapsing or anything like that, however. Recessions happen about every decade or so; unfortunately, this one just happens to be more severe and lengthy. The good that will come out of this recession is a more responsibile use of credit by consumers and a more responsibile awarding of credit by lenders. This may affect skiing long-term, IMO.  Regarding skiing and the long-term affect, people will be less likely to use credit to make $5,000 ski trips to Vail if it's not in line with their income level. After the dust settles, many won't have the credit lines to make the trips to begin with. This experience will scare many consumers enough to get them to wise up and start spending within their means.
Edited by MojoMan - 10/19/09 at 10:26am
post #9 of 35
You know, it's interesting that the recession hasn't hit the home values in the mountains here as much as I expected. Homes aren't moving as quickly, but the values haven't dropped substantially, either, last I heard. That has to tell us something...

It will be interesting to see how this year goes. Last year was the beast for me, and I'm looking forward to a better year this year all around. Perhaps I'm not alone...
post #10 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssh View Post

You know, it's interesting that the recession hasn't hit the home values in the mountains here as much as I expected. Homes aren't moving as quickly, but the values haven't dropped substantially, either, last I heard. That has to tell us something...

It may just be telling you that the homeowners up there are stubborn.  :-)

I'd assume you would see the same trends as last winter, just maybe a little more advanced.  Of course, if the economy starts picking up more by Christmas, you might see an uptick in skier spending in the spring.

And, of course, everything depends on the snow... if conditions are epic enough, people will find a way to get out on the hill.
post #11 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssh View Post

You know, it's interesting that the recession hasn't hit the home values in the mountains here as much as I expected. Homes aren't moving as quickly, but the values haven't dropped substantially, either, last I heard. That has to tell us something...
 

That tells nothing. The foreclosure rate is much more telling.

As long as the current owners can pay the mortgage, they won't drop the price. Heck, they probably won't even put their home on the market at all.

Those who count on renting out their mountain home to help pay the mortgages are already hurting due to dropping skier visit and across the board slashing of lodging price from hotels and motels. Can they continue to pay the mortgage of their "investment" mountain home? That will determine the foreclosure rate, which in turn will dictate the rest of the home prices.

post #12 of 35
post #13 of 35
Dr Rick, looks like number of units are down significantly everywhere and prices are volatile but have for the most part moved back to 2004 prices.  A statistic I'd like to see is the price per square foot which would tell us what the market is doing with comparable size housing. 
post #14 of 35
The market is starting to turn around but the economy at large is still ruled by fear and uncertainty. All economists aggree that a full recovery won't happen until the following conditions are met:

1) The housing market stabilizes.
2) The credit markets return to normalcy.
3) The unemployment goes back under 5%.

The housing market is starting to show signs of life but it's going to take quite a while for lenders to start credit flowing again and nearly all economists are predicting unemployment to hover near 10% into mid-2011. Layoffs continue accross the board and major corporations are still too leery to begin any expansion.

The only good news is predicting the future isn't an exact science and conditions can suddenly change for the better in certain areas. All indicators, however, point to this being a very slow turn-around. Most everyone is still too afraid to invest, expand, or take any risks. Fear and uncertainty are still the dominant themes. Banks are still afraid to lend and consumers are still too afraid to spend.
 
post #15 of 35
The recession has hit Aspen and the rest of the valley. Aspen has been long considered very recession proof. Everything is down from housing sales to city income from sales taxes.
post #16 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by MojoMan View Post

The housing market is starting to show signs of life...

Foreclosures: 'Worst three months of all time'

October 15, 2009: 7:34 AM ET
(CNNMoney.com) -- Despite concerted government-led and lender-supported efforts to prevent foreclosures, the number of filings hit a record high in the third quarter, according to a report issued Thursday.

 

"They were the worst three months of all time," said Rick Sharga, spokesman for RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes...
 

Warren: Housing Market Getting Worse

Oct 16, 2009 12:11pm EDT (Yahoo Finance)

There's been a lot of talk lately about a recovery in the housing market – even reports of bubbles re-inflating in certain markets.


Elizabeth Warren, chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel, isn't buying it.
 

"We see things getting worse in the housing market," Warren says, citing the pernicious effects of foreclosures, which rose 5% in the third quarter to a total of 937,840, according to RealtyTrac.
 

"The long-term impact of high foreclosure rates on our housing market and overall economy would be disastrous," Warren warns, citing estimates that 10 to 12 million U.S. homes could ultimately go into foreclosure. "We have to get foreclosures under control."

 

U.S. Foreclosure Filings Jump 23% to Record in Third Quarter

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg)
-- U.S. foreclosure filings climbed to a record in the third quarter as lenders seized more properties from delinquent borrowers, according to RealtyTrac Inc.
 

A total of 937,840 homes received a default or auction notice or were repossessed by banks, a 23 percent increase from a year earlier, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said today in a report.
 

“The problem is prime loans going into foreclosure and people being underwater and losing their jobs,” Richard Green, director of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, said in an interview. “It’s a really bad number.”

 

Mounting foreclosures mean U.S. home prices probably will resume falling, analysts from Amherst Securities Group LP in New York said Sept. 23. A “shadow inventory” of 7 million properties are in the foreclosure process or likely to be seized, up from 1.27 million in 2005, they said.
 

The pace of prime and so-called alt-A loan defaults is accelerating as subprime defaults slow, Standard & Poor’s analysts led by Diane Westerback said yesterday in a report. Prime loans are those made to borrowers with the best credit records while alt-A loans are considered riskier because they were often granted without documenting the borrower’s income.

Securities Losses...


"The number of people who can’t pay their mortgages, we haven’t seen the peak of that,” David Lowman, head of JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s mortgage unit, said this week. “That’s going to weigh on us for some time to come.”
 

 

Foreclosures mark pace of enduring U.S. housing crisis

Thu Oct 8, 2009 11:18am EDT (Reuters)

...There are more than 6,600 home foreclosure filings per day, according to the Center for Responsible Lending, a nonpartisan watchdog group based in Durham, North Carolina. With nearly two million already this year, the flood of foreclosures shows no sign of abating any time soon.
 

If anything, the country's worst housing downturn since record-keeping began in the late 19th century may only get worse since foreclosures, which started with subprime borrowers, have now moved on to the much bigger prime loan market on the back of mounting unemployment...

 A recent pickup in sales and home prices in some regions has been heralded as a sign that the crisis in residential real estate may be close to bottoming out, after the steepest price decline since at least 1890. But nearly half of recent sales have been attributed to foreclosures or "short sales" at bargain-basement prices...

 

post #17 of 35
Thread Starter 

Thanks guys for all your input!! This is the reason why I'm on here. The reason why I continue my posts and questions... I love reading your answers and I like to hear both sides of a story.

 

I agree... yeah should have asked "How many are suffering" instead... I know for a fact that we are suffering a bit at my workplace.

post #18 of 35
Thread Starter 
BTW, I was just asking this question in general. So this season I'll be expecting less skiiers... that's hard to imagine :S
post #19 of 35

It can be unexpected how the recession impacts the snow industry. In New Zealand our ski areas all had record skier days this season. Why? Because the Australians and New Zealanders were holidaying at home instead of going overseas. The Australian government also gave every Aussie taxpayer something like $900 to spend to bolster economic activity, but it was amusing how many of them used it for an NZ ski holiday instead, therefore bolstering our economy instead.

post #20 of 35
snow sliding for alot of people is a lifestyle. If people still have the means to go skiing they are going to do it.
post #21 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Rick View Post




 


Alot of charts but the question is: Are these "Homes" owned by "Investors or Skiers" and how many of them are 2nd or 3rd properties?
Most "skiers or boarders" I know, don't own these properties to reside in. They either rent condo's or motel rooms when they ski.
Yes, I know a couple of people that own properties in this category but they are at that location full time with jobs and most of the properties around them are empty most of the year - some managed by property management firms as investments for individuals that are never there, good or bad economic times.
post #22 of 35
Yeah, there will be suffering.  By suffering, I mean they'll be smoking schwag, drinking PBR and skiing midweek passes on unwaxed boards.  If they're truly core, they'll still be out there and nothing can stop them 'cept summer.     
post #23 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by julie from nz View Post

It can be unexpected how the recession impacts the snow industry. In New Zealand our ski areas all had record skier days this season. Why? Because the Australians and New Zealanders were holidaying at home instead of going overseas. The Australian government also gave every Aussie taxpayer something like $900 to spend to bolster economic activity, but it was amusing how many of them used it for an NZ ski holiday instead, therefore bolstering our economy instead.


I find a lot of economic good sense in Julie's post. Spend your money where it benefits the local or national economy. Find ways to bring extra money to your local ski hill - call friends and bring them with you, buy lunch there (assuming you can afford it), buy a lesson etc. I argued, to no avail, in my ski club that trips this year outside the US did not help our economy, and, we could make a statement about supporting local skiing.

Bottom line, put your money into the local economy and not into a TV made overseas. See you at Jackson Hole and Killington on my 2 trips this year.
post #24 of 35
Oh yeah, and lots of ramen noodles, the base of any skier's "realistic cheap food pyramid", just below $1 McChickens. 
post #25 of 35
For skiiers who are still employed won't this economy help them by increasing their purchasing power?  Seems like there are alot of discounts out there to be had.  Not just in the ski industry but in everything.  I just booked an all inclusive scuba trip and it was buy one get one free.  That money I saved I can apply towards ski season and hopefully there will be comparable deals on ski trips.
post #26 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by CR0SS View Post

The recession has hit Aspen and the rest of the valley. Aspen has been long considered very recession proof. Everything is down from housing sales to city income from sales taxes.
 

Our annual Mardi Gras family trip to Aspen/Snowmass this year falls on President's Day week. We've been trying to find decent rates for condos but pricing has jumped 20-30% for that week!  Our crew consists of 3-4 families using 3 condos, renting a bunch of equipment with 5 day lift tickets for everyone.  Do the math, a nice sum of money that they will not see this year.  Decided to go to smaller mountain where prices  are more reasonable.  There's a point where these ski trips become just too damn  expensive.  I would have thought with condo rentals being down for the year that most resorts would be offering better discounts, lower lift tickets, etc.  It seems some of these resorts are trying to make up lost revenues with premium charges during the high turnout week of President's Day.  Thanks New Mexico ski areas for keeping your prices within reason! 
post #27 of 35
I believe we have all the required gear for the year.  If our household were to lose a job  my expected ski days this season would go from 7-10  to 1-3.  It's just that simple, a 40% cut in income translates to a 40% cut in recreation funds, at least!
post #28 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Living Proof View Post

Spend your money where it benefits the local or national economy. Find ways to bring extra money to your local ski hill - call friends and bring them with you, buy lunch there (assuming you can afford it), buy a lesson etc. I argued, to no avail, in my ski club that trips this year outside the US did not help our economy, and, we could make a statement about supporting local skiing.

Bottom line, put your money into the local economy and not into a TV made overseas. See you at Jackson Hole and Killington on my 2 trips this year.

 

Not exactly.

As individuals, we have no obligation to bail out the economy mess made by corperate america. Our ONLY obligation is to maximize the purchase power of our own money! 


Quote:
Originally Posted by NEwes View Post

For skiiers who are still employed won't this economy help them by increasing their purchasing power?  Seems like there are alot of discounts out there to be had.  Not just in the ski industry but in everything.  I just booked an all inclusive scuba trip and it was buy one get one free.  That money I saved I can apply towards ski season and hopefully there will be comparable deals on ski trips.

Yep! Absolutely.

Now, that might translate into making more local trips instead of oversea trips. That's money into the local economy. Call it mutual benefits.

I would never go out of my way to "buy lunch there" if I usually brown-bag it, for example. Unless they offer a "recession discount" that make it benefitial to my wallet, that is.

Bottom line, bargain hard to get the best deal you can get. You'll end up benefiting the economy as a result. Whether that "economy" is local to your town, your state, your country or the whole "global village"...
post #29 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by ragin' cajun' View Post




Our annual Mardi Gras family trip to Aspen/Snowmass this year falls on President's Day week. We've been trying to find decent rates for condos but pricing has jumped 20-30% for that week!  Our crew consists of 3-4 families using 3 condos, renting a bunch of equipment with 5 day lift tickets for everyone.  Do the math, a nice sum of money that they will not see this year.  Decided to go to smaller mountain where prices  are more reasonable.  There's a point where these ski trips become just too damn  expensive.  I would have thought with condo rentals being down for the year that most resorts would be offering better discounts, lower lift tickets, etc.  It seems some of these resorts are trying to make up lost revenues with premium charges during the high turnout week of President's Day.  Thanks New Mexico ski areas for keeping your prices within reason! 

As the season progresses, I would expect the prices to change out there. 

WP expects the competition for the Front Range crowd "to very fierce competition" this season.  Deals will happen at WP throughout the season.  As it was the COO of the joint that told me that, I tend to believe it is going to happen.   Keep your antenna's tuned throughout the season.
post #30 of 35
Ragin'  Cagun  New Mexico resorts are all about Skiing, family, and fun. You can get as stupid as you want, or not. Welcome.
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