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Epic year in the NE?

post #1 of 18
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U.S. Northeast May Have Coldest Winter in a Decade (Update2) 
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By Todd Zeranski and Erik Schatzker

Sept. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Northeast may have the coldest winter in a decade because of a weak El Nino, a warming current in the Pacific Ocean, according to Matt Rogers, a forecaster at Commodity Weather Group.

“Weak El Ninos are notorious for cold and snowy weather on the Eastern seaboard,” Rogers said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Washington. “About 70 percent to 75 percent of the time a weak El Nino will deliver the goods in terms of above-normal heating demand and cold weather. It’s pretty good odds.”

Warming in the Pacific often means fewer Atlantic hurricanes and higher temperatures in the U.S. Northeast during January, February and March, according to the National Weather Service. El Nino occurs every two to five years, on average, and lasts about 12 months, according to the service.

Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-long positions, or bets prices will rise, in New York heating oil futures in the week ended Sep. 22, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data Sept. 25.

“It could be one of the coldest winters, or the coldest, winter of the decade,” Rogers said.

U.S. inventories of distillate fuels, which include heating oil, are at their highest since January 1983, the U.S. Energy Department said Sept. 23. Stockpiles of 170.8 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 18 are 28 percent above the five-year average.

Heating oil for October delivery rose 1.38 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $1.6909 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

To contact the reporter on this story: Todd Zeranski in New York attzeranski@bloomberg.netErik Schatzker in New York ateschatzker@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 28, 2009 15:52 EDT 
 
 
post #2 of 18
If an abundance of acorns signals a rough winter, we are going to get pounded in the northeast. Since July, my three giant oak trees have dropped tens of thousands of acorns, by far the most I have ever seen from them.
post #3 of 18
I have always held onto the belief that trees and caterpillars can predict the future.
post #4 of 18
Animals and Plants may prepare for a harsh oncoming Winter but they can not tell the future. Personally I think the NE will get a strong Winter like last year and the PNW a mild one. However,it did Snow last night in the PNW Mts. which is early for this time of year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iWill View Post

I have always held onto the belief that trees and caterpillars can predict the future.
 
post #5 of 18
I certainly hope so, here in the Mid-A, we haven't had a good Winter since about 2003.  The East is certainly due...but I don't want the West to get totally hosed for it.  We're booked back at JHMR January 9th.  My God I love that place.
post #6 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taylormatt View Post
The East is certainly due
Oh yes we are. Its been a looooong time. I remember when I was in grade school and middle school, we got so much snow they had to extend the school year to make up for all the snow days.

Ive never trusted forecasters/meteorologists, but in this case, Im hoping they're right.
post #7 of 18
 Last year was pretty good. The two years before were great. I hope the forecasters are right. If it's gonna be cold, it had better snow!
post #8 of 18
Don't jinx us.
post #9 of 18
Are these the same guys that predicted a more active hurricane season the last couple of years? I hope not!
post #10 of 18
Oh boy, colder. 6 inches of solid ice instead of 3.
post #11 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by snofun3 View Post

Oh boy, colder. 6 inches of solid ice instead of 3.

Actually, early ice makes a pretty good base to hold later-season snow... :-)
post #12 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mdnitedrftr View Post



Oh yes we are. Its been a looooong time. I remember when I was in grade school and middle school, we got so much snow they had to extend the school year to make up for all the snow days.

Ive never trusted forecasters/meteorologists, but in this case, Im hoping they're right.
 

Yeah. Used to happen all the time. Even in NJ.  I wont speculate on the cause of the change but you cannot deny that it was different back then.  We sometimes ski'd just after thanksgiving in some places also....

I hope some of remember when considering the purchase of skis made in countries with poor to little enviornmental concern.
post #13 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mdnitedrftr View Post

Oh yes we are. Its been a looooong time. I remember when I was in grade school and middle school, we got so much snow they had to extend the school year to make up for all the snow days.

Ive never trusted forecasters/meteorologists, but in this case, Im hoping they're right.

 

Still happens here in Southern NH fairly often...although, the longest school closing last school year was actually due to an ice storm. The oldtimers tell me that ice was not so common back in the day. But, there has still been a lot of snow here the last few years, and my daughter's school year was pushed out quit a bit due to the multiday ice closings and a bunch of single snow days.
I can remember Chicago just getting pounded with snow when I was a kid...the banks by the sidewalks and driveway got so high that we couldn't huck the snow over them anymore. My Dad got stuck in the school where he worked for over a day another time. I heard stories about him walking a mile through drifts to buy milk right after I was born because the roads didn't get plowed for days. My sister still lives there, and it seems like she never gets more than a few inches...even when I was living there 15 years ago, the only big winter storm I remember was an ice storm.
post #14 of 18
This guy thinks we'll be having a winter this year.

www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp
post #15 of 18
I do too  Bill and I'm way less qualified. In fact I would bet my life on it .

Hopefully you guys have an Epic snowfall and have the best season in years. Here's to my buddies on the RT coastMay you find the need for snorkels as you mine the pow stashes.
post #16 of 18
Well I saw a Wolly Bear (Pyrrharctia isabella) that was almost all orange yesterday crawling across my driveway with only one narrow black stripe.  I have never seen a Wolly Bear with only one black stripe and so much orange, which says we are going to have a very warm winter.
post #17 of 18
 The wolly caterpillars I have seen have had short hair along the Maine Coast.  I put more stock in where the paper wasps are building their nests.  Anyone seen how that is going this year?
post #18 of 18
The abundence of Acorns, beechnuts and walnuts in the woods as well as a bumper crop of wild apples throughout the woods might be a signal that mother nature is providing for her animals and a hard Winter.

Haven't seen many wooly bears at all, maybe they're hiding already.

I only hope we don't have three feet of snow during hunting season again. Last year was a bitch.
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