Well, it's rained or snowed here in Jackson Hole almost every day since May 27. Streams are way up, the valley is as green as anybody can remember it, and my spring/early summer skiing has absolutely sucked because we haven't had any cold, clear nights. I have no idea how that translates into weather next winter, but it sure is wet now.
If it helps any, here's the NOAA long-term forecast based on temperatures in the Pacific Ocean:
ALL FORECAST LEADS FROM JJA 2009 THROUGH JJA 2010 ARE BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
CONSOLIDATION FORECAST, WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE UNCERTAIN STATE OF
ENSO AT LONGER LEADS. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR JJA THROUGH ASO 2009
INDICATE GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FALLING WITHIN THE LOWER TERCILE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS INDICATED BY THE
CONSOLIDATION. RECENT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS INDICATE AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD
FOR AN EARLY ONSET AND AN ABOVE NORMAL NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON LEADING TO AN
ENHANCED PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS PARTICULARLY AROUND
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN JJA AND JAS 2009. LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION TRENDS
LEAD TO AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JJA THROUGH SON 2009. THE GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITY OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE INTERIOR AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FROM OND 2009 INTO FMA 2010 IS A RESULT OF BOTH TRENDS AND THE INFLUENCE OF A
GREATER THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF EL NINO CONDITIONS. THE AREA OF GREATER THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM
DJF TO MAM 2010 IS INDICATED BY THE CONSOLIDATION DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION TRENDS; HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF EL NINO CONDITIONS.
You can find the whole forecast at:
My own limited experience is that we take these forecasts with the equivalent of a salt mine.
Jackson Hole, WY North40 Realty
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