On the day of the exact bottom (if that were able to quantify), it will be the time when most people believe exactly what you believe. That is, that lower prices are coming and people should wait.
. I bought real estate at pretty much every market low since I was a kid in the late 1970s to the 2002 low, and it always paid off very well. All those times appeared similar to how it appears now. Extreme negativity about the future based on seemingly very logical arguments.
We should invest together. I can't figure out bottoms, but I hit the exact peak in two markets. As you say, in both cases, everyone thought I was selling too soon and that significant upside remained. Extreme optimism based on logical arguments.
Markets and human nature are amazing things. Last summer when oil was $147 I voiced the opinion that oil would not make it to $200 a barrel, and that $70 would be seen in a year or two. Most people thought I was crazy, and proceeded to explain to me how this time it was different. Didn't matter that I know something about the industry, oil was just going up forever. I never would have guessed $35, but the point is that as you say, the consensus is not often correct.