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Dec 11-16 Grand Targhee - Getting worried.

post #1 of 67
Thread Starter 
With the giant high pressure system seemingly locked into cement over the west, starting to get worried about a December 11-16 trip to Targhee. Any weather experts see any hope on the horizon? It's looking dry as a bone for the next week at least.
post #2 of 67
I've been following the weather pretty closely b/c I was hoping to do Utah in same time frame. I've given up on that. Looking at med range models, it looks to me that Targhee has a better shot. It looks like the blocking high will be in southwest but extending far enuf north and east to keep snow away from SLC whether storms are coming from north or nw. However the high's influence doesn't seem to extend into Wyoming. So they probably have a better shot of getting precip from those directions. I still have a post Xmas trip to Utah. So hoping this high breaks down eventually.
post #3 of 67
A friend and I are heading to CO the next week. I am starting to sweat it too.
post #4 of 67
Damn! I'm locked into SLC 12/12-17; don't need mega-pow, but a little fresh on a decent base would be nice.
post #5 of 67
i'm also starting to sweat my Aspen Dec 13th trip, last year I was in the same situation same time with SLC and while I was flying in the heavens opened up with about 6 ft of fluff to save the days! It was great skiing.
post #6 of 67
after a couple years of advising people NEVER to schedule early season trips except at the last minute, maybe people will start listening to crazy.

Ill be going out for a 2month in april I am pretty sure there will be snow then.
post #7 of 67
Bushwacker, if only that was possible. Unfortunately, for me this time it was SLC in December or no SLC at all.
post #8 of 67
Thread Starter 
Bushwacker,

Don't take this the wrong way, but not everyone has that luxury. I have vacation time I need to use, need to schedule somewhat far in advance, have a free flight and a free place to stay, so I'm not on the hook for much. That being said, Targhee is typically 80-100% open in the beginning of December and are consistently ranked #1 or #2 in early season snow. Figured it would be a pretty safe bet. Not everyone lives near the mountains or can drop everything at the last second to chase pow. We want to get out early as much as anyone else.
post #9 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisBowers View Post
Bushwacker,

Don't take this the wrong way, but not everyone has that luxury. I have vacation time I need to use, need to schedule somewhat far in advance, have a free flight and a free place to stay, so I'm not on the hook for much. That being said, Targhee is typically 80-100% open in the beginning of December and are consistently ranked #1 or #2 in early season snow. Figured it would be a pretty safe bet. Not everyone lives near the mountains or can drop everything at the last second to chase pow. We want to get out early as much as anyone else.

I agree with you Targhee is a pretty reliable resort but its still not a sure thing. Its would make more sense to use those vacations days in march or april if you could though...

FYI I dont live near mountains right now, but I feel no need to get out early unless its easy to do.
post #10 of 67
Thread Starter 
Unfortunately I lose em December 31. Hence the trip. I'll be headed out west 2 or 3 more times in winter/spring though. Already have one trip booked to Whistler early Feb.
post #11 of 67
Can we have a moment of silence. Let us bow our heads to Ullr and ask for a Snowy December. Or ski the East.
post #12 of 67
Thread Starter 
I know really! Snowshoe has been getting dumped on, 44" in the past 10 days. It's about 5 hours here, may need to make a pilgrimage soon.
post #13 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisBowers View Post
I know really! Snowshoe has been getting dumped on, 44" in the past 10 days. It's about 5 hours here, may need to make a pilgrimage soon.
honestly somewhere on the east might be better this time?

Last year I was telling people how good targhee was after being there early last year. But that High isnt moving. Reminds me of 06-07
post #14 of 67
I would rather take the change of going early season on poor snow when i am very much "in the mood" rather than late season, when it is time to look towards other activities and when there is a decent change of skiing slush. sure it may all be covered but it is still hot and slushy, not my idea of skiing! but to each his own. There is a reason that Alta clothes with plenty of snow each year, most peeps just are skied out by that time. certainly if i lived out west i'd be skiing till the end, like i do here for xc one trouble is xmas and the holidays come smack in the middle of the more reliable early time.

so why not just let us whine and wait, we already know early Dec is "early winter".
post #15 of 67
Out west you're always just one big storm away from good conditions. Hope you get that storm!
post #16 of 67
Unfortuantely, the 2 week forecast is more of the same. I keep hoping this high will break down, but don't see any signs for foreseeable future. However, hopefully, once the pattern changes, it goes in the opposite direction and lets storm after storm in.
post #17 of 67
Like Bushwacker, I also beat the dead horse about early scheduled trips. To those who ski a lot but "need to use the days before December 31" I can only ask why didn't you use them during the first 4 months of the year?

I do have some sympathy for the Targhee and SLC scheduled trips, as the historical odds are on your side in those places, maybe 2/3 to 3/4 in favor. But they are not 100%, which they are close to after January 1. Last year notwithstanding, Aspen Dec. 13 is a sucker's bet. You have to be very lucky for that to work out well.
post #18 of 67
I am major sweating my Dec. 18-23 trip to Steamboat. I always go skiing in March when conditions are good, but after some research on snow, I thought this would be a good bet for an early season trip. They have 7 runs open on the very lower mountain on machine made snow. And I keep checking the forecasts all day long and it is still not looking good. Hopefully a big storm will roll in the next 3 weeks to get the upper mountain open.

At least I have my usual March trip to Utah- that is the one I am looking foward to most anyway!
post #19 of 67
To me, it looks like ridge might start to break down on 12-6 or so. Still a little ways out, but hopefully it can't stay in place forever.
post #20 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by wasatchskier View Post
I am major sweating my Dec. 18-23 trip to Steamboat. I always go skiing in March when conditions are good, but after some research on snow, I thought this would be a good bet for an early season trip. They have 7 runs open on the very lower mountain on machine made snow. And I keep checking the forecasts all day long and it is still not looking good. Hopefully a big storm will roll in the next 3 weeks to get the upper mountain open.

At least I have my usual March trip to Utah- that is the one I am looking foward to most anyway!
smart girl march is the time for utah.

maybe everyone in this thread should go to vermont instead.



id say that looks pretty sweet from stowe.
post #21 of 67
>Last year notwithstanding, Aspen Dec. 13 is a sucker's bet. You have to be very lucky for that to work out well.

hold on now, I'm going on the advice of Shredhead and he has skied the opening of Aspen Highlands on that weekend for many yrs, plus some time living in Aspen. HE KNOWS! The snow will come.

And I still don't understand what skiing in March-May has anything to do with skiing NOW, this month of December. Isn't that like 3 months away from Now?
post #22 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by BushwackerinPA View Post
smart girl march is the time for utah.

maybe everyone in this thread should go to vermont instead.



id say that looks pretty sweet from stowe.
March is always a great bet- only been disappointed once. Bushwhacker, you at the Bird again this year?
post #23 of 67
Quote:
Originally Posted by wasatchskier View Post
March is always a great bet- only been disappointed once. Bushwhacker, you at the Bird again this year?
not till april and may till then northern vermont.
post #24 of 67

Dec

High breaking down a little up here. For the past 3 weeks
everything has gone North Up and Over and down into Chicago etc. Starting to break down a little and we are getting a little snow up in the Mt. not much but hopefully more to come.

Forecast looks pretty good for Dec 6-15 and some some should spill down into targhee etc.

http.www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/mode
post #25 of 67
Hang in there,Winters coming to a ski resort near you.

post #26 of 67
What do these maps mean?

post #27 of 67
Quote:
hold on now, I'm going on the advice of Shredhead and he has skied the opening of Aspen Highlands on that weekend for many yrs, plus some time living in Aspen. HE KNOWS! The snow will come.
Aspen averages about half as much snow as Snowbird, plus it's drier and doesn't build a base as well. It's one thing to ski opening weekend as a local and another to spend $$$ and vacation time to fly in from across the country. How many of those opening weekends were Steeplechase and Olympic Bowl open?

Quote:
And I still don't understand what skiing in March-May has anything to do with skiing NOW, this month of December. Isn't that like 3 months away from Now?
If you have to allocate your $$$ and/or time to ski, the quality is often better in the spring than it is November/December. And for the typical skier that flies only once or twice a year, it's very hard for me to understand why that should not be in the January to March time frame.

For the person sweating Steamboat, that's a reasonable speculation. Its early track record isn't quite Targhee or the Cottonwood Canyons, but it's the best of the big Colorado resorts.

I have only once in 32 years of skiing gotten on an airplane to go skiing earlier than January 8. And that time was the week before Christmas 1995 in Colorado, booked about 3 weeks ahead after about double normal November snowfall. When we have a slow start here in California, there have been a few seasons where I haven't skied at all until January, but I usually make it up on the other end.
post #28 of 67
I wouldn't be making my annual North American ski pilgrimage in December if there was a choice; I usually target late January to late February. But this year it's just the way things have to be.
On the upside, I won't be missing two weeks or more of optimal ski season in Niseko & Nagano, like I usually do.
post #29 of 67
still don't know why we need the "I told you so's" to HIJACK this thread, this thread had nothing to do with comparing December to April? I didn't see that question asked?

To Each His Own. I really enjoyed the last two years LCC trips and this year wanted to take my daughter somewhere else besides SLC, (she's had 3). Also, I wanted to take me non-skier wife out West with somewhere to roam besides the malls of Midvale! I already have a ski trip planned in late Feb, and really, I don't like skiing late March/April, because i would actually rather ski marginally open terrain early in cold winter conditions(but even with slow starts last two yrs in mid-Dec were "terrific" at Snowbird), than place my "bet" with the chance of slop that a warm front brings. That is exactly why the destination skiing crowds go to nothing at Alta in April!

I distinctly recall years ago two trips in late March where it was so sloppy at the Bird that we did some sightseeing and strolling in Park City instead of skiing. I know all about the risks of spring skiing and it is not my cup of tea (unless I lived out there). And there is just something about packing those skis while the robins are moving in and the grass is greening that just isn't right.

Also, I have FREE airline tickets for Dec, winter prom & business trip in Jan, and much cheaper lodging and lift tickets for December in Aspen. I'm only skiing 2.5 days and plan on eating the non-refundable costs if the 10% chance occurs and there is not some advanced terrain open, no problem. The last two years I really enjoyed my December trips and they made the wait until Feb very enjoyable. I just want to get some skiing in, "decent" conditions with the chance of being in the mts for a few hours will do.
post #30 of 67
The east seems pretty epic right now. Why not just ski locally instead. Maybe by late december UT will be something to write home about. So far, nada. Which is just like last year.
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EpicSki › The Barking Bear Forums › Mountain/Resort Related Forums › Resorts, Conditions & Travel › Dec 11-16 Grand Targhee - Getting worried.