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El Nino or La Nina?

post #1 of 14
Thread Starter 
What's it going to be this season... Any predictions? Where do folks go for long term forecasts? Particularly interested in the Lake Tahoe area...
post #2 of 14
"Most of the dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region indicate a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions (-0.5°C to 0.5°C in the Niño-3.4 region) through the Northern Hemisphere Spring 2009"

From the CPC.
post #3 of 14
Here's some graphical interpretation of the CPC probabilities over Dec-Jan-Feb;



post #4 of 14
La Nada. Conditions are neutral and expected to remain so for a while. Lake Tahoe has suffered two dry years in a row and a third wouldn't be unprecedented. Tony Crocker is a member here and operates a web site with as much information on this as can be found anywhere: http://bestsnow.net Tony would argue the Sierra is a crap shoot, and doesn't display a strong tendency for good or bad snowfall years to be correlated with El Nino or La Nina.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center doesn't have anything interesting for our region in the 90 day forecast.






If you really like this stuff you can look at the really long-range stuff which is even more meaningless.
post #5 of 14
Makes me question my sanity as I have been contemplating a trip to Whitefish (Big Mtn) for a trip over Xmas break.

I saw this, yet Whitefish calls my name. I know not what to do.

Could that freaking dot be any more dead center over Whitefish? Jeez.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Harry_Morgan View Post
Here's some graphical interpretation of the CPC probabilities over Dec-Jan-Feb;



post #6 of 14
Who really knows what will happen?

LA NINA LA NINA LA NINA
LA NINA LA NINA LA NINA
LA NINA LA NINA LA NINA
post #7 of 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by carvemeister View Post
Makes me question my sanity as I have been contemplating a trip to Whitefish (Big Mtn) for a trip over Xmas break.

I saw this, yet Whitefish calls my name. I know not what to do.

Could that freaking dot be any more dead center over Whitefish? Jeez.
Yes it could, Missoula is much closer to the center, which is reassuring in a way, given how the weather guys are often way off.

Big Mountain (no, I will not call it by that other name), gets a lot of lake effect snow, so they will do OK; I'd be more concerned about the marginal terrain they have there.
post #8 of 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by volantaddict View Post
Yes it could, Missoula is much closer to the center
I guess you're right about that. Thanks. I probably would have figured that out myself but believe it or not, I lost my protractor just last night at the strip club.

post #9 of 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by carvemeister View Post
Makes me question my sanity as I have been contemplating a trip to Whitefish (Big Mtn) for a trip over Xmas break.

I saw this, yet Whitefish calls my name. I know not what to do.

Could that freaking dot be any more dead center over Whitefish? Jeez.
I just got this newsletter from the mountain that says:
Quote:
Breaking News: La Ninà is Back!
Weather Forecasters Use Forecasting to Forecast Lots of Snow
Last night on our local NBC affiliate KCFW, illustrious meteorologist and all around good guy Mark Heyka got to talking about La Ninà, and he is pretty excited about this winter.

He said that a La Ninà has officially formed again in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and that long term forecasts are calling for lower-than-normal temperatures and higher-than-normal precipitation for the next 6 months.

NOAA has also updated their long-term forecasts for our area. Up until last month, they were calling for lower-than average precipitation in NW montana, but the formation of this La Ninà has completely reversed that.

This is great news, as it is exactly the situation we were in last year at this time.

Basically, a La Ninà type situation pushes the jet stream up toward Alaska, so that our weather systems come from there instead of from the Pacific Northwest.
post #10 of 14
This doesn't look good for those of us skiing Tahoe. Persisting drought.

post #11 of 14
The most recent ENSO update published yesterday by NOAA yesterday says:

•ENSO-neutral conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
•Equatorial SST anomalies have decreased (cooled) east of the date line, with negative anomalies expanding across the east-central Pacific, and positive anomalies weakening in the eastern Pacific.
•Aspects of the atmospheric circulation and pattern of tropical convection reflect a lingering La Niña signal, particularly over the western and central Pacific.
•Based on recent SST trends and model forecasts, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the end of 2008.

This does not sound like a strong La Nina. The locals got it wrong.
post #12 of 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cirquerider View Post
This doesn't look good for those of us skiing Tahoe. Persisting drought.
Sounds like a good year for you to make a trip up to these here parts.

Mayby you could finally get some use out of those AK Rockets.
post #13 of 14
Yeah, I was considering trading them in on some Metrons.
post #14 of 14
Maybe it will be the el Mariachi weather pattern = we dont know what the hell will happen until the sh!t hits the fan and the guess of a 5 year old is as good a guess as that of an MIT graduate.

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