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Will it ever snow in the Northwest this year?

post #1 of 29
Thread Starter 
Here in Oregon, a couple of times a week the weatherman makes a statement such as "looks as if there is a snow-producing storm coming in, probably a week away or so". 2 days later, the "snow-producing storm" has fallen off of the 7-day forecast, replaced by a "partly cloudy" forecast. It has happened several times so far this winter. Even though it is only the end of October, I still have a bad feeling about this winter for the Northwest. Anyone else?
post #2 of 29
Whistler got a light dusting this weekend, but I know what you mean. It's been one of the driest summer/fall seasons in the PNW ever. And to think of the great early season start we had last year in comparison! On the plus side, when it does come, you could have over 100cm in 24hrs.

Only 4 weeks to Blackcomb opening. Think SNOW!
post #3 of 29
I think it will be normal precip. There is about a 1 degree warming of the ocean - - - but its not that strong of an el nino. I would say another 2-3 weeks below normal, then 4 feet of snow on thanksgiving day.
post #4 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by dawgcatching:
I still have a bad feeling about this winter for the Northwest. Anyone else?
NOAA is saying a dry Fall for the PNW, but no comment about the Winter.
post #5 of 29
This season has been no different then the past 4 or 5. Only 1995 did we really get significant snowfall in October, and many of the WA resorts that year were open before Nov1. This picture was taken at Hyak last year on November 15th. We didn't get a good snowfall until November 28th...


If you check out the archived "Pictures of the Week" on my website you will see almost every year is the same....when the first snow falls, when the first big dumps hit, ect....

http://hyak.net

No need to panic yet....
post #6 of 29
This October is Oregon's fourth dryest ever with only 0.6 inches of rain. But the PNWet is known for its dry summers and falls so were not in trouble yet. I do remember a very bad year in 1977 when we had no skiable snow in December, January, or Febuary and only 50 inches in March. Last year we had a BASE of 200 to 300 inches.

My best guess is that in November we will have a couple of big dumps and by mid-December we should have 100 inches or so.

See ya skiing.

Mark
post #7 of 29
Western Montana (west of the Divide) enjoyed a moist summer, amazing wildflower blooms, a bumper crop of huckleberries (and attendant frisky and bold bear populations), and has had snow already 4x this Fall. It's snowing tonight in Missoula. Last night it rained here at 3300 feet, but snowed at about 4300 feet and higher. Weather Channel predicts more tomorrow.

Don't know why things would be different further west, other than the effect of the desert-like areas in central WA and OR.

Scuttlebutt among the backcountry freeheelers in Missoula is that we are in a pattern for great snowfall this winter. As usual, I filed that tidbit away and am not making any plans on such a vague prediction.

As long as there's dry, light snow at Solitude for our 2003 Gathering, I'm a happy guy. But I'd be happy to see my season start by the 1st weekend in December.
post #8 of 29
Ask and you shall receive.....all the ski areas got a little snow today.. Here is the White Pass Cam.

post #9 of 29
Well, here just over the divide in Montana we've had snow off and on for two days. Problem is its really cold so the snow's not sticky enough to prevent the winds from carrying it away. We need some nice wet Pacific Northwest mash-potato snow to build an early base just like last year.

[ October 29, 2002, 09:16 PM: Message edited by: Rio ]
post #10 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by dawgcatching:
Here in Oregon, a couple of times a week the weatherman makes a statement such as "looks as if there is a snow-producing storm coming in, probably a week away or so". 2 days later, the "snow-producing storm" has fallen off of the 7-day forecast, replaced by a "partly cloudy" forecast. It has happened several times so far this winter. Even though it is only the end of October, I still have a bad feeling about this winter for the Northwest. Anyone else?
what station do you listen to?

btw, its oregon, either theres too damn much, or too damn little.
post #11 of 29
Driest summer and fall in Whistler I can remember, I think statistically in history as well. Great for mountain biking.

Current weather forecast, accurate because I'm looking outside right now. Warm and sunny, not a cloud to be seen.

Let it Snow Let it Snow Let it Snow!
post #12 of 29
Speaking of the PNW, who is from Oregon? I'm a student at Willamette in Salem. Stoked for snow- it really has been dry. I was in the Olympic Rainforest backpacking last weekend...we didn't even get rained on. Weird. Anyway- who here is livin in Oregon, and where do you ski...
post #13 of 29
Quote:
Originally posted by kb1dqh:
Speaking of the PNW, who is from Oregon? I'm a student at Willamette in Salem. Stoked for snow- it really has been dry. I was in the Olympic Rainforest backpacking last weekend...we didn't even get rained on. Weird. Anyway- who here is livin in Oregon, and where do you ski...
Start posting on the Meet-on-the-hill-planning; Oregon Bears gathering thread and you will meet all the usual suspects. Most ski on Mt. Hood or at Flatchelor, but you should find some skiing at Hoodoo. Keep in touch.

Mark
post #14 of 29
I am starting to get really scared. It has been sunny everyday this fall (almost). And everytime I look at the mountain forecast, the end of the forcast has snow (or at least rain) in it. Then when we get there, it is all but gone.

Anyway, I am out here in Tualatin and as my name suggests, I ski Meadows. I also go to Tline and Skibowl every once in a while, but Tline is too flat, and Ski Bowl is slushy a lot.
post #15 of 29
I see the forecast is calling for warm storms in the area next week. Above average temps in Bend. Calling for a high of 53, the average was to be 50 or 49 through the 9th or so. Every very dry fall I can remember (such as this year) has been followed by a below-normal winter, at least until January. I ran cross country in high school, and when we got to the state meet (first weekend of November), if the course was dry and mud-less, it was going to be a slow start to the ski year. It happened in both 93 and 95. Same story in 99 (moderated) and especially 2000, when we had one of the warmest and driest falls in memory, followed by a drought winter. I just hope it doesn't become a recurring theme due to global warming.

What really sucks is when we get stuck in the "banana belt cycle" where we keep getting humid air pulled up from the tropics, resulting only in rain. It seems to happen more in the early winter rather than later. Then, there are years such as last year, where the WNW jetstream is blowing straight into the PNW, and that means snow, and lots of it.

[ November 03, 2002, 06:56 PM: Message edited by: sukotto ]
post #16 of 29
I don't know about the Northwest, but here in Utah this is what we are hoping for this week

www.kutv.com
Winter storms lining up for Utah

Sunday November 03, 2002

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) A low-pressure system out of the Northwest is expected to bring clouds and moisture to Utah this week. Alta expects a few inches of snow each day.

``Weather charts are indicating a gradual warm-up this week, prior to a possible major change in the overall weather pattern,'' said David James, who runs the Brigham Young University weather station.

He said storms could intensify by Saturday, bringing snowfall to valley floors.

``It wouldn't surprise me if by the second week in November we started getting some fairly regular snowfall in the valley,'' James said. ``This is definitely good news for our growing drought concerns and for the ski resorts. Since early October, northern Utah has received very little precipitation.''

The weekend brought January-like temperatures that were as low as minus 2 in Park City and minus 12 at Logan Peak on Saturday.

Sunday broke with temperatures of 30 in Salt Lake City, 17 in Logan, 27 in Provo, 35 at Moab and 39 in St. George. Dense morning fog enveloped Cache Valley.

Alta expects 1-3 inches of snow each day this week. The ski area has a 17-inch snowpack at mid-mountain and plans to open Nov. 20. Many Utah ski areas plan to open before Thanksgiving Day.

(Copyright 2002 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

[ November 03, 2002, 09:16 PM: Message edited by: TR@DV ]
post #17 of 29
I remember something similar back in 1998. Baker had nothing but dirt on the ground right up to Thanksgiving. Then the first storm hit and there was 100 inches with in a week and it never stopped. That is untile it hit the 1000inch mark. I just think the snow gods are saving up all the pricip for the winter. When it come it will be epic just as so many other years. If you wait it will come.
post #18 of 29
Last year we didn't have much of anything until Nov. 28th when it dumped 3' in a week and most areas were opening the first week of December.
post #19 of 29
Finally! We're finally getting some snow up at Whistler ... woohoo!... Now we just need it to keep going on dumping for a few more weeks steady to make up for the dry fall. Maybe soon I'll be able to try out my shiny new skis
post #20 of 29
Wizard,
That's what I needed to hear!
4 more weeks of snowing in Whistler would be a good base for me!



S
post #21 of 29
It's been snowing in France on & off all week... forecast for loads more this weekend. it's OUR TURN for good snow this year. After a week on artificial snow last December I'm going back the same place same time this year because we're going to have loads and loads and loads. So there.
post #22 of 29
Now I said the snow would return!


Looks like the snow level is about 5,000' and it will be rain/snow through the weekend and into next week.
post #23 of 29
SYNOPSIS...A STRONG JET STREAM...AIMED AT OREGON...WILL SEND A SERIES OF SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES AND SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE JET WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BRINGING A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN.


...WINTER STORM WARNING ABOVE 4500 FEET TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
TONIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW AT TIMES... SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4500 FEET... WIND IN THE PASSES WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY...RAIN OR SNOW...DECREASING BY AFTERNOON... SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4000 FEET. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 3 TO 6 INCHES. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. WIND IN THE PASSES WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH VETERANS DAY...RAIN OR SNOW AT TIMES...POSSIBLY HEAVY VETERANS DAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 4000 FEET...RISING TO 6000 FEET VETERANS DAY. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. WIND IN THE PASSES WEST 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
post #24 of 29
Check out the weather f'cast for WA Cascades. I guess I'll just keep riding my bike. At least I'll be in good shape for skiing. Maybe I'll go hiking in the mountains while they're still dry.

NORTHERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL CASCADE FOOTHILLS-WEST SLOPES
NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-
NORTH BEND-ENUMCLAW-GOLD BAR-
845 PM PST FRI NOV 22 2002...UPDATED

..WINDY ON RIDGES NEAR THE CREST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF FOG. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 8000 FEET. WIND IN THE PASSES LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SATURDAY...MORNING CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF FOG...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING LEVEL LOWERING TO NEAR 5500 FEET. WIND IN THE PASSES EAST 10 TO 20 MPH. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES NEAR 40.

SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY NORTH CASCADES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CENTRAL CASCADES. BECOMING WINDY ON RIDGES NEAR THE CREST. WIND IN THE PASSES EAST 10 TO 20 MPH. WIND ON RIDGES NEAR THE CREST RISING TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 5500 FEET.

SUNDAY...MORNING CLOUDS IN THE CENTRAL CASCADES...OTHERWISE PARTLY SUNNY. FREEZING LEVEL NEAR 5000 FEET. WINDY ON RIDGES NEAR THE CREST IN THE MORNING. WIND IN THE PASSES EAST 10 TO 20 MPH. WIND ON RIDGES NEAR THE CREST EAST 35 MPH WITH GUST TO 60 MPH...DIMINISHING MIDDAY. AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR. MONDAY AFTERNOON PASS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. FREEZING LEVEL 6000 FEET.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY...CLEAR. BREEZY AT TIMES PASSES AND FOOTHILLS. FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 8000 AND 10000 FEET.
post #25 of 29
To the dawgcatching, and any other overly concerned snow sliders:

The answer is: Relax, YES,it will snow in Dec 2002 !
The answer is: Relax, YES it will snow in Jan 2003 !

This is a La Nino winter, and the patterns are just setting up for warmer than usual temps, along with more than normal precip.for the Northwest.

Besides, winter hasn't officialy started yet [almost 4 weeks away,] but you could be in for some of the best, and one of the longest seasons of spring skiing in several years. You read it here first !
post #26 of 29
Was at Vancouver airport yesterday. Saw an awful lot of people at arrivals with ski & board gear; don't know why they bothered. Whistler is supposedly open, but I can't imagine skiing there, except maybe the glaciers where they've been skiing all summer. Pretty brown around here. No end in sight for this warm, dry weather. Patience... it WILL snow... uh, won't it?
post #27 of 29
Wink,
Gotta love your optimism [img]smile.gif[/img] But you're right, it is very early in the season after all. I guess it's the anticipation that's killing all of us.

JR,
I had a pre-xmas trip planned up to Silverstar which looks like it's going to get cancelled for lack of snow. We sure were spoiled by the early season snowfall bonanza we had last year. One thing about the PNW though, when it does come, it only takes a couple of days of steady snowfall to turn everything around [img]smile.gif[/img]

Well back to checking the webcams and weather reports (sigh!) :

[ November 24, 2002, 04:09 PM: Message edited by: wizard ]
post #28 of 29
Wink,
I like your forcast. However, can you order up some good snow in the PNW by Thanksgiving?
post #29 of 29
Hey!

On a cheery note.

I got the first loading lift on Opening Day (Sat) at the mountain I patrol (Mt Snow). Then had to do the line check under the lift before "the guests" could load.

It felt pretty good, Small, but good.

No tracks but mine!

well. for 15 minutes

Life can be a pretty good deal.

CalG
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