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World Cup Overall Races - update, now with SPOILERS

post #1 of 7
Thread Starter 
It may seem somewhat strange, but the races of yesterday and today scarcely changed the "arithmetically predicted" overall World Cup race.

On the men's side, obviously Bode performed short of expectations, but his main rivals did as well. Bode, of course, garnered 0 points for failing to finish, but he's only been averaging 27 points per Super G race so far. Cuche and Raich have both been doing considerably better in SG than Miller -- averaging 61 and 49 points per race -- so their so-so results were both 25 points worse than their previous average.

New end of season prediction:

1345 pts Miller
1319 pts Raich
1306 pts Cuche

For the ladies, while it's a bit bizarre to consider finishing in second by 13 hundredths substandard, Vonn's been so dominant this year that the 80 pts she earned was slightly (2 pts) worse than her average. Hosp's result was consistent with her past performance, Schild & Goergl's were just slightly better, and only Riesch's DNF was significantly off previous form.

New end of season prediction:

1497 pts Vonn
1250 pts Hosp
1217 pts Riesch
1104 pts Goergl
1095 pts Schild

What's much more likely to shake things up is tomorrow's supercombined, as there's only been one previous combined this year (and there's one more after Whistler). If, for example, Vonn doesn't finish and Hosp were to win or place second, Hosp would pass Lindsey in the arithmetical prediction.
post #2 of 7
"13 hundredths"? More like 13 thousandths today!

And both Vonn and Mancuso dumped huge amounts of time on the course, so they're primed right now. As far as the overall goes, Vonn will need to keep her wits sharp, as Hosp and Riesch are strong in tech events.
post #3 of 7
Thread Starter 
Oops. Yeah, I misread the results sheet: make than one-one-hundredth of a second. Not much for 20 points to turn on, but that's the way it works.

The biggest problem with the method of simply extrapolating past results to future ones for the women is the combined. There's only been one race, and Kildow won it while none of Hosp, Schild and Goergl finished. It's highly unlikely that Kildow will win both of the remaining races, or that Hosp (in particular), Schild and Goergl will be completely shut out. On the other hand, both the remaining ones are in the super-combined format, which should favor Vonn, so long as she finishes the slalom and isn't too careful to do so.

After this weekend, the projection will become more reliable.
post #4 of 7
for the dh globe is getting heated up! 2X downhill at kvitfjell .. Yes!
post #5 of 7

vonn is victorious!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://web.wcsn.com/article/news.jsp...n_n ews&dpre=

well vonn already took home the downhill title and i have a feeling that she is taking the overall as well! go lindsey!!!!!!!!!!!!
post #6 of 7
After Friday's race in Kvitfjell (the makeup race for Val d'Isere), Bode gained on his nearest rivals:

Overall Placing w/points (placing in Kvitfjell DH #1 in parentheses):

1. Bode Miller 1183 (2nd)
2. Benni Raich 1058 (37th)
3. Didier Cuche 1038 (6th)

Miller had a great race, with room left for improvement in the second race on Saturday. Werner Heel (ITA) won his first World Cup race on Friday, with a perfect line and execution.

The current DH standings (reuslts from DH #1 in paren):

1. Didier Cuche 504 (6th)
2. Bode Miller 479 (2nd)
3. Michael Walchhofer 367 (11th)
4. Marco Sullivan 278 (DNF)
5. Andrej Jerman 252 (20th)

So Sully can still move up to 3rd, but it's a long-shot. And Miller can win the DH globe if he continues to perform like this, and Cuche has more lower placings.

It's gonna be a fun month, this March!
post #7 of 7
Ah, that was a race that made me remember why I follow the sport. Some great fast turns in there. Bode was fast right from the start, but a bit sloppy in places, which ultimately cost him the win. Hope those 20 points don't come back to haunt him. He did also turn in the best single turn I've ever seen on a downhill course, one of the last curves near the bottom. Watch it if you can. Really gives you the idea of how giant slalom technique has transformed modern downhill. Heel was less flashy than Miller but basically made no mistakes.
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