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World Cup Overall Races

post #1 of 12
Thread Starter 
As already noted, we're in the unusual (but not unprecedented) position of having American racers leading both the women's and men's overall races (oh, okay, tied for the women's overall lead), and with the schedule about three-quarters complete.

In trying to predict where it will all turn out, it makes sense to look at the remaining schedule. In particular, things like (i) all five of the five men's combined races -- in which Miller cleaned up in the points -- have already taken place and (ii) on the women's side there are (slightly) more downhills than anything else remaining, and Vonn has been pretty nearly dominant in these.

Using a little simple arithmetic -- taking the top racers' average points per race in each event separatly, and multiplying it be the number of events remaining -- yields these basic predictions for the year-end:

The Men's race is absurdly close:
1383 pts - Miller
1354 pts - Raich
1341 pts - Cuche

The Women's a bit less so:
1500 pts - Vonn
1249 pts - Hosp
1249 pts - Riesch
1088 pts - Schild
1088 pts - Goergl

More subjective judgments cut all sorts of different ways:
- Vonn's total is inflated by the fact there's only been a statistically-not-so-significant ONE combined for the women so far, and she won it. She's not really likely to win all three of the remaining ones.
- The men have two downhills at Kvitfjell, where Cuche won last year.
- Bode's past tendency to make everything come down to the wire.
- Vonn's possible past big-race fragility.
- Two races to come for each gender that are in a reasonable approximation of the US racers' home, rather than Europe.
post #2 of 12
How many of each discipline left in the season?

SL, GS, SG & DH?
post #3 of 12
Thanks for the analysis, sj. I always look forward to your breakdowns as we enter the "crunch time".

This will be exciting.

post #4 of 12
Interesting indeed! Thanks for crunching the numbers!

More than once this season I've reflected on the fact that Svindal had a solid lead in the overall before his injury. It's really impossible to project what he would have done this season based off the first four races, but I'm sure he would be giving Raich, Bode, and Cuche a run for it.
post #5 of 12
Thread Starter 
How many of each discipline left in the season?
For the men: 3 of each, except 2 slaloms (no combineds).

For the women (or, as the slightly anachronistic FIS would have it, the ladies): 3 downhills, 2 each of SL, SG and combined,* and 1 SG.

I've reflected on the fact that Svindal had a solid lead...
Yeah, I think Svindal was clearly the favorite before his injury, and likely will be again when he comes back, though there's always a bit of a question mark after a big injury.
post #6 of 12
Thread Starter 
An up-to-date note: Vonn had the fastest training time at Whistler today. Two of the three Canadian contenders (Janyk and VanderBeek) weren't far behind, in 2nd and 4th. Emily Brydon was a ways back, but that could just be a matter of the difference between training and racing. All three of the Canadians are legitimate DH threats, and they're really at home: Janyk and Brydon grew up in BC, and VanderBeek lives there nowadays.
post #7 of 12
Less slalom makes it more likely for Bode to take it. Less points to Bennie. Cuche doesnt race technical, is 200 points behine Bode, and will loose there.
post #8 of 12
Bode really dodged some bullets in those last two slaloms.

I figure:
Raich picks up 100 points on Bode in the two slaloms left.
Bode picks up 150 points on Raich in the three downhills left.
Raich is maybe 100 points better than Bode in the three GS's.
They're about even in Super G.

That would be enough for Bode to win. Cuche looks like a non-factor. He's not so much better than Miller in any event that he can make up the gap.
post #9 of 12
I agree, Cuche is out and don't think Raich will be able to recover enough points in SL and Sg to catch up.

I'm mainly exited that Maria Riesch is doing so well!
The Germans have had a hard time the past couple of years and it's great to see they're getting back on their feet.
post #10 of 12
They're about even in Super G
Well, so far I'm wrong (and not in any good way).
post #11 of 12
what is more interesting than the overall to me is the DH globe. 65 points between Cuche and Miller who were both on song. Given the month or so between subsequent downhills wonder how that will affect their form.
post #12 of 12
Vonn clinches World Cup downhill title

Associated Press
February 22, 2008
WHISTLER, British Columbia - Lindsey Vonn of Burnsville, Minn., clinched the World Cup downhill title Friday, becoming the first American woman to claim the crown since Picabo Street in 1996.
"It's great to seal the deal with two races left," said Vonn, who also leads the World Cup overall standings. "I don't have to worry about that anymore. That's a big check off on my lifetime goals. It definitely feels great."
Nadia Styger of Switzerland won the race in 1 minute, 45.30 seconds. Vonn made a mistake near the bottom of the course and finished 0.01 behind Styger.
American Julia Mancuso finished third in 1:45.49 on the same course that will be used for the 2010 Winter Olympics. Britt Janyk of Canada was fourth in front of a hometown crowd.
"I was a little bummed out that I was second by a hundredth," Vonn said. "I'm still happy. Second is awesome."
Vonn, a four-time World Cup downhill winner with two runner-up finishes this season, has 655 points. Her nearest rival, Renate Goetschl of Austria, has 368 points after a fifth-place finish Friday.
Janyk, who has a win and a third-place finish this season, is third in the downhill standings with 350 points.
"I'm satisfied and a little frustrated," she said. "I was going for it. I know I can win here and this was a great way to start. I'm right in there with the other girls."
Styger captured her fourth career victory but first in downhill. Her other wins were in super-giant slalom.
"It's a great thing to know I can win on the slope that is the downhill in 2010," she said. "For that I am very happy. Now I know I can be fast here."
The women will compete in a super-combined Sunday — a super-giant slalom and slalom — and won't race again here until the Olympics.
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