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Snowpack and drought in the west - Page 3

post #61 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garrett View Post
Yes, well, in any case a La Niña year correlates to a high chance of suckage for me.
Boy, you sure do sound bound and determined to have the $h!ttiest year possible!

Hope that works out for ya, Sunshine.
post #62 of 82
Hey, I'll be freakin' psyched if that is wrong. In any case, I'm storing up gas and lift ticket money...
post #63 of 82
[quote=newfydog;787723]I"m sorry if I neglected to present my qualifications to the group.

just a suggestion in general so I can sort the material, no fingers aimed directly anywhere. thanks for the infor
post #64 of 82
Here's a bit more on the accuracy of long term predictions:

From NOAA, in August:

"SUMMARY
NOAA is predicting a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season, according to a consensus of scientists."
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/out...urricane.shtml

It is almost over and here's your 5% chance of less than normal...47% below normal.



I don't know if snowfall is any harder or easier to predict than tropical storms, but it shows how wrong they can be, even when a "consensus of scientists" are making the prediction.
post #65 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by newfydog View Post
I don't know if snowfall is any harder or easier to predict than tropical storms, but it shows how wrong they can be, even when a "consensus of scientists" are making the prediction.
Wrong is not the appropriate word. The only way that word would be applied properly would be to compare these predictions to the realities for a suitably large sample of years and determine if the confidence was....wrong.

What you've said is about as ignorant as saying my weatherman is wrong because it didn't rain today after he predicted a 10 percent chance of rain. Meaningless statement. If my weatherman predicted a 10 percent chance of rain every day for the next month and it never rained, I could make a pretty solid argument that he was wrong.

Your ideologically defined point of view cloaked in lots of tenuously relevant data and statements full of weasel words is becoming a bit tiring.
post #66 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garrett View Post

Your ideologically defined point of view
I don't see where his POV is "ideologically defined". Common sense isn't an ideology. People with Ph.Ds are not infallible. Some of the greatest scientists in the world will be the first to tell you that they know about 1% of what there is to know about the world or the universe. In 1975 many scientists said we were heading toward a new ice age. The year after Katrina was supposed to be one cat 5 hurricane after another. But hey - if it makes you happy to call others ignorant because they have a different viewpoint than you, more power to ya. Hope you ski on gravel all winter like you seem to be bound and determined to.
post #67 of 82
Unbunch your panties for a minute and realize that what I wrote was about a statement that was simply nonsense.

Do they teach statistics at Alta, or should I link you to a decent text? If I say something is likely and it doesn't happen, I'm not wrong unless I make a habit of it. A mildly clever person could probably show that weather predictions are of dubious value, but newfydog hasn't and you sure as heck aren't going to.

Thanks for the snow wishes pal.
post #68 of 82
Hmm...I've heard it said that Meteorologist and Economist are the only two professions where you can be wrong your entire life and still be considered an expert!
post #69 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by doogiedoc View Post
Hmm...I've heard it said that Meteorologist and Economist are the only two professions where you can be wrong your entire life and still be considered an expert!
Apocryphal, but funny: "Economists have predicted 12 of the last 9 recessions." Nobel Prize winner Paul Samuelson.

/meteorology certainly has its limitations, but at least it isn't politics repackaged for business schools.
post #70 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garrett View Post
Unbunch your panties for a minute and realize that what I wrote was about a statement that was simply nonsense.

Do they teach statistics at Alta, or should I link you to a decent text? If I say something is likely and it doesn't happen, I'm not wrong unless I make a habit of it. A mildly clever person could probably show that weather predictions are of dubious value, but newfydog hasn't and you sure as heck aren't going to.

Thanks for the snow wishes pal.
1. I'm not wearing any underwear right now.

2. I'm not anywhere near Alta right now.

3. OK - so NOAA was actually 5% right because they said there was a 5% chance for a weak hurrican season. It was a weak season, so they were right. 5% right. They were also 95% wrong, but who looks at that? They were 5% right. That's what really matters. Any forcast that predicts an 85% chance of an above average hurricane season is about 85% dubious to me. But not you - they did get it 5% right, so they got it right, right? Right.

4. I wished you gravel because it really seems like that's what you want. The drought isn't gonna kill the season? Damn! OK - what about GLOBAL WARMING!!!? That might actually produce more snow? Damn!! OK - what about La Nina?? That's gotta kill winter for sure!! Lighten the hell up - people have been skiing at Alta for a couple weeks already - that's WAY earlier than last year. The glass is not half empty.
post #71 of 82
I'm actually a pretty big optimist, especially when I'm referring to how much I kick ass at skiing, sex, baiting trolls.

OTOH, the cool thing about being a pessimist is that you get an above average number of pleasant surprises...
post #72 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garrett View Post

OTOH, the cool thing about being a pessimist is that you get an above average number of pleasant surprises...
Only about 5% of the time..
post #73 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jer View Post
Only about 5% of the time..
Jer, that sounds pretty optimistic...
post #74 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garrett View Post
Your ideologically defined point of view cloaked in lots of tenuously relevant data .
Still waiting for you to bring one iota of data, one link, one quote from an article. If you can contribute truly relevant data, please do.
post #75 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jer View Post
Only about 5% of the time..

96.83 % of all statistics cited are made up on the spot.
post #76 of 82
http://www.venganza.org/piratesarecool4.gif

Dude - if we don't get WAY more pirates, like, QUICK we're screwed!! GAME OVER!!
post #77 of 82
Ah ha! That's why you have been blessed with good early snow out there!

Filipino crew among 23 seized off Somalia -- piracy watchdog



Agence France-Presse
Last updated 05:38pm (Mla time) 10/29/2007


KUALA LUMPUR -- (UPDATE) A Japanese chemical tanker with 23 Filipino, Korean, and Myanmar crew on board has been hijacked off the coast of northern Somalia,.....
He said that for the past two weeks there has been a spike in piracy activity .
post #78 of 82
Ermm, no, that isn't how it works. You posted the data: you get to make a solid point with it, as opposed to cheap pot shots. I used to play the same game you are playing, but now I much prefer taking the same shots from the cheap seats. Less work, just as entertaining.

When I make a statement that deserves evidence, I'll be glad to provide it for you. For instance: Regarding my comment about my situation and La Niña, see Tony Crocker's excellent website. Honestly I make an effort not to make statements like that, as I don't really enjoy the work involved in properly supporting them.

I'm a Canuckistanian for Halloween, so I'm going to head over to the beer store with the optimistic belief that someone has started importing a dry Canadian lager.
post #79 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jer View Post
http://www.venganza.org/piratesarecool4.gif

Dude - if we don't get WAY more pirates, like, QUICK we're screwed!! GAME OVER!!
http://cargolaw.com/presentations_pirates.html


read the article if you are bored. looks like we are alll goood...pirates are popping up everywhere.
post #80 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garrett View Post
http://cargolaw.com/presentations_pirates.html


read the article if you are bored. looks like we are alll goood...pirates are popping up everywhere.
Those aren't real pirates. Real pirates have peg legs and hooks and funny hats and swords and parrots and say "Arrrr!" and stuff. Those guys are just posers.
post #81 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by doogiedoc View Post
Hmm...I've heard it said that Meteorologist and Economist are the only two professions where you can be wrong your entire life and still be considered an expert!
Hey! I take umbrage at that!

I'd like you all to remember Fielder's first law of forecasting: "If you are ever right, never let them forget it."

Mike (a card carrying economist)
post #82 of 82
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jer View Post
Those aren't real pirates. Real pirates have peg legs and hooks and funny hats and swords and parrots and say "Arrrr!" and stuff. Those guys are just posers.
Beg to differ, that one in the picture is clearly a gaper...
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