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The possible return of El Nino

post #1 of 5
Thread Starter 
Watching the weather channel, and they say this little "bad" boy maybe making a comeback.

I know his little sister, La Nina was more dramatic in the weather havoc she wrought...so if el Nino comes back what can we expect ? What happened last time?

Will it be a return to a more "normal" winter nation wide ?
post #2 of 5
Good question. You observation is right re. El Nino bringing milder weather.

1997-98 El Niño Impacts for the United States

Reference
Changnon, S.A.  1999.  Impacts of 1997-98 El Niño-generated weather in the United States.  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80: 1819-1827.

What was done

The author assessed the major impacts of weather events attributable to the El Niño episode of 1997-98 on human lives and the economy of the United States.

What was learned

Impacts were discussed in terms of losses and benefits.  For the United States as a whole, losses included approximately 4.5 billion dollars in property, agriculture, industry, and governmental aid, as well as a total 189 lives.  Benefits included approximately 19.5 billion dollars resulting primarily from reduced energy costs, industry sales, and the lack of normal hurricane damage.  A total of 850 lives were estimated saved due to a lack of bad winter weather.  Regionally, there was a mix of winners and losers in terms of positive and negative impacts.

What it means

The net economic effect of the 1997-98 El Niño event was "surprisingly positive," in contrast to what was often reported in the media, which "tends to focus only on the negative outcomes."  As this study shows, warmer weather tends to bring greater economic benefits to the United States as a whole, as well as save lives.
post #3 of 5
Reference
Muller, R.A. and Stone, G.W.  2001.  A climatology of tropical storm and hurricane strikes to enhance vulnerability prediction for the southeast U.S. coast.  Journal of Coastal Research 17: 949-956.

What was done
The authors analyzed historical data relating to tropical storm and hurricane strikes along the southeast U.S. coast from South Padre Island, Texas to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina for the 100-year period 1901-2000.

What was learned
Temporal variability of tropical storm and hurricane strikes was found to be "great and significant," with most coastal sites experiencing "pronounced clusters of strikes separated by tens of years with very few strikes."  With respect to the climate alarmist claim of a tendency for increased storminess during warmer El Niño years, the data just didn't cooperate.  For tropical storms and hurricanes together, the authors found an average of 1.7 storms per El Niño season, 2.6 per neutral season, and 3.3 per La Niña season.  For hurricanes only, the average rate of occurrence ranged from 0.5 per El Niño season to 1.7 per La Niña season.

What it means
"Clearly," say the authors, "more tropical storm and hurricane events can be anticipated during La Niña seasons and fewer during El Niño seasons," which is just the opposite of what climate alarmists keep telling us.  However, it's the identical story we keep hearing again and again from data obtained all around the world, as documented in our Subject Index under the heading ENSO (Relationship to Extreme Weather).
post #4 of 5
Good grief, maybe you should post shortcuts to your constant cut & paste references? Have mercy on AC's bandwidth payments?!
post #5 of 5
JimBobBubba

I thought your posts were excelent. They were to the point, and they were not too long. Thank you for the very usefull information.

TT
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