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What's in Store for UT in 07/08?

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
Given that I'm an amateur climatology freak, I've done some work on putting together a forecast for Northern UT this upcoming season. Now, please note that *any* long range forecast, especially from amateurs like me, are at best slightly more informed than a monkey throwing darts.

OK, here's my prediction:

Colder than it's been in the recent past, and a bit snowier.

Here's why:

There are two factors that can somewhat reliably be used in long range forecasting; ENSO (El Nino or La Nina) events and previous analog history (well, there are some other more sophisticated models that *attempt* to forecast, but they are still inexact science). Anyway, the ENSO model shows that a continued weak cooling of the Eastern and Tropical Pacific is in effect. There is now a 60% chance of La Nina conditions occuring this Winter.

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO...QuickLook.html

That means that for Utah, we tend to do neutral to fairly well in terms of cold and storminess.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/projects/LaNinaSLC.htm

Now, analog models (predicting the future by studying the past) are another approach. This has been a record hot/dry summer. Looking at the 10 hottest years on record and then looking at the next winter yeilds interesting results:

2 are below average in snow
8 are above average

http://www.goldcoastwx.com/slc_climo/slc_climo.html

That's a pretty compelling percentage.

So there you have it. I could be waaaaay off, but what fun is it if you don't go out on a limb? I won't get to enjoy too much of this [early] season anyway since I'm going in for shoulder surgery this Thursday.

Good luck to those of you that do get out for some early turns,

Teleprophet [Powdr]
post #2 of 16
I predict fire will rain down from the sky and mankind will reap what it has sown.
post #3 of 16
Yeah, like when we got that tornado and it just missed the temple and hit the only decent dance club in town- the gay disco. :

Great forcast though. I figure the law of averages owes us a few 24" dumps...
post #4 of 16
more snow than last is my prediction.

so says the vice president of "The Powder Day Saints"
post #5 of 16
Hopefully, the forcasters are calling for all sorts of big dumps before and during my Dec. 22-29 trip to Utah.
post #6 of 16
I'm just going to have to book my hotel in SLC now!

So what does your crystal ball say about Feb 9-16?
post #7 of 16
It says 2/9-16 good, 2/20-29 GREAT!!
post #8 of 16
Here's what I want...

Overall warmer and wetter that average in the valley. A storm every 3-5 days that brings rain in the valley, snow in the mountains. No inversion (last year from beginning of January to beginning of Feb). In March after there's 150" on the ground at 8000 feet, lots of warm sunny days with great spring skiing which lasts until the beginning of June.

Unfortunately, I think we're going to have less than average snowpack in the mountains.
post #9 of 16
why do you say that? any science behind it? or just an opinion?
post #10 of 16
Not that I have anything against opinion -- or even the occasional wild-ass guess when you get down to it.
post #11 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimintokyo View Post
why do you say that? any science behind it? or just an opinion?
I assume your question is directed toward me.

I say this mostly because la nina setting up. Also, lately it seems to be normal to have below normal precip.
post #12 of 16
I don't get it. Powdr writes that a la nina means neutral to fairly good.
I'm among the meteorologically challenged (I look out the window), but only one of you can be right, so which one?
post #13 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jer View Post
I predict fire will rain down from the sky and mankind will reap what it has sown.
Like this?
post #14 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by UtahPowderPig View Post
Here's what I want...

Overall warmer and wetter that average in the valley. A storm every 3-5 days that brings rain in the valley, snow in the mountains. No inversion (last year from beginning of January to beginning of Feb). In March after there's 150" on the ground at 8000 feet, lots of warm sunny days with great spring skiing which lasts until the beginning of June.

Unfortunately, I think we're going to have less than average snowpack in the mountains.

Rain in the valley means it warm, warm means heavier snow in the mountains. I love those days where it's cold enough to have 8% snow on the driveway and you just know that it's 3% blower on the hill.

So I guess my perfect scenario is for every storm to come in warm and windy to smooth the base and bond up and then switch to a foot or so of blower on top.
post #15 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by zion zig zag View Post
Rain in the valley means it warm, warm means heavier snow in the mountains.
I've found that that's not always true. It can happen that way, but I don't think there's a real correlation. I've skied countless days in perfect light/dry Utah powder up on the hill but with rain at my house.

Quote:
I love those days where it's cold enough to have 8% snow on the driveway and you just know that it's 3% blower on the hill.
Snow in the valley means it takes me a hour each way to get to work, which REALLY cuts in to my skiing time.
post #16 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimintokyo View Post
I don't get it. Powdr writes that a la nina means neutral to fairly good.
I'm among the meteorologically challenged (I look out the window), but only one of you can be right, so which one?
Who knows. IMHO, there's little science in long range forecasts. This is just my feeling ( based on skiing and watching the weather for countless years ). Hopefully the mountains get tons of powder. Time will tell. Even on a bad year, the skiing here is pretty darn good.
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