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mountain real estate price trends?

post #1 of 13
Thread Starter 
I don't live in one of the overheated real estate markets but even here house prices are down and inventory is way up. National numbers show some significant price declines. Thousands of home mortgages will move out of their initial fixed rate period into a adjustable rate setup over the next 18 months. How is this impacting real estate prices in ski resorts in your area now? What do you think will happen to resort property prices over the next year or two in your area?
post #2 of 13
Aspen real estate is still going bonkers. I don't see it stopping. Maybe appreciation will go down to 1%/month from the current 2%+.
post #3 of 13
The pace of sales are off in most locations, but will probably come back once the credit issues are worked through a bit. Lenders were never too keen on lending for 2nd homes and even more weary right now. Depends on who you are.

I think there's a good 5+ years left of people buying into mountain property as the last of the boomers get to their highest earning years and inherit the huge sums of money turning over through inheritance. Those two things will continue the interest, but after 10 years the next gen is fewer in number, so values might go down because of lower demand.
post #4 of 13
Prices are generally on the upward march, but this year has been slower than the past decade. Sales are slightly off but seem to be picking up again in most areas.

Mountain real estate and second homes don't really follow the normal real estate trends of the rest of the country.
post #5 of 13
I think the prices here have stabilized on LAND, which is all I look at as I'm not in the business and comparing anything else has too many variables. Basically, there were some astromonical increases, and now it's in the single digit %'s this year over last. I notice that some of the ridiculously-priced trophy homes that have been sitting a long time have knocked off 20-30%, though.
post #6 of 13
I'm no expert but we do have a place in a small neighborhood. After a couple of years of fast moving there are currently 7-8 homes for sale in a neighborhood of about 60. One or two of these have been listed for more than a year and were overpriced. They've come off 10-15% on asking price. I think supply has caught up for now. The pattern seems to be two years up, one down, two flat, repeat.
post #7 of 13
Prices here basically doubled in the last two years. For example, a $400K three bedroom home on 1/4 acre went to $800. A $1.5m super nice house of 5000 + square ft. went to 3mill. Building lots in Park City tripled and are north of $800k- old town tripled as well, with minors shacks going for a cool mill and any shack that you can hit with a rock from a ski run double that and much more.
Trouble is, no buyers. I expect eventually some prices will come down, but Utards are slow to lower prices, so I expect some very long times on market. The last market flatline we had lasted from about 1996 to 2003 when things were bid up in advance of the Olympics. Things ran out of steam about 2000 and there were some real bargains around in 01-02- one acre Aerie lots (that hilltop you can see from almost anywhere on the mountain, distinguished by the house with the triangle copper roof) were going for as little as 150K, down from a ballpark average of 200k for much of the late 90's. Now they're up into the 800's.
People ask whatever enters their mind. Trouble is, as I said, no buyers.

Ted Ligity's mom and dad have been realtors in this town for over thirty years. They send out letters gently encouraging people to be realistic, but I guess people feel that they only have to make one "sale of a lifetime" so they go for it.
post #8 of 13
AFIK, there are layers and layers of leverage, rental income assumptions, inflation assumptions and tax assumptions, etc. wound into many second homes -- and especially ski resort homes/condos. It is hard to "predict" anything about markets, but in this case the future is made even more cloudy by direct government meddling for political reasons. Still, I would not be surprised to see a 50% or greater drop in the average value of ski resort real estate over the next couple of years. It is easy to be wrong though...

Of course, places like Aspen are especially interesting since they are not subject to normal market pressures. Instead, they represent a local focal point for an odd global market.
post #9 of 13
There was a 40% drop in real estate prices in the Hamptons in the early 90's, all second homes- it happens. Park City real estate agents keep calling PC the new Aspen, Telluride, Jackson. I don't think that's going to happen- too much ranchland to endlessly develop, too close to the riff raff in Salt Lake, too many preconceptions about Utar. It may be more like the next Orange County or New Jersey with mountains.
post #10 of 13
IMHO, the key factor is space available for development. If there is not a ready supply of land for development nearby, then the area may remain immune to normal market/national pressures/trends (e.g. Aspen, Manhattan).
post #11 of 13
Mr. Crab,
I have many friends involved in Real Estate in PC and most believe the market will keep level for the next year or two, then rise again. It will not experience the crazy growth but will definitely hold steady.

I am not sure about Old Town though because those prices are just flat out crazy. They say there will be some correction from homes that are way overpriced but for the most part we are becoming the next Aspen/Vail. We are still a deal compared to most ski towns and the state is dumping millions into advertising our ski industry.

But what do I know. There really isn't a way to predict what will happen.
post #12 of 13
Real estate is just now starting to respond to fundamental factors in the overall economy. ...It may be a huge mistake to determine trends based on past cycles.

Much of the appreciation people in real estate have touted is more closely tied to the rabid weakening of the dollar. ...Those who fawn over real estate doubling since 911, need to look at the world currency situation and realize half of their 'windfall' is purely ledger increases courtesy of the Federal Reserve printing excess paper and weakening our currency status. Many say we are just now seeing the tip of the iceberg,, and who knows for sure! ...But I will say it is obvious the people pulling the strings are VERY worried about current trends.

Best of Luck to mountain community homeowners, but those blue sky predictions are beginning to sound a little weak!

post #13 of 13
I'm in the mortgage business and have felt the effects first hand. While there has been a dip, it has not been so dramatic in the areas I cover, mainly a stabilization. Whereas in the past few years houses were gaining upto $100k in equity in 1 year without so much as raising a finger to improve them, now houses are at about the same as they were a year ago, with some dipping down upto $50k in value, but I have not really seen more than that (Im talking a house originally valued at $450-750k).

Areas that are and have always been for the rich, seem to be immune. The weak dollar in such areas attracts foreign buyers, we are seeing more and more foreigners buying second and third homes as investments here in the NYC area.

All I can say is I hope the houses take a dip for a short while..I would love to buy a ski home, but at any rate the consensus of the people I work with is that houses will continue to drop in price, but in two years expect them to fly up again. But its anybody's crapshoot.
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