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Killington Season Pass Break Even and math (& This just in, Kton pass prices) - Page 8

post #211 of 360
I wonder what percentage of ASC/Kton pass holders already took atvantage of other mountains "early bird" pass deals while the folks at Powdr were dragging their feet.

HS,
I really admire the effort you are putting in this and taking the torch in this endeavor. Kudos to you.
post #212 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philpug View Post
HS,
I really admire the effort you are putting in this and taking the torch in this endeavor. Kudos to you.
Thanks Phil. This would not be possible without your support, so thanks and kudos to you too.

The year is 2007. These guys have to realize that anything they do is subject to intense public scrutiny....in public. Especially if they are perceived to be operating in a manner which harms the Killington community, loyal customers or the mountain itself. We will not stand for it. We are on their side only if they are on our side first, and we can be a powerful ally or enemy. This will all continue to be on the public record - only a quick Google search away from any prospective customer of Killington or any POWDR Resort, and will continue to be updated as we approach and enter the ski season.
post #213 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philpug View Post
I wonder what percentage of ASC/Kton pass holders already took atvantage of other mountains "early bird" pass deals while the folks at Powdr were dragging their feet.

HS,
I really admire the effort you are putting in this and taking the torch in this endeavor. Kudos to you.
I haven't had time to go through all of HS' analysis here and at KZone, but from what I've seen the assumptions/calculations look pretty reasonable. Although after the "what do we need" part is done, the marketing/management team needs to determine market value as well. Like all product markets if a competitive mix of services/product isn't matched to the customer Killington wants to attract, then customers will find better value elsewhere. I'm specifically thinking at the higher end of the price list. Killington has location over Stowe, but things will have to be spruced up to deliver the same value at $1,100 -$1,500.

I've mapped out 43 New England mountains to see what is happening with pass prices - five small operations don't offer passes, 22 have announced pricing for 07/08 and with few exceptions there's not much below $600 for a pass that offers skiing any day of the week. Again a few options at "smaller" operations - like Wildcat had a $499 pass, but it has increased to $669 now. Peaks continued on with a modified version of an A41, which is something K-ton will likely have to compete with for the frequent weekend crowd. K-ton and Mt. Snow are in the same "zone" as far as travel for the MA and points south crowd. Based on what has been announced and where others are likely to price, HS' estimate of $900-$1,000 is in the ballpark for an unrestricted 7-day pass. Possibly $500-650 for one with blackouts, but that is now a rare type of pass. Discounts are starting to revert to the older model of midweek, 6-day, and 7-day. Want to ski Saturday .. you pay. Many 7-day passes don't have blackouts, but they are up in the $900+ range. Sunapee's options are surprising - high, but their 7-day passes are tied up with multi-mountain arrangements.

15 mountains have yet to announce pricing - K-ton, SR, SL, Smuggs, Jay, Bretton, Ascutney, Camden, Lost Valley, Bromley, Ragged, etc.

So, bottom line I think it has been reasonable for K-ton's owners to study the market and get their hands around how they are going to position themselves. Almost all of the early purchase deadlines are much later this year than in the past.
post #214 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by boston_e View Post
Although not right in Killington, Sugar and Spice, is also very good. (It's about 6 miles down route 4 towards Rutalnd)
...you can't go wrong with a place that makes their own maple syrup in the basement
post #215 of 360
Here's where I'm confused: When did Killington ever have a legitimate claim to being the best skiing in the Northeast?

I grew up in NY, lived there 31 years (i.e., until 8 years ago), skied at least two weeks a year for about half of those years, and went to Killington, I dunno, maybe three weekends. It was always too crowded and too skied out, and the hill never lived up to the hype. It was just the biggest hill reasonably near NYC, so if you only had a weekend, you didn't have much choice. Frankly, had Killington been less lame, we probably would've done more weekend ski trips, rather than store it up for a solid two-week trip each year.

By way of analogy, you guys are talking about this as though a beloved neighborhood restaurant had been sold to a developer with unknown intentions, while from my point of view, it's like a McDonalds franchise changed hands, and no one knows what'll happen to the kids' play structure.

What am I missing?
post #216 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by carvemeister View Post
I'd almost rather be in Tannersville!
Tannersville rocks. I was there last Sat nite and the whole town was gettin down.
post #217 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul Jones View Post
Tannersville rocks.
As soon as my bio-hazard containment suit comes in, I'll see you at Slopes.
post #218 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by Highway Star View Post
Johnny Boy's Pancake House has the best breakfast.
Never heard of it. Sounds good though, I'll try it asap. Thanks.
post #219 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by alpinedad View Post
What am I missing?
Pretty much everything.
post #220 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by Highway Star View Post
Pretty much everything.
Hmm. Maybe it was your whining about how it only really has 2000 feet of vertical anyway that made me question why the hell anyone cares.
post #221 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by PA Ridge Racer View Post
...you can't go wrong with a place that makes their own maple syrup in the basement
I've heard the place is good. Car doesn't want to stop there for some reason.
post #222 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by alpinedad View Post
...you guys are talking about this as though a beloved neighborhood restaurant had been sold to a developer with unknown intentions, while from my point of view, it's like a McDonalds franchise changed hands, and no one knows what'll happen to the kids' play structure.

What am I missing?
Well said, but Killington's been a key player in my area for a long time. The All-East pass was a real good thing for 'us'. With out the All-East pass, next season will be quite different that last. Maybe that will motivate me to get up a little earlier and drive the extra hour to MRG or to spend more time at the lodge and hit Jay and Stowe. I could even go to Smuggs and visit Oboe
post #223 of 360
yeah I never thought Kmart was better than Stowe or Jay or MRG or SB for that matter. But for me it's just on the edge of a daytrip (yeah yeah I know some of you drive 7 hours).

But N Vt is sooo expensive, it's almost in the fly out to Utah on a free ticket range for me vs drive, stay and ski. I gotta start thinking about a seasonal rental to split with someone up there because the skiing is so much better.
post #224 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by alpinedad View Post
Here's where I'm confused: When did Killington ever have a legitimate claim to being the best skiing in the Northeast?

I grew up in NY, lived there 31 years (i.e., until 8 years ago), skied at least two weeks a year for about half of those years, and went to Killington, I dunno, maybe three weekends. It was always too crowded and too skied out, and the hill never lived up to the hype. It was just the biggest hill reasonably near NYC, so if you only had a weekend, you didn't have much choice. Frankly, had Killington been less lame, we probably would've done more weekend ski trips, rather than store it up for a solid two-week trip each year.

By way of analogy, you guys are talking about this as though a beloved neighborhood restaurant had been sold to a developer with unknown intentions, while from my point of view, it's like a McDonalds franchise changed hands, and no one knows what'll happen to the kids' play structure.

What am I missing?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ct55 View Post
yeah I never thought Kmart was better than Stowe or Jay or MRG or SB for that matter. But for me it's just on the edge of a daytrip (yeah yeah I know some of you drive 7 hours).

But N Vt is sooo expensive, it's almost in the fly out to Utah on a free ticket range for me vs drive, stay and ski. I gotta start thinking about a seasonal rental to split with someone up there because the skiing is so much better.
That's the point you're missing, alpinedad. Killington is right on the edge of divide before it gets too expensive and too time consuming than flying out west!

As for the claim of "best of the eastern resort", it's really the "best of southern VT". There's no other resort in southern VT that has the variety as K. As for skiied out and crowd, it applies to the intermediate runs right. MUCH less so if you're talking about Bear, OutterLimit, which doesn't exist in other southern VT resorts!

I didn't get the point of K until I learn to enjoy the more advance stuff.

Since you now live in CA, the analogy is more like In & Out being sold to McDonald instead of Burger King merging with McDonald!
post #225 of 360
PASS PRICES:

MONDAY, JUNE 18th 2007

(if anybody still cares!)
post #226 of 360
Great, now I won't be able to sleep Sunday night.
post #227 of 360
Another false start?
post #228 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by at_nyc View Post
Since you now live in CA, the analogy is more like In & Out being sold to McDonald instead of Burger King merging with McDonald!
In 'n' Out is also overrated, so maybe you have a point. But my analogy was intended to be a McDonald's franchise being sold to another owner who was going to keep it as a McDonald's franchise.

And your point is well taken about the crossover point between driving and flying (although I suspect that you don't have kids -- that break-even point is a lot higher when you have to buy 4 or 5 plane tickets instead of 1 or 2).

But I've had more fun on the Dartmouth hill -- let alone Smuggs, MRG, and even Saddleback -- than at Killington.
post #229 of 360
I haven't posted to Epicski in years but I thought it might be worth adding my $0.02 here:

As you can see from ASC finances, the discount pass program was an abject failure. Now that ASC has collapsed, you'll notice that prices have gone up at other resorts. I expect they'll continue to rise since you can't possibly make a profit at that price point at an eastern resort where you have the energy and labor costs of making snow.

The big picture at Killington: This is a real estate deal. The Eiger Fund/E2M people from Texas are only interested in things that maximize their profit on all the developable land they now hold at the bottom of the mountain. POWDR was brought in to operate the resort. It's not their deal. It's an Eiger deal. The ASC malaise chased away many of the likely buyers for Eiger's luxury condos and trailside trophy homes. That's why Eiger pulled in Centex a few years ago to be the developer and expected to sell their interest to Centex. Centex pulled out of the deal last fall when they decided they couldn't make money. I'm sure the marching orders to POWDR are to fix the product so people will be willing to spend big dollars to buy vacation homes. Eiger may actually stick around long enough to develop the real estate. They may flip it to some other monster developer. Only time wil tell.

Nobody has any idea what they'll actually do to try to return Killington to its former glory. I've been there for 25 years. What attracted me to the place in my early 20's was:
* first to open, last to close, big snowmaking reputation (good odds in a lean snow year)
* The vibrant share house scene (when you're in your 20's, it's all about getting drunk and laid)
* The accident of geography. It's the first big ski area from metro-Boston with good roads.
We took a very hard look at Sugarloaf last winter but it had the ASC malaise even worse than Killington. We'll continue to watch. If Killington offers a Thanksgiving to late-April product and doesn't make snow reliably, I'll likely sell my place and change mountains. I like skiing in late-October. I live to spring ski in April and May and I don't mean 1 trail with VW-sized moguls on it.

Personally, I think the only formula that works is the original Preston Smith formula. First to open. Last to close. Blow snow like crazy. Market the resort as the biggest, most reliable place to go in the east. With the New York and Boston weekend crowd, you really can't turn it into a Deer Valley for the Bogner set and the layout isn't family-friendly so you can't turn it into an Okemo.
post #230 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
I haven't posted to Epicski in years but I thought it might be worth adding my $0.02 here:
It's worth a lot more than 2 cents, great analysis, post more.
post #231 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by GeoffD View Post
Personally, I think the only formula that works is the original Preston Smith formula. First to open. Last to close. Blow snow like crazy. Market the resort as the biggest, most reliable place to go in the east. With the New York and Boston weekend crowd, you really can't turn it into a Deer Valley for the Bogner set and the layout isn't family-friendly so you can't turn it into an Okemo.
Soooo, go back to what got them there..the basics. Great post, please don't be a stranger.
post #232 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2-turn View Post
It's worth a lot more than 2 cents, great analysis, post more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philpug View Post
Soooo, go back to what got them there..the basics. Great post, please don't be a stranger.
What they said ^^^^
Very well put!
post #233 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philpug View Post
Soooo, go back to what got them there..the basics. Great post, please don't be a stranger.
If you want more of Geoff's insights, head on over to K-zone......:

http://www.killingtonzone.com/forums...asc&sta rt=15

Geoff's got some good points, sometimes.....but sometimes not.

Eveybody and their mother knows the new owners are in it for the real estate...duh. Problem is, nobody (including the new owners) seems to have a viable plan to make Killington a viable top-end real estate anchor again....if it ever was........OOOOPS!!!! Painting the lifts, patching the snowmaking pipes and putting in a new bathroom isn't going to cut it against the likes of Stratton or Stowe....they are already massively behind. It's going to take serious money spent ON the mountain....first, at least $30 Million to get them back up to near the status quo...then god knows how much more, to get to where they can actually dominate again...another $20M+? Plus a pretty hefty increase in their yearly operating budget. Now, granted, Killington doesn't have to dominate the market again to be able to sell real estate, but really, how else are they going to compete for the customer who is looking for nothing but the best?

IMHO, the only way Killington can be that is by being the biggest 4 season resort in the east.....the Whistler of the East. Real Skiing for 8 months, Biking for 6 months, and Golf for 6 months. Heck, even snow-flex summer skiing. Having the most, the most often.....while keeping it real. Too bad that takes money and vison......the new owners have the money but don't want to spend it.....and they certainly don't have the vision.
post #234 of 360
07/08 KILLINGTON SEASON PASSES

http://www.killington.com/summer/winter_passes.html

PASS TYPE DESCRIPTION SUMMER PRICE
06/18/07- 08/01/07

KILLINGTON & PICO
UNLIMITED PASS No Blackouts, Summer Payment Plan* ADULT - $999
YOUNG ADULT & SENIOR- $799
JUNIOR & SUPER SENIOR- $699
CHILD - $29

KILLINGTON & PICO
BLACKOUT PASS All Ages
18 blackout days: 11/23-11/24/07, 12/26/07-1/1/08, 1/19/08-1/20/08, 2/16/08-2/22/08, Summer Payment Plan* $599
KILLINGTON & PICO

MIDWEEK PASS All Ages
Monday through Friday excluding: 11/23/07, 12/26/07-12/28/07, 12/31/07-1/4/08, 2/18/08-2/22/08 $299

PICO PASS Passes will be age dependent. Passes will be annouced in August

COLLEGE PASS n/a Passes will be annouced in August
post #235 of 360

This Just in (Killington Pass Price)

Killington Passes:

First Blackouts

ALL AGES
18 blackout days: 11/23-11/24/07, 12/26/07-1/1/08, 1/19/08-1/20/08, 2/16/08-2/22/08, Summer Payment Plan*

$599
post #236 of 360
Not at all suprising..........
post #237 of 360
Damn, same price for the midweek pass as I paid for SOS.
*if* they had released pass prices sooner...
post #238 of 360
Seems like all the sound and fury was for nothing.

passes are still cheap.

Killington is still the closest good skiing for most north easterners.
post #239 of 360
Highway Star, this skiing thing is becoming an obsession for you. Wouldn't you know you'd be the first one to post on this.

So, break even for me is 12 visits, $50 per visit, then free. I wish I had kept better track of my days last season. It's a close call with the weak early season last year. If global warming comes back again: then it's marginal. Shouldn't even be thinking about that.

If I don't buy, what will my season be like - ski Jiminy all the time or get out to other mountains and further north?

And finally, how do the black out days compare?
post #240 of 360
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiteroom View Post
Seems like all the sound and fury was for nothing.

passes are still cheap.

Killington is still the closest good skiing for most north easterners.
Actually....NO!!!

That's a 50% to 100% price increase!!!

This is an early season rate good until AUGUST 1st.

So, we pay more.......WHAT DO WE GET?!?!?!
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