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Help with a quandary...

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
So it's usually not enough time, or not enough money.

This time, it's not enough snow.

I'd saved the money to go to Chile this Summer with my wife. We were supposed to go just before she had to go back to work (teacher). Trouble is, aside from one little 3 or 4 inch event, they've had no new snow for 8 weeks. Total accumulation is about equal to an average to sub par VT season at 196".

So we didn't go, and I'm pretty devastated. She didn't mind so much, cuz she was nervous about the trip in the first place. I'm thinking of going on my own Sep.6 for a week, but I'm so tossed up over conditions.

So the question, what would you do?

Save the dough & regroup for our winter season?

Or hoof it 4,000 miles to make some turns in average VT conditions?

Clock's ticking!
post #2 of 16
Check out Ricks photo's from Chile Aug 25 03. www.basinski.com He owns Basin Ski Shop at Killington
post #3 of 16
Thread Starter 

I'm a little shocked, I don't know what to make of that.

According to both Portillo and Valle Nevado, there has been about 4" of new snow in the last 8 or 9 weeks, and 50-60 degree temps every day. I don't know how the snow could possibly hold up that well.
post #4 of 16
I also am a little shocked by these photos.

I just returned from Portillo on Sunday and I have to say where ever you found that snow you were pretty lucky. Not to say I did not have a blast skiing and found some good spring snow but that looks like some pretty decent winter snow.

Portillo had a good base and there were very few rocks about. But it was truly spring skiing. Rock hard in the morning or sugar snow on hard packed, then once it warmed up there was the usual time frame of 11-1 skiing where it was great spring snow and then it generally turned cloudy and cold in the afternoon and began to harden up again.

Had a great time but it definitely did not look like those photos at Portillo.

post #5 of 16
Thread Starter 
Thanks for the report LU, I gotta wonder if this guy has his dates mixed up.

Any other thoughts or opinions anyone?
post #6 of 16
I'd have to go with "Save the dough and regroup".
Winter's not TOO far away now.

I'm wondering where to go in December myself. I could go to Tahoe and stay for free, but I hear the xmas crowds are bad. Maybe I should just wait until January...

post #7 of 16
Hey X,

If you can put any faith in the prognostication of the fellow in the piece below, you might want to book something early season in the Canadian rockies. ..That 'high confidence' prediction sure seems to fit with what people are saying happened in the recent past. The first part of December isn't that far away, but it can be a little challenging; heading up north and being on the slopes from 'daybreak to dusk' during their short days of early winter. ...Good Luck!!!


Hot News: Roemer?s Early Season Ski Forecast

Burlington, Vermont (Ski Press)-Jim Roemer of WeatherRisk Institute advises a major commodity fund and owns "www.bestskiweather.com ". He just issued a special update on global warming, what the fall foliage might be like in New England, and a new early winter ski forecast.

In the first issue of last season?s newsletter, published in early November, 2002, he forecasted the early start to the ski season. Mr. Roemer is looking forward to helping ski resorts and Chambers of Commerce nationwide this year.

NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND?(moderate confidence)?Warmer than normal early winter with normal to below normal snowfall and some rain events possible.

The ski season will not get off to the start it had last year with warmer than normal weather likely in November and December. Precipitation may be normal to slightly above normal across northern most New England with the heaviest across Maine where several major snowstorms might occur. Across Vermont, New Hampshire and Upstate New York, snowfall will be about average but there may also be several days in December of balmy weather with some rain or freezing rain. Of course, this could all change, and we will have an update in early November. But snowfall through Christmas will be average at best though Sunday River and Sugarloaf in Maine could see some above normal snows. However, given the likelihood of above normal temperatures, some of the precipitation will be wasted in the form of rain.

COLORADO/CENTRAL ROCKIES?(low confidence)?The 1959 and 1938 analogs suggest some different weather results here.

The ski season ended in fantastic fashion last March and April with above normal snowfall easing drought conditions in Colorado and bringing the best skiing of the season. Jackson Hole and Grand Targhee had one of their finest ski seasons ever. This season should start out pretty normal with near normal temperatures and November-December

snowfall 90-120% of normal from Vail, Aspen, Steamboat Springs with slightly lower amounts at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. There seems to be a slightly greater tendency for normal to above normal snowfalls from Taos, New Mexico to Crested Butte and Telluride during both analog years. The 1959 analog suggests snowfall averaging slightly below normal in most other areas and the 1938 analog well above normal. Hence, we averaged the two years for now.

UTAH/IDAHO?(moderate confidence)? More normal early winter snowfall in Utah

Snowfall appears to be about normal here as well with a tendency for slightly below normal temperatures.

While Utah had a pretty dismal early-mid season last year, chances are 60% that a more normalized pattern will develop this year helping to ease the severe drought conditions. Brighton, Alta and Snowbird should see somewhat better conditions than a year ago, though the 1959 analog suggests otherwise.

CALIFORNIA/TAHOE REGION ?(low confidence)? Mixed conditions with some tendency for drier than normal conditions.

Both analog years suggest a below normal snowfall trend through Christmas with a slight tendency for above normal temperatures. Interestingly, precipitation may favor southern California and the southwest as it did last April. Mammoth Mountain may start off where they left off last April with ideal early season conditions. If you want something to compare, go back and look at all years when April snowfall was above normal at Mammoth and see what happened the following November and December. If you isolate out the El Nino and La Nina cases this may be as good of a comparison as any to forecast the early season out west.

N.SIERRA/CASCADE/MONTANA REGION?(moderate confidence)? Mixed conditions with drought continuing in southern regions.

While a severe drought has basked the Pacific Northwest this summer, analog years suggest a continuation of below normal precipitation through December. The exception might be Mt. Baker and extreme northwest Washington as well as Montana where snowfall could be above normal early this winter.

Ski resorts such as Big Sky Resort and Bridger Bowl could see above normal early winter snows. Normal to slightly below normal snowfall may fall at Crystal Mountain with 60-85% of normal November-December snows at Mt. Bachelor and Mt. Hood in Oregon.

CANADIAN ROCKIES/B.C. ?(high confidence) ? The place to be over Christmas? Could be!

Early season conditions may be some of the best in North America with above normal snows at such places as Whistler, Fernie, Sun Peaks and possibly Banff and Lake Louise. Drought conditions which have again affected the region should be replaced by colder than normal November-December temperatures with more consistent snow making for some ideal conditions. (© 2003 Ski Press Media, Inc).

Peter Kray

[ August 30, 2003, 03:35 AM: Message edited by: feal ]
post #8 of 16
Ya made the right call not to go. A mate came back two weeks ago and he was pretty disappointed with the snow. Had a good trip though.

If ya really keen Oz conditions are pretty darn good at the moment. Snowing heavy this weekend n last week n looks like next week. You will get lots of turns in and no crowds at Oz peso rates. We also speak a sort of English dialect. Weather in Sydney is beautiful this time of year for some off snow fun on the way through. Beach was pretty warm today as well. Best time of year downunder is Spring.

Oz [img]smile.gif[/img]
post #9 of 16
What he said ^

Spring is great
Ski & fish & surf & ..... hmmmm I think Oz watches the girls on the beach... not me

Bed available here if needed - 2 hours or so to snow
post #10 of 16
Thread Starter 
OK, so now I'm really disgusted. Valle Nevado forecasts 15-30 cm for the next 24 hrs. Portillo will probably have that or more. I would've arrived tomorrow had I gone ahead.

Indecision, it's a killah!
post #11 of 16
Yup, life's a bitch and then you hit a rock.
Head for Alaska or Norway in future.
I've heard a rumour that there’s an attempt by a conglomerate of ski resort developers to open a ‘premier’ resort on Antarctica!
post #12 of 16
Yup, life's a bitch and then you hit a rock.
Head for Alaska or Norway in future.
I've heard a rumour that there’s an attempt by a conglomerate of ski resort developers to open a ‘premier’ resort on Antarctica!
post #13 of 16
What about heading to Castleford?

post #14 of 16
Friday Oct3 with ‘Spawn o’Loins’ in Manchester, 4 Oct.AM/PM Castleford Xscape - Piss-up Sat night in Leeds - Hotel optional - do you feel luck, punk?
Now? Going skip jumping in an IT park - bankrupt IT company! Let’s see what’s being trashed!

[ September 06, 2003, 04:08 AM: Message edited by: Masque ]
post #15 of 16
Hey Xdog. I'm curious. Who did you book with and what kind of cancellation penalties did you incur? Most of these travel agencies want a lot of advanced notice to book South American trips, but as we all know too well, last minute is the way of the skier. It allows you to go where the snow is or in some cases, not go... : : : The decision not to go is probably the toughest one we all occasionally have to make....

[ September 06, 2003, 05:26 AM: Message edited by: West Virginia Skier ]
post #16 of 16
Thread Starter 

I learned from previous trips not to book with an agency, but rather with the Hotel Portillo itself. Rates are the same for most, and better for me. My Mother works for Delta, so I fly standby, and get 15% off Portillo's rates.

I don't book with Portillo til' the last possible minute, because you don't have to, they never fill up.

Gotta keep Mom healthy, or my jet setting dayz are over!
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