If you can put any faith in the prognostication of the fellow in the piece below, you might want to book something early season in the Canadian rockies. ..That 'high confidence' prediction sure seems to fit with what people are saying happened in the recent past. The first part of December isn't that far away, but it can be a little challenging; heading up north and being on the slopes from 'daybreak to dusk' during their short days of early winter. ...Good Luck!!!
Hot News: Roemer?s Early Season Ski Forecast
Burlington, Vermont (Ski Press)-Jim Roemer of WeatherRisk Institute advises a major commodity fund and owns "www.bestskiweather.com
". He just issued a special update on global warming, what the fall foliage might be like in New England, and a new early winter ski forecast.
In the first issue of last season?s newsletter, published in early November, 2002, he forecasted the early start to the ski season. Mr. Roemer is looking forward to helping ski resorts and Chambers of Commerce nationwide this year.
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND?(moderate confidence)?Warmer than normal early winter with normal to below normal snowfall and some rain events possible.
The ski season will not get off to the start it had last year with warmer than normal weather likely in November and December. Precipitation may be normal to slightly above normal across northern most New England with the heaviest across Maine where several major snowstorms might occur. Across Vermont, New Hampshire and Upstate New York, snowfall will be about average but there may also be several days in December of balmy weather with some rain or freezing rain. Of course, this could all change, and we will have an update in early November. But snowfall through Christmas will be average at best though Sunday River and Sugarloaf in Maine could see some above normal snows. However, given the likelihood of above normal temperatures, some of the precipitation will be wasted in the form of rain.
COLORADO/CENTRAL ROCKIES?(low confidence)?The 1959 and 1938 analogs suggest some different weather results here.
The ski season ended in fantastic fashion last March and April with above normal snowfall easing drought conditions in Colorado and bringing the best skiing of the season. Jackson Hole and Grand Targhee had one of their finest ski seasons ever. This season should start out pretty normal with near normal temperatures and November-December
snowfall 90-120% of normal from Vail, Aspen, Steamboat Springs with slightly lower amounts at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. There seems to be a slightly greater tendency for normal to above normal snowfalls from Taos, New Mexico to Crested Butte and Telluride during both analog years. The 1959 analog suggests snowfall averaging slightly below normal in most other areas and the 1938 analog well above normal. Hence, we averaged the two years for now.
UTAH/IDAHO?(moderate confidence)? More normal early winter snowfall in Utah
Snowfall appears to be about normal here as well with a tendency for slightly below normal temperatures.
While Utah had a pretty dismal early-mid season last year, chances are 60% that a more normalized pattern will develop this year helping to ease the severe drought conditions. Brighton, Alta and Snowbird should see somewhat better conditions than a year ago, though the 1959 analog suggests otherwise.
CALIFORNIA/TAHOE REGION ?(low confidence)? Mixed conditions with some tendency for drier than normal conditions.
Both analog years suggest a below normal snowfall trend through Christmas with a slight tendency for above normal temperatures. Interestingly, precipitation may favor southern California and the southwest as it did last April. Mammoth Mountain may start off where they left off last April with ideal early season conditions. If you want something to compare, go back and look at all years when April snowfall was above normal at Mammoth and see what happened the following November and December. If you isolate out the El Nino and La Nina cases this may be as good of a comparison as any to forecast the early season out west.
N.SIERRA/CASCADE/MONTANA REGION?(moderate confidence)? Mixed conditions with drought continuing in southern regions.
While a severe drought has basked the Pacific Northwest this summer, analog years suggest a continuation of below normal precipitation through December. The exception might be Mt. Baker and extreme northwest Washington as well as Montana where snowfall could be above normal early this winter.
Ski resorts such as Big Sky Resort and Bridger Bowl could see above normal early winter snows. Normal to slightly below normal snowfall may fall at Crystal Mountain with 60-85% of normal November-December snows at Mt. Bachelor and Mt. Hood in Oregon.
CANADIAN ROCKIES/B.C. ?(high confidence) ? The place to be over Christmas? Could be!
Early season conditions may be some of the best in North America with above normal snows at such places as Whistler, Fernie, Sun Peaks and possibly Banff and Lake Louise. Drought conditions which have again affected the region should be replaced by colder than normal November-December temperatures with more consistent snow making for some ideal conditions. (© 2003 Ski Press Media, Inc).
Peter Kray[ August 30, 2003, 03:35 AM: Message edited by: feal ]