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Women's World Cup Race (Some SPOILERS Could Creep in)

post #1 of 5
Thread Starter 
This shouldn't be news to anyone (but maybe is, anyway), but we do have an American poised with a pretty darn good chance of winning a crystal globe (the really big one, not those discipline ones). Which, of course, is something a whopping total of three Americans have managed in four decades of trying.

And it's not Bode Miller (or even Lindsey Kildow).

Julia Mancuso (perhaps more well-known to some as the Lange Girl, or the "unprofessional" tiara-wearer) is currently tied for the lead for the women's overall world cup, with three Austrians as her only competition.

There are six races left: 2 x SL, 2 x GS, SG and DH: one each of SL and GS this weekend in Germany, then all four events at the WC finals next week at Lenzerheide, Switzerland.

Quick and dirty handicapping:

Mancuso leads and has terrific momentum (three consecutive podums and scarcely a bad race since 2006). On the downside, SL is her weakest event and there are two of them.

Renate Goetschl is tied for the lead, but she's really a speed specialist, and so only has good scoring possibilities in two of the six remaining races. She doesn't race slalom at all, and finishes in the teens in GS.

Nikki Hosp has the best shot, along with Mancuso. She's only 16 points back and she's a real four-event skier, and quite strong in the technical events.

Marlies Schild is 29 points back. She's a deadly slalom skier (has already clinched that little globe), and can score points in the other three events, though not a lot of them.

Nobody else is in the running: Kildow is 391 points back and hurt; Paersson is 570 points back. While it's theoretically possible to gain 600 points in six races (and Paersson is practically capable of almost anything), the likelihood of her passing all four of the leaders is about as close to nil as these things get.
post #2 of 5
Didn't Renate bang her knee recently, saying something that sounded alot like Lindsey right after she got hurt?

I also think that it'll come down to Nikki and Julia. (Of course, you know whom I'm rooting for!!) But, if Nikki doesn't kick it in the SL, then things will be looking really good.

This is really exciting. Wow.

PS - Julia turns 23 today. (I think it's today.. maybe yesterday..I guess I could look it up... Naah.)
post #3 of 5
It was her B-Day .. : .. so I looked it up. Pretty good memory though Bob! Wow, I can't even remember my own.

Hosp slides into the lead .... as predicted ...
post #4 of 5
Thread Starter 
The update, with just SG/GS/SL to go:

Schild terrifically improved her position with technical results (no surprise) and her best-ever DH finish.

Hosp is still in the mix.

Mancuso's still got a chance, but it's getting thinner. She's only 31 points behind Hosp, but lacks her slalom chops.

Goetschl, despite doing as well as you could expect (and being a little ahead of Mancuso at this point) is the least likely winner.

If we assume Schild will win the last slalom (not unreasonable, if she doesn't hook a tip or something), she's in very strong position. Add in the fact she's pretty good at GS, and that her DH placing bodes well for the SG on the same hill, and it starts to look pretty solid. If Raich can win, it's a "lovebird" overall, though that seems like a highly "un-Austrian" concept.

A few notes:

- Say Schild wins the Slalom, and Mancuso scores no points (finishes lower than 15th) in the Slalom. Mancuso would have to win both the SG and the GS to pass Schild ... any scoring result (15th or better) in either the GS or SG would put Schild ahead of Mancuso.

- Just as a rough guess, say Schild is 5th in SG and GS and 1st in SL. Mancuso would need two wins and second place to pass her by 4 points.
post #5 of 5
Thread Starter 
Just GS and SL left now, and Schild again solidified her position.

Just to create a hypothetical: If Mancuso wins both the GS and SL, and Hosp is 2nd in both, and Schild is 5th in both, there would be a three-way tie for the overall title.

If we assume Schild will win the slalom (not quite a safe assumption, but an attractive bet), she's out of reach of Mancuso, and almost out of reach of Hosp (Schild would just have to finish no worse than 15th in the GS).
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