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Farmer's Almanac predicts.....BIG SNOW!

post #1 of 21
Thread Starter 
For what it's worth, the new FARMER'S ALMANAC has just come out, and it's predicting a heavy snow winter with colder temperatures "from Maine to Colorado."

While the editors claim a 75-80% accuracy over the history of the Almanac, they were, of course, dead wrong last winter. Still, it's the first encouraging sign I've seen in a while that the end of this drought may be in sight!

Keep your fingers crossed....

Best regards,
Bob Barnes
post #2 of 21
Bob that BIG storm that hits the Rockies in late Oct. gets stalled out over the Cascade range in Oregon dumping large amounts of snowfall before moving on to Co.
post #3 of 21
so, if the editors are 75 to 80% right and were wrong last year. then that means that they have a basis of 75 to 80% right this year plus the percentage from last year were they are usually right about 2/3rds of the time and were wrong that is added to this year to keep their average around 75%.
this gives you an 82 to 90% chance that there will be a good winter season. and yes, that's some optimistic math.
post #4 of 21
Bob,

Thanks for the encouraging post. This summer has been the longest summer since I have been here. Not actually longer just that I have worked so much of it dreaming about this year being better then last its been a long one. Whew ... ready to see some snow...
post #5 of 21
Please oh Please be right! Man it was hot yesterday in Summit.
post #6 of 21
Man, I heard that up in the Northern US Rockies that we were going to have a nasty year. =\
I'm really anxious. Hahahahaha, a funny phenomenom is that I only visit this board from about August to November, or when I start skiing. I just use it as a substitute or something...

colin
post #7 of 21
Well it was pretty cold in the Rockies last winter, but it didn't snow! I hope they mention something about precipitation, too. Although given their dodgey success record, maybe it'd be better if they said it was going to be tropical.

Our snow has stalled here. Usually August is Dump Month, but it seems that after an epic july, we are having Spring early. 16 days today on the trot of blazing warm sunshine. The skiing's still great, and something is coming, maybe Rxxx, maybe snow, fingers crossed.
post #8 of 21
What does it mean to be 75% accurate?

Is it location specific? i.e. If they predict 200 in of snow and you get 205 are they right or wrong? Or, are they 97.5% right?

Or is it overall? i.e. at 75% of the locations they are close enough?

But, then, given that they predict weather for actual days, if they say it'll snow 12in on December 5 and we get 12in on December 9, are they right or wrong?

Man, this weather stuff is tough!
post #9 of 21
Yes, is 75% the average, or the combined probability?
1. 75% accuracy by location
2. 75% accuracy by date
3. 75% accuracy by type of precipitation
4. 75% accuracy by amount

If we combine these four, the accuracy is now 31.6%!

We need to know how they define accuracy, and their understanding of probability mathematics!

S
post #10 of 21
WTFH,
No you don't. You just have to believe. [img]smile.gif[/img]
-LB
post #11 of 21
The local Denver news indicated tonight (Thursday, August 29) that Telluride actually got a bit of snow at the upper levels of the ski area today.

Teaser snow up high, the aspens are turning, heavy frost-things are starting to look up!!!
post #12 of 21
Quote:
Originally posted by slider:
Bob that BIG storm that hits the Rockies in late Oct. gets stalled out over the Cascade range in Oregon dumping large amounts of snowfall before moving on to Co.
no man, its elnino. THe jet stream is going to drop, and all that snow is going to socal.
post #13 of 21
We need to know how they define accuracy.Fox the Hat hs a point !

So this is how I think they ahve done for maore than 100 years:

If they say it is going to snow and it does, then they are right.

If they say it is going to snow in your region of the country, and it does, then they are right.

Heavy snow could mean lots, or its is heavy to shovel.

So if it snows, and it weighs a lot then they are right if they predicted heavy snow!

As to mathematically analysis, well they were right in December of 2001, so for 2001 they probably hit their average. Jan.,Feb.,& Mar. 2002, that's going to skew the average for all of 2002 no matter how accurate they are for Nov. and Dec. 2002.

For 2001-2002 winter the prediction was not good. For 2002-2003, better. Why? El Nino is back !!!
post #14 of 21
Thread Starter 
I've always wondered about those percentages too. When they say "50% chance of snow," doesn't that mean that it's just as likely that it will snow as that it won't? In other words, they don't have the slightest clue!

The most accurate forecasts I've ever heard are the typical small-town Maine radio station forecasts: "Snow today. Don't know how much--hasn't stopped yet...."



Best regards,
Bob Barnes
post #15 of 21
Come on people. You just have to have some faith in the ol' Almanac. Scientific inquiry and negative vibrations are known to chase snow-laden clouds away and displease Ull (Ullr or Uller, take your pick).
post #16 of 21
Quote:
Originally posted by rjturner34:
no man, its elnino. THe jet stream is going to drop, and all that snow is going to socal.
Okay, then Mammoth will rock. (and socal needs the water anyway).
post #17 of 21
Quote:
Originally posted by Lostboy:
Come on people. You just have to have some faith in the ol' Almanac. Scientific inquiry and negative vibrations are known to chase snow-laden clouds away and displease Ull (Ullr or Uller, take your pick).
Well, I code on the largest computer in the world. So here is the accurate prediction:
The jet stream approaches the coast, has a ridge up to Whistler where there are big dumps. Then it heads south with big dumps on Tahoe, further south to Mammoth with big dumps. A strong wave sends it to SLC with (yeah, you guessed it, big dumps). The storms are large, so Targhee, Jackson and Big Sky get large amounts of snow. There is a wave to the south where Telluride and Durango experience severe weather. This naturally applies to Taos. A ridge causes storms to blanket the rockies. Then there is the ususal dip to the south. It goes up the East Coast where the storms cause historic deep snow in New England. And hey, what the heck, the Alps get hammered too.
Well, that's about it
post #18 of 21
"Weird Science" is acceptable. [img]smile.gif[/img]
post #19 of 21
We should have snow no matter what since Denver has approved a million dollars for cloud seeding this winter, coupled with Vails cloud seeding program that should do something right?
post #20 of 21
Has anyone heard anything about a storm brewing in the pacific which may have an effect on north american snow this year? A friend of mine in BC is being very cagey about the prospects of the season - despite the optimism of the Almanac - due to this "el nino".

Anyone care to quell my fears?

JB
post #21 of 21
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