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Historic snow predicted for Vermont

post #1 of 27
Thread Starter 
Severe Weather Alert
Heavy Snow Warning

/O.CON.KALY.HS.W.0001.070213T2300Z- 070215T1100Z/ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE- NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER- SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY- NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN- NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY- EASTERN SCHENECTADY- SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY- EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER- EASTERN RENSSELAER- WESTERN GREENE- EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA- EASTERN COLUMBIA- WESTERN ULSTER- EASTERN ULSTER-NORTHERN FULTON- SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON- BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF... PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...ATWELL... BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER... NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD... OLD FORGE... SPECULATOR...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT... DOLGEVILLE...GLOVERSVILLE... JOHNSTOWN... AMSTERDAM...WELLSVILLE... SARATOGA SPRINGS...WARRENSBURG... WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...COBLESKILL... MIDDLEBURGH...DELANSON... ESPERANCE... DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM... BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE... WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY... TROY... HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER... TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...CATSKILL... COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS...HUDSON... CHATHAM... SUNDOWN...ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK... WEST HURLEY... KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH... PHOENICIA...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ... NORTHVILLE...MAYFIELD...GLENS FALLS... WEST GLENS FALLS... HUDSON FALLS... FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH... BENNINGTON... JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE... BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO... BELLOWS FALLS 452 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST...AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH ANOTHER STORM... LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TRACKING NORTHEAST...OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS NEW AND POWERFUL STORM WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND PRODUCE PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. ONCE THE STORM REACHES THE COAST OF MAINE...IT WILL DRIVE ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY ON STRONG GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY. THIS WIND WILL PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF SNOW.
...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY...
...HISTORIC SNOWSTORM ON THE WAY FOR VALENTINES DAY...
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BY THE MORNING DRIVE ON WEDNESDAY... REACHING ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH AROUND 6 INCHES ACCUMULATED ON THE GROUND. THEN...THE SNOWFALL RATE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH PER HOUR MIDDAY AND A LITTLE SLEET MIGHT MIX IN AT TIMES. AT THE SAME TIME...A NORTHEAST WIND WILL INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE TUNE OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO BLOW AND DRIFT THE SNOW AROUND.
THE LULL WILL NOT LAST LONG. HEAVY SNOW WILL RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MESO-SCALE BLINDING SNOW BANDS COULD PRODUCE INCREDIBLE LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 6 INCHES PER HOUR ALONG WITH THUNDER SNOW. MOST ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPASSABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE IN THE HUDSON VALLEY CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THERE AS WELL.
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OUR HEAVY SNOW WARNING TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY POWER OUTAGES SO HAVE A WORKING FLASHLIGHT HANDY. AS THE SNOW WINDS DOWN WEDNESDAY EVENING...PROJECTED TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 30 INCHES... WITH SOME LOCALITIES...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST SLOPES OF GREEN COUNTY... POSSIBLY REACHING AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF THREE FEET! THE WIND WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO BLOW AND DRIFT THE SNOW WELL INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO NEAR ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COLD COUPLED WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...COULD DRIVE WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO DANGEROUS LEVELS
post #2 of 27
I hate trying to read those all capital letters NWS posts.

Here's a better weather report from jay Peak's website.
Notice the portion highlited in red:

The pattern change we talked about 4 weeks ago coming to New England has been right on track and now we have the biggest nor'easter of the last 3 years headed right towards Jay. While we mentioned 1-2 feet could fall at Jay as early as Sunday, we upped our snow totals to 75% confidence of 35-45" yesterday and are keeping it today. There is a chance we could have a total of 50" by Friday.
post #3 of 27
ARE YOU F&%$IN' KIDDING ME!?!?

: : 50" : : ?!?

Don't worry about me. I'll be in Utah.
post #4 of 27
Good to see that the east coast is getting some love from old man winter at last. Go get em! =]
post #5 of 27
Thread Starter 
The Northeast facing slopes will get the most. That means that Jay will get more than many areas.

Michael
post #6 of 27
Any thoughts on more southern eastern mountains like Hunter, Lake Placid, or southern Vermont? I'm in NYC and rarely ski the east, but sounds like this storm might be worth the drive. I wonder if things will be drivable?
post #7 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by smileguy1 View Post
Any thoughts on more southern eastern mountains like Hunter, Lake Placid, or southern Vermont? I'm in NYC and rarely ski the east, but sounds like this storm might be worth the drive. I wonder if things will be drivable?
Skiing should be great everywhere. Catskills included. Better log off now though and hit the road fast.

Purple is good.
Look, see if you can find anywhere purple here:

post #8 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by carvemeister View Post
Skiing should be great everywhere. Catskills included. Better log off now though and hit the road fast.

Purple is good.
Look, see if you can find anywhere purple here:

Wow, look at Taos, one little dark purple dot in the middle of everything else.
post #9 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by viking kaj View Post
Wow, look at Taos, one little dark purple dot in the middle of everything else.
Hence my prophetic answer to barrettscv 2 days ago:
post #10 of 27
And I'm NOT GOING THIS WEEKEND F'ING BLACKOUT DATES AND PARENTS %^*(%&*()%&(%*&%!!!!!!!

Excuse me...
post #11 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by carvemeister View Post
Hence my prophetic answer to barrettscv 2 days ago:
Wow, good call. So what else is in your crystal ball?
post #12 of 27
Cascades look good tomorrow! I'll be in it!
post #13 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by viking kaj View Post
Wow, good call. So what else is in your crystal ball?
Almost anywhere else where I'm not going to be.
post #14 of 27
I feel like a 6 year old on Christmas Eve. I've been up since 4 and am going to go plow the driveway now. It's already dumping here in Morrisville.
post #15 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by smileguy1 View Post
Any thoughts on more southern eastern mountains like Hunter, Lake Placid, or southern Vermont? I'm in NYC and rarely ski the east, but sounds like this storm might be worth the drive. I wonder if things will be drivable?
Any thoughts?

Only ONE thought: http://www.plattekill.com/winter/index.html Thursday should be open for POWDER DAIZE. Best place to be near NYC after major dumpage IMHO.
post #16 of 27

Whats on the ground this morning?

My understanding is that this storm is a northeaster so the bigger snow totals may wrap around the tail end of the storm. If the two lows don't come together just right the totals can be lower than projected. In central NJ so far we just have dust. I checked NOAA and they are predicting 16-24 inches for central VT, but with high winds a lots of blowing, so pretty rough conditions for driving or skiing. I'm wondering if it's worth the six hour drive to VT with the bad roads, especially since we are probably flying to CO for a week on Sunday.

Is there anyone on the ground this morning in VT who can verify snow totals so far? What do things look like on the ground up there?

Thanks if advance for any replies from bears who are not already on the hill this morning.
post #17 of 27
Hang in there, we are getting clobbered in Ohio. There is two feet on the ground and more coming down.
post #18 of 27
Ths weekend is going to be a zoo up there. If it wasn't a holiday weekend, I would be headed up risking the knee. but I will hang back and give it another weeks rest.
post #19 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philpug View Post
Ths weekend is going to be a zoo up there. If it wasn't a holiday weekend, I would be headed up risking the knee. but I will hang back and give it another weeks rest.
Don't you think it might be worth it to sneak up for Thrusday and Friday and then head home?

I agree that the rest of the weekend is going to be the wild animal park up there.
post #20 of 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Philpug View Post
Ths weekend is going to be a zoo up there. If it wasn't a holiday weekend, I would be headed up risking the knee. but I will hang back and give it another weeks rest.
Agreed, although I'm still going anyway. Here's an idea of what we're looking at, crowd-wise: When I left on Sunday, my supervisor at Snow Stars said we had 47 reservations for Friday (a normal Friday is like 10-15). As of yesterday afternoon, we were at 65.

Here's an idea of what we're looking at, snow-wise. My sister woke up in Ludlow this morning to 4-6". I just spoke to her, and she said it's snowing so hard that her tracks are being filled by the time she gets back to the summit.

I can feel my eyes fading fast...Don't think I'm going to be able to see myself going to work tomorrow!
post #21 of 27
It is coming down very hard in VT right now with no signs of stopping. Windy in the Champlain Valley so it's probably a lot windier in the mountains. We'll end up with a ton of snow, question is, how much will the wind hammer it and will the wind shut down the upper lifts? Also, very cold tomorrow and Friday so be prepared. Find a spot that's wind protected tomorrow. Today, tomorrow and Friday are the days.
post #22 of 27

I'll take the blame

Yes, it's all my fault. I went out and spent the bucks on a big, brand new two-stage snow blower this fall, sooooo, of course, all the big snow storms are dumping everywhere but Minnesota. So, you can all thank me for sending the storms your way, cause ya know if I had kept my old broken down snow blower for one more winter, all that snow would be here instead!

Thank you's can be sent in the form of contributions to the Snowblower Memorial Fund for a Plane Ticket to Anywhere it's Snowing.
post #23 of 27

It was good....Very Good

Called in with Vision problems. I just couldn't see going to work.
Snow days are my holidays.

Mt. Snow is the home base, so made it to the summit by 9:20

The entire day was fresh tracks. Some trails opened a bit late, hit a bit of stuff breaking just below the waist. Gosh that's tough! The explosiv's made it all easy.

The wind picked up after about 2:00, with east facing slopes a real grit blaster.

Picked up a bit of frost on the cheeks on that last drop to lower elevations.
Yesterday the wind kept the lifts closed to the summit. It's best to go snow skiing when it's snowing

Now I have the "second day after" stiffness. Geting old is getting old!

Every season, there is one good day!
post #24 of 27
Yeah I got out late morning at Magic but it was still nice. A fair amount of windpack in areas. So glad I got my fatties for days like yesterday.

A couple of young kids at the ticket window had quit boarding because they're not used to skiing this kind of stuff (in other words - snow
post #25 of 27
Congrads, I'm very jealous !

I was supposed to take my kids to Elk ( they got almost two feet), but many of the roads were closed :-(

I don't know the area well enough to navigate around the problems, so we didn't go. I'm (hopefully) heading up to Killington Tuesday, if we can work out our room situation. My buddy had his time share set up for us, only to find out today that they rented it out from under us. (if anyone has any lodging ideas, go to http://forums.epicski.com/showthread.php?t=52336
and advise !)

I'm glad to hear that some of you guys got to get out and enjoy the great conditions.... It's been a long time comming.

WW
post #26 of 27
This storm really saved the season for many - just in time for vacation week!

By Tuesday there should be plenty of real packed powder up there to carve - nice to get an edge in that stuff.
post #27 of 27
Jay Peak got 60 inches.....
Looks like I'm heading up there tommorrow.
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