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Rejoice! The end is near!

post #1 of 23
Thread Starter 
From the national weather service:



****************

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA437 AM PST MON FEB 5 2007CAZ013>019-063-064-066>069-060200-SHASTA LAKE AREA / NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY-BURNEY BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY-CARQUINEZ STRAIT AND DELTA-NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-MOUNTAINS SOUTHWESTERN SHASTA COUNTY TO NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-CLEAR LAKE/SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-NORTHEAST FOOTHILLS/SACRAMENTO VALLEY-MOTHERLODE-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK-WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-437 AM PST MON FEB 5 2007...WET WEATHER TO RETURN TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATER THIS WEEK..THE PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ISEXPECTED TO END LATER THIS WEEK. A POWERFUL PACIFIC JET STREAMWILL FINALLY PUNCH THROUGH THE UNUSUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURERIDGE THAT HAS KEPT THE AREA DRY FOR SO LONG. THE JET STREAM WILLTAP INTO A DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AND AIM IT RIGHT ATCALIFORNIA...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY...AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND.SEVERAL INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION AND SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...OVERNORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE UPCOMING WET WEATHER COULD MAKE ASIGNIFICANT RECOVERY IN THE PRECIPITATION DEFICIT OVER NORTHERNCALIFORNIA...AND TURN THIS MONTH INTO A...FABULOUS FEBRUARY.
post #2 of 23
We're still a bit concerned about the warm pineapple express nature of this storm. The need to anti-jinx the posting of optimistic forecasts is always a consideration. You realize of course you will be held to blame for the impending washout of the ski season :

The irony of your thread title isn't lost.
post #3 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cirquerider View Post
We're still a bit concerned about the warm pineapple express nature of this storm. The need to anti-jinx the posting of optimistic forecasts is always a consideration. You realize of course you will be held to blame for the impending washout of the ski season :

The irony of your thread title isn't lost.
i WOUDN'T BE WORRIED..

I think you might see a mix at lake level but anything over 7000 el will be snow. PLus this is simply OPENING the door for more storms to come through. It's not this system that will produce lots of snow, but it is this system that will set the stage for future storms...

You see, the High pressure system is getting moved out by this storm, but the same time that high pressure system made this storm MUCH weaker than it would have been otherwise. Thankfully though, any future storm will have a clear path...


THINK SNOW!!
post #4 of 23
With the forecast for 6-inches (liquid equivalent) of precipitation through the weekend, snowfall could be very impressive, and just what is needed to finally cover the rocks, spines and chutes. Especially if winds don't go crazy high like with the last storms. So 3 to 6 feet of snow could make a difference in anyone's ski season. A 7000 foot elevation is pretty dicey for some ski area bases, especially Sierra, Homewood, and Northstar. Higher elevations of Rose, Kirkwood, Heavenly, Alpine, Sugar Bowl and Squaw stand to benefit.
post #5 of 23

Sloppy Seconds for Utah

Oh, and of course we should not forget: sloppy seconds for Utah

APPROACHING PACIFIC UPPER LOW WILL EJECT WAVES OF ENERGY INTO THE GREAT BASIN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL BE VERY WET FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH LEFTOVERS SPILLING INTO UTAH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OROGRAPHIC FAVORED AREA OF NORTHERN UTAH COULD EVENTUALLY DO QUITE WELL THOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MODERATELY HIGH AND INITIAL DYNAMICS WEAK. SHORT WAVE RIDGE PER GFS AND ECMWF ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AND FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WEAKENING SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY. MEAN POSITION OF THE PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO FAR WEST FOR A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE AT THIS TIME.
post #6 of 23
So what are we over heah... chopped liver?

Hiked up what I usually skin up yesterday... it's just rotten up there right now. In areas there was a very hard crust over 3' of hollow nothingness. If we get a bunch at once it could be very, very scary, particularly with so many people chomping at the bit to get outside.
post #7 of 23
why did someone write that this will not break utah's pattern whe nu look at the long range patterns of several diff models in all of them slc receives signifigatntly more moisture than they had...
post #8 of 23
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xtremity View Post
i WOUDN'T BE WORRIED..

I think you might see a mix at lake level but anything over 7000 el will be snow. PLus this is simply OPENING the door for more storms to come through. It's not this system that will produce lots of snow, but it is this system that will set the stage for future storms...

You see, the High pressure system is getting moved out by this storm, but the same time that high pressure system made this storm MUCH weaker than it would have been otherwise. Thankfully though, any future storm will have a clear path...


THINK SNOW!!
Good points. In my experience when "they" say 7000 feet, as often as not you get solid snow at 6000-6500 feet. As I played with the NOAA site I discovered that snow was forecast at 6500' for the Yosemite area-lower further north.

Anyway, the bottom line is that the dry pattern is ending and historically the Sierra see more percipitation in Feb-April that the Nov-Jan periods. Last season we had a dry Jan, then got tons of snow from mid Feb thru April. Kirkwood and Dodge closed due to lack of interest, not snow.
post #9 of 23
In my experience, when they say 7000 feet it means occasional rain / snow mix even at the summit, intermittent rain at 8000 feet and heavy rain with little snow at 7000 feet. Anyone remember Christmas storms last year (05-06)? Those were forecast similarly and I remember skiing in rain mix 2/3 of the way up Kirkwood, with rain at the base. I will hope for the best in that regard that the snow level does indeed stay near 7000 which would be fine.

For this weekend, I expect lower ski areas to be getting hit hard with a mix of precipitation and higher ski areas to be on wind hold with 90+ MPH winds blasting over the summits. This storm is coming in on the nose of a very strong jet which will make the summits a no-go zone for a while.
post #10 of 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cirquerider View Post
...higher ski areas to be on wind hold with 90+ MPH winds blasting over the summits. This storm is coming in on the nose of a very strong jet which will make the summits a no-go zone for a while.
Niiiiiiice.... wind load over rotten base... the backcountry should be a joy after this one.

Ah, well, once it all comes down hopefully we'll start seeing some regular snow.
post #11 of 23
Jeepers. So am I going to have a wasted time at Heavenly this weekend?
post #12 of 23
Heavenly will be getting pounded by snow at the upper elevations. High southwesterly winds will affect the California side a bit more than the Nevada side. Lower elevations should sheltered but we often see wind holds imposed on the Gondola, Comet, Dipper, Sky Express and Canyon lifts. The best bet is to stay tuned to the forecasts and the ski area website which will post any wind holds.

Considering that we haven't had any storms to talk about for over a month, this thread may contain excessive bitching, moaning, pessimism and ranting in order to offset any jinx related to effusive optimism.

EDIT: I thought I'd add this from a meet on the hill thread.
You can monitor wind speed, direction and temperature at the summits at real time NWS sites

This link is 8700 feet on the Sierra crest and
this link is on top of Slide Mountain, NV and usually the worst case.
This link is Squaw High Camp At this time you can see how the winds have come up from zero at noon yesterday to a steady 24 MPH with gusts over 40 at the time of this post.

MN DY Hour Temp Wind Precip Snow
Dir Speed Gust Hrly Acc New Depth
2 6 0900 39 220 24 38 0.00 0.00 24 199
2 6 0800 38 222 22 43 0.00 0.00 0 133
2 6 0700 38 220 20 39 0.00 0.00 0 128
2 6 0600 39 221 20 36 0.00 0.00 0 125
2 6 0500 39 218 20 36 0.00 0.00 0 124
2 6 0400 40 222 20 38 0.00 0.00 0 128
2 6 0300 39 226 17 36 0.00 0.00 0 127
2 6 0200 39 228 14 28 0.00 0.00 0 79
2 6 0100 40 220 14 31 0.00 0.00 0 129
2 5 2400 41 226 16 31 0.00 0.00 0 126
2 5 2300 42 229 13 26 0.00 0.00 0 128
2 5 2200 43 256 10 23 0.00 0.00 0 125
2 5 2100 45 212 5 14 0.00 0.00 0 123
2 5 2000 47 214 1 7 0.00 0.00 0 126
2 5 1900 44 248 2 8 0.00 0.00 0 127
2 5 1800 43 319 1 7 0.00 0.00 0 123
2 5 1700 45 323 1 10 0.00 0.00 0 123
2 5 1600 47 274 2 11 0.00 0.00 1 199
2 5 1500 49 296 5 13 0.00 0.00 26 199
2 5 1400 52 317 1 5 0.00 0.00 23 199
2 5 1300 52 255 0 0 0.00 0.00 28 199
2 5 1200 50 254 0 0 0.00 0.00 26 199
post #13 of 23
a good time is not a wasted time. and even with paltry snow, one can still have a good time. i've been going out every weekend and making the best of it.
post #14 of 23
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by dookey67 View Post
a good time is not a wasted time. and even with paltry snow, one can still have a good time. i've been going out every weekend and making the best of it.
I agree. Actually, except for yesterday the skiing has been surprisingly good at Dodge. But you do have to pick which runs to ski. (14 days, 9 rocks hit, two base repairs-priceless.)

Yesterday was quite warm. Slush by noon.

However note this from the NOAA website:


...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE WEST SLOPE OF THE SIERRA INCLUDING WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY
AND THE LASSEN PARK AREA..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A SNOW
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY..
THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE...WITH LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
PASSES AND OVER RIDGES. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
6000 TO 6500 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY...LOWERING TO 4500 TO 5500
FEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY APPROACH A
FOOT OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS...WITH 4 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE AS LOW
AS 6000 FEET. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

Note that more precipitation is expected to follow for the next 6 days.

(in order to prevent any jinx, the above is simply stated with no expectation )
post #15 of 23

New snow advisory for Tahoe

Issued at: 4:01 PM PST 2/6/07, expires at: 4:00 AM PST 2/7/07

Snow advisory in effect above 6500 feet from 10 am to 10 pm pst wednesday,
The NWS in reno has issued a snow advisory, which is in effect from 10 am to 10 pm
pst Wednesday.
Snow will return to the tahoe area Wednesday. Snow levels will start out at 6500
feet or above during the day, dropping to lake level by the evening. 4 to 8 inches of
snow are expected above 6500 feet in the lake tahoe area, with 2 to 4 inches of wet
snow at lake level.
A snow advisory means that periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties.
If you are planning travel across the sierra on Wednesday, be prepared for snow
covered roads, limited visibilities. Check local road conditions before departing.
post #16 of 23
This storm romping into California looks like a big 'un. I am thinking of getting up to Kirkwood this weekend. I wonder how the spur is going to be?

Anyone have any floor space, I'll probably bring up a down bag and sleeping pad in hopes of finding a place to crash at night and maybe pull a 2 day trip out of it.
post #17 of 23
So far we have light rain, warm temps, and only moderate wind on the west slope with the snow level at about 7000+feet.
The precip has not yet reached Tahoe. So far so good.

post #18 of 23
just snow in tahoe already, im there in 17 days and need it to dump so i have fun, please SNOWWWWWWWWWWWW
post #19 of 23
This from one of my main ski partners who's pretty good at spotting avalanche conditions. Conditions here are similar to what goes on in the Wasatch. I'm absolutely thrilled re: new snow coming (esp since I have three days planned at Alta starting tomorrow - yay!!) but it's a good time to be aware of your surroundings.

Looks like a decent storm coming this weekend / early next week, finally.

We have had ages of cold clear weather and now a little bit of pretty warm clear weather. We have had 4 days in a row of barely freezing at the snotel site in Berry, and warm days in the 40's.

I think this means that protected northerly high elevation slopes will be turning a little creamy instead of powdery. Upper layers may be getting denser, making potential for a slide greater. Sunny slopes (that still have snow) will have a crust or even corn, but if not refreezing at night could be unstable, leading to potential wet slides on warm days.

Provided there is a freeze at night I would say our danger is currently low, if no freeze moderate moving to high as the sun warms up upper layers.

Now if this is a significant storm I would expect all slopes that have been firmed up (wind crust, scoured, or sun crust) to be very slidy until the new snow has bonded to the old. Other shaded and protected slopes seem to be all sugar and facets on the surface. Heavy snow on top of that also could mean danger.

so bottom line during and after the storm choose your travel routes carefully staying off and not below slopes 30 degree slopes or greater, and understand the local snowpack where ever you may be. Its not deep even after we get a big dump, so it is not much effort to dig a pit and fuss around a little.

www.avalanche.org has links to educational opportunities and some online resources.

A special note on Mainstreet, North fork of timber. This is a slide path even though it only slides in the worst of conditions. This could be the time as i expect it is hard as a rock and smooth ( ie no friction) significant snow could equal a slide here, probably not running too far, but none the less I would travel on ridges rather than skinning right up the gut as we usually do.

I don't mean to scare you all into staying home and watching TV but just be aware of your surroundings and use caution.
post #20 of 23
Very unusual to have the degree of facets and hoar that built up, especially on north and northeast exposures in the Sierra. The warmer weather for the past week did stabilized some of the snow, but some of the facets actually go to ground, and well take a long time to stabilized with the new loading. Anyone venturing into backcountry should be looking the Sierra Avalanche Center forecasts and reports; and be capable of assessing a lot of changes that could occur with small aspect and elevation changes.


What I mean to say is...Its snowing at Kirkwood and raining at Sierra at Tahoe. Pretty much what we figured.
post #21 of 23
I got snow in Mammoth Lakes at 7800 feet... :
post #22 of 23

it is interesting to see that weather radar

but im in central ca right under the green area and we have had almost no precip
post #23 of 23
mammoth cams look nice right now.
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