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Move over for Tahoe, Sierra and Great Basin West

post #1 of 19
Thread Starter 
Ok, the East has winter again and skiing is improving.

Now move over and make some room for us snow deprived Sierra skiers. We are under a weather phenomenon called a Rex block which brings a split jet stream into Canada and Mexico, leaving the middle completely dry.

East Coast is out of here.

This is now the BMC thread for the Sierras and Great Basin West which is in a sustained cold snow drought.
post #2 of 19
The 10-day sure is depressing.
post #3 of 19
No, it should be OK. I'm heading to Whistler for 2 weeks on Tuesday. That ususally guarantees snow in the mountains at home
post #4 of 19

Pna

The Positive PNA hell factor...

post #5 of 19
Yep seen a lot of these Rex blocks parked off the coast over the years. Quite frustrating at this prime time of the winter. Usually when the hard turd that is constipating the global northern jetstream finally passes the sfinkter narrows, the jet stream goes nuts awhile all over the globe. Sometimes here on the Pacific Coast that can mean a big pineapple express storm mixed in with colder storms. ---dave
post #6 of 19
How longs does this usually last? I'm going to be in Tahoe February 5 - 9. Any chance I might be okay?
post #7 of 19
Thread Starter 
The positive PNA or Rex block pattern can be very persistent. Its already a week and a half old and will easily persist to the end of January. We are at risk of not just having our ski season compromised, but will likely see consequences in our water supply next summer as well. With that said, the nature of storms in the Sierra is that a strong storm cycle can make up for a dry month. Lets hope that happens.

Meanwhile, I was going to go to Kirkwood on Sunday but decided against it when I saw winds were high. Turned out to be a good decision as winds were ripping over the ridges keeping all upper mountain lifts closed all day, and even mid-mountain lifts 5 and 11 were closed until noon. Great, now we have hurricane force winds, and no snow. :
post #8 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by deltat View Post
How longs does this usually last? I'm going to be in Tahoe February 5 - 9. Any chance I might be okay?
So am I. If you have been skiing the east lately you should be all set for the conditions. Nothing to do but make the best out of it. heavenly and Kirkwood are prolly the best bet as Kirkwood has the best conditions and Heavenly the best snow making. Should have booked Alyeska Alaska. best season ever so far.
post #9 of 19
Cirque, this is so depressing. My best friend lives in Reno and she's been telling me about your weather.

If it makes you feel any better, while our skiing was great this weekend, it was also FRIGID, with high winds making it about minus 40 on Saturday. :

Sending you some snow-dance vibes...

Thatsagirl
post #10 of 19
Thread Starter 
Blue skies

Blue skies smilin' at me
Nothin' but blue skies do I see
Bluebirds singin' a song
Nothin' but bluebirds all day long
Never saw the sun shinin' so bright
Never saw things goin' so right
Noticing the days hurrying by
When you're in love, my how they fly
Blue days, all of them gone
Nothin' but blue skies from now on

(Blue skies smilin' at me
Nothin' but blue skies do I see)
Never saw the sun shinin' so bright
Never saw things goin' so right
Noticing the days hurrying by
When you're in love, my how they fly
Blue days, all of them gone
Nothin' but blue skies from now on
Nothin' but blue skies from now on
post #11 of 19
Not to start a war, but if the current weather pattern holds for , oh, say the next 4-weeks or so, well tough Californians and for us eastern folk - it's about time!:
post #12 of 19
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by crank View Post
Not to start a war, but if the current weather pattern holds for , oh, say the next 4-weeks or so, well tough Californians and for us eastern folk - it's about time!:
Having snow in California does not preclude a good Eastern snowpack. In fact a pattern that comes into the West coast bringing snow to the Sierra and Wasatch that ridges over Wyoming and the Dakotas brings frequent Alberta Clippers and can merge with gulf moisture or Nor'Easters to bring your best shot of snowfall.

Remember, the enemy here is the split stream delivering our snow to the PNW and Colorado. :
And like any split-stream: its weak and usually misses.
post #13 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cirquerider View Post
Having snow in California does not preclude a good Eastern snowpack. In fact a pattern that comes into the West coast bringing snow to the Sierra and Wasatch that ridges over Wyoming and the Dakotas brings frequent Alberta Clippers and can merge with gulf moisture or Nor'Easters to bring your best shot of snowfall.

Remember, the enemy here is the split stream delivering our snow to the PNW and Colorado. :
And like any split-stream: its weak and usually misses.
What snow are you talking about? We haven't seen new snow here in 10 days, and the 10-day forecast has us dry as well! That is pretty typical for El Nino here in the PNW, though. I did a 2-hour ride today in 50-degree weather.
post #14 of 19
> Ok, the East has winter again and skiing is improving.
Bollocks. It's just cold here, still no freaking snow.

Northern New Hampshire has gotten 10 - 12 inches total natural snowfall this winter. Vermont and NY have fared a better, but not too noticeably.

OTOH, I'm going to Tahoe in a few weeks, so new snow is needed BADLY.

Should have booked a trip to Whistler, dammit.
post #15 of 19
glimmer of hope from noaa:

...SYNOPSIS...
REX BLOCK LOCATED ACROSS THE WRN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ON
FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL STATES WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER NRN BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND ALBERTA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER SONORA/WRN CHIHUAHUA TO DISLODGE AND TRACK ENE
TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER ON THE SPEED THAT THE LOW EJECTS TO THE ENE...
WITH THIS SYSTEM LIKELY REACHING SRN OK/N TX BY 12Z SATURDAY PER 12Z
GFS/00Z UKMET SOLUTIONS.
post #16 of 19
^"CHIHUAHUA TO DISLODGE AND TRACK ENE TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER ON THE SPEED THAT THE LOW EJECTS TO THE ENE...WITH THIS SYSTEM LIKELY REACHING SRN OK/N TX BY 12Z SATURDAY PER 12Z GFS/00Z UKMET SOLUTIONS."

does this mean once the little dog is let loose we're gonna see some snow?
post #17 of 19
It looks like the above didn't happen. Still looking crappy for next week.
post #18 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by deltat View Post
It looks like the above didn't happen. Still looking crappy for next week.
These things take a while to clear out. PNA is still forecast to go negative in week 2 of Feb. Then snowy weather should return to the West. Unfortunately, a negative PNA is also a factor in warmer/drier weather for the ECers.

post #19 of 19
Thread Starter 
I don't know Powdr, that graph doesn't look like it trends negative to me. Meanwhile the long-term official says its springtime with no end in sight. Looks like watching the superbowl between two midwest teams is a real possibility.

Quote:
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS BY WEEK`S END. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR ASCENT INTO THE UPPER FIFTIES/LOW SIXTIES...LOW FIFTIES FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT`S GOING TO FEEL MORE LIKE SPRING THAN JANUARY! SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE SOME MID AND UPPER MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE. THIS COULD MODERATE OUR TEMPERATURES SOME...SO DECIDED TO STAY BELOW MEX GUIDANCE FOR NOW. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTION WILL BE FAR TO THE NORTH...IN THE PAC NW. STILL VERY HARD TO SAY WHEN AND IF THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN.
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