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Mountain Real Estate?

post #1 of 18
Thread Starter 
I'm strongly considering the purchase of a mountain vacation home/condo for tax reasons. My first choices are Colorado or Utah. Any ideas on what the local markets are like? Are they bottoming out like the rest of the country or still going strong? What appreciation/depreciation have they seen over the last several years? What are the rental markets like? Thanks in advance.
post #2 of 18

Still Booming in Happy Valley

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1gunner View Post
I'm strongly considering the purchase of a mountain vacation home/condo for tax reasons. My first choices are Colorado or Utah. Any ideas on what the local markets are like? Are they bottoming out like the rest of the country or still going strong? What appreciation/depreciation have they seen over the last several years? What are the rental markets like? Thanks in advance.
Nooo not another second home owner!!! :

Seriously things are going strong in the Vail Valley, mostly due to people buying for the reasons you outlined. Not that I blame you. Even in our little corner of Gypsum 40 miles down valley from Vail, real estate is booming. Working stiffs are moving down valley to places like Eagle and Gypsum where they can "afford"

A 3 bedroom 1600 ft house being built next door to us is hitting the market at 439K... we bought our 3 bedroom 1600 ft 2 years ago for 302K (brand new)..probally not as fancy, but our lot is bigger and has better views.J ust an illustration on the market in the Vail region..Anyway the market here is completely different than say Denver/Front Range..
post #3 of 18
Random ramblings:
I believe it is a safe generalization to say that almost the whole country is overpriced right now and in for some kind of correction, but I know an arguement could be made that select places of extreme desirability may still enjoy appreciation or resistance to the bubble effect.
If you fish around this site http://money.cnn.com/magazines/busin...ate/index.html you'll see talk about this not being a good time to buy in Bend, Sacramento, Reno, and Denver areas due to overpricing.
Cal to CO appears to corroborate by implying the next couple years might present some relative bargains in the CO front range area just west of Denver?
Don't know where you're from, but much Western real estate still looks cheap in comparison to East and West coast urban areas.
You might look into Ogden, UT and environs.
post #4 of 18
All I was trying to say was that in the Vail area the bubble has not burst.
I don't know about other mountain areas, but when i was up in jackson a while back, there prices seemed close to Vail prices
post #5 of 18
All I was trying to say was that in the Vail area the bubble has not burst. The market here is being driven by second home owners/retirees, plus the lack of private land available for development (88% of Eagle County is Public Land). I am sure this topic has been talked about ad naseum in other threads. No real estate basement bargains here, but the market has not flattened (yet)
post #6 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1gunner View Post

or Utah...
Ogden, Huntsville, Eden, Mountain Green, Morgan.

Buy there now and 20 years from now you'll want to buy me a bottle of Dom Perignon.
post #7 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Peters View Post
Ogden, Huntsville, Eden, Mountain Green, Morgan.

Buy there now and 20 years from now you'll want to buy me a bottle of Dom Perignon.
20 years is many turns down the road!!!:
post #8 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Peters View Post
Ogden, Huntsville, Eden, Mountain Green, Morgan.

Buy there now and 20 years from now you'll want to buy me a bottle of Dom Perignon.
Bob,

Have you checked prices in the Ogden Valley lately? Prices are up quite a bit in the last three years; but, I wonder what happens to those prices if Earl ever starts building at Snowbasin. BTW, it looks like Cache County is going to allow Powder Mtn to develop a northern entrance. Maybe a Cache Valley home would be a good buy.

There's a reason they call it real estate speculation.
post #9 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Incahoots View Post
Bob,

Have you checked prices in the Ogden Valley lately? Prices are up quite a bit in the last three years; but, I wonder what happens to those prices if Earl ever starts building at Snowbasin. BTW, it looks like Cache County is going to allow Powder Mtn to develop a northern entrance. Maybe a Cache Valley home would be a good buy.

There's a reason they call it real estate speculation.
I know the prices are rising, but I believe Ogden Valley is still a significant value relative to many other resort areas around Utah and the intermountain west. The proximity to excellent skiing, a metro area, a great airport, and all the other outdoor recreation that Utah offers is just incredible.

I think that area surrounding Snowbasin offers just about the best value combination available in real estate in the Utah/Colorado/Wyoming region right now. Holding and Powder Mountain would just be icing on the cake (which would go nicely with my bottle of champagne, come to think of it).

Just my opinion, of course.
post #10 of 18
Morgan Valley really lacks when it comes to outdoor opportunities. The mountains to the west are landlocked and private owners will not let you in unless you know them. And by know them I mean you are at least second generation Morganite and attend church with them. I think it would be extremely difficult to own a second home in this area and break in.

Other than that there are some great people living in the area and the golf is cheap, as well as good access to the Weber River.

that may change in the future but it is what it is at this point in time.

Ogden Valley is more what you are looking for. It has more of a resort feel and has more trails for summer recreation.
post #11 of 18
What specific neighborhoods in Ogden look the best in terms of good housing stock (ie charming 1940-vintage bungalows, Victorians, etc.), reasonable LDS/non-LDS diversity, etc.? I realize this has been discussed before, but I don't know that specific areas have been discussed, or at least that's what a quick search shows. Sorry for any repetition.
post #12 of 18
Ogden Valley is not Ogden. Ogden Valley is about 20-25 minutes east on the other side of the mountains.

Ogden, the city, is pretty urban but you have great access to mountain trails, golf, and 25th street has some good eating.

The eastern bench of Ogden is the best area to live but owning a second home in Ogden will not give you the resort feel you are looking for.

You can see the difference here:
http://www.ovba.org/
http://www.ogdencity.com/

Here is a good real estate site for Utah real estate. Search in Weber County and include the towns of Huntsville and Eden.
http://utahrealestate.com/
post #13 of 18
In general, it seems many of the ski resort areas have not been directly affected as of yet, however; inventories are rising and that is the first sign. More money is migrating away from RE and into the Stock market for safety. if the mortgage rates tick up , the prices will fall or stagnate for sure. There is a lot of twitching going on right now with the many folks who bought in over their heads with ARMs, If the ARMs spike it will cause prices to fall, when many can't get out of an escalating mortgage payment; many gambled that the appreciation on the house would outstrip the payment (speculation). If you have negative equity and have to sell, it ain't a good thing for them, but could be bargain for you. I am on the sideline waiting to see if there is a drop. I don't think you'll see any real change unitl spring when folks list their homes and inventories spike.
post #14 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finndog View Post
... There is a lot of twitching going on right now with the many folks who bought in over their heads with ARMs, If the ARMs spike it will cause prices to fall, when many can't get out of an escalating mortgage payment; many gambled that the appreciation on the house would outstrip the payment (speculation). If you have negative equity and have to sell, it ain't a good thing for them, but could be bargain for you. ...
Way back when sonny boys, I remember renting a house in L.A. in the early 90's when the bottom dropped out of the aerospace industry and who knows what all ... seemed like a lot of homeowners were "underwater" on their loans and giving them back to the banks which built up big REO portfolios. Borrowers were suing lenders for having the audacity to believe the appraisals the borrowers had given when they bought in and thought the sky was a limit. For 3 straight years when my lease came up the landlord asked me to buy him out -- at a lower and lower price. When I moved out of L.A., he was asking about 55% of what he'd bought the place for something like 6 to 8 years earlier. I haven't tracked it too closely but had I bought in then -- around 1994/1995 -- and stayed, zillow.com tells me it would be worth about 3 times what I could've bought it for.

Now as a prospective buyer -- that's the cycle I'm looking for.

I haven't followed it that closely but it seems to me a lot of vacation property has been selling on the "bigger fool" theory. I.e., it doesn't matter what I pay, because I'm going to sell it to a bigger fool next year.

At some point there's no bigger fool -- and interest rates tighten, the economy turns down, etc. etc.

That's when I want to buy a ski condo.
post #15 of 18
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ts01 View Post
Way back when sonny boys, I remember renting a house in L.A. in the early 90's when the bottom dropped out of the aerospace industry and who knows what all ... seemed like a lot of homeowners were "underwater" on their loans and giving them back to the banks which built up big REO portfolios. Borrowers were suing lenders for having the audacity to believe the appraisals the borrowers had given when they bought in and thought the sky was a limit. For 3 straight years when my lease came up the landlord asked me to buy him out -- at a lower and lower price. When I moved out of L.A., he was asking about 55% of what he'd bought the place for something like 6 to 8 years earlier. I haven't tracked it too closely but had I bought in then -- around 1994/1995 -- and stayed, zillow.com tells me it would be worth about 3 times what I could've bought it for.

Now as a prospective buyer -- that's the cycle I'm looking for.

I haven't followed it that closely but it seems to me a lot of vacation property has been selling on the "bigger fool" theory. I.e., it doesn't matter what I pay, because I'm going to sell it to a bigger fool next year.

At some point there's no bigger fool -- and interest rates tighten, the economy turns down, etc. etc.

That's when I want to buy a ski condo.
Thanks for the replies and btw this is a great forum!

I guess were all in different cycles then. I live in the Florida panhandle where we were seeing 25-35% annual appreciation from around 2001 till early '05. Then with rising rates, hurricanes and increased fuel prices the bottom litterally dropped out of the market overnight. We have actually bottomed out and are starting to see a slight bit of upward movement again.

It is my understanding that the secondary home market in Breckenridge, for instance, saw a more moderate and consistant rate of appreciation than similar areas here in the south. The fact that mountain markets have sustained themselves, albeit at a slower rate than ours, through the last year or two of such volitility then maybe it is a more bubble resistant market. In other words if it hasn't slowed yet I don't see what would slow it. Just a thought.
post #16 of 18
My gut tells me that you may want to wait a year or two. The 2nd ski home market is fueled by Calif and east Coast equity. Now that those markets are cooling some Real Estate Rich Cash poor will ned to sell something off. That Co or Utah ski home won't pay for its self off of rental income. Negative cash flow may not off set lack luster appreciation. If you plan on a long term hold and can take a negitive for a few years, it might pay off.
post #17 of 18
1gunner,
What did you decide?
post #18 of 18
Thread Starter 
Looked quite a bit in Breck and Avon but regretfully never made a move. Most of the properties I was interested in have sold and comparables that are now on the market are listed for around 7-15% higher. Maybe this will be the year.
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