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NOAA Outlook just o.k.

post #1 of 15
Thread Starter 
NOAA is predicting mild winter for most of the nation. Winter temperatures will be above normal though slightly cooler than last year. The precipitation outlook is better for us down here in New Mexico. It had better be, because last year was a disaster. The precipitation outlook for this winter calls for wetter than average conditions across the Southwest, normal across the Central Rockies, and drier than normal for the Northern Rockies. Looks like ski conditions in Montana and Idaho are going to be ugly this winter if NOAA's prediction holds true.
post #2 of 15
Ugly? Please don't say that.

My local analyst of chicken entrails tells me that el nino is weak and prognostications are not reliable.
post #3 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by nolo View Post
Ugly? Please don't say that.

My local analyst of chicken entrails tells me that el nino is weak and prognostications are not reliable.
Chicken entrails is a primative, superstitious method for predicting weather. I go with more reliable sources like my neighbor that says the aggressive hornets we had in the late summer point to an early winter while another pointed out that the abundance of wooly worms points to the same.
post #4 of 15
El nino is strengthening and we are looking a poor year for 90% of the country, with the pnw and northern rockies farng the worst. Only the SW has a solid chance of beating last year. The east forecast is also warm, but I would venture a fair chance of having a better season, but still likely poor.

Regardless of the naysayers, weather and climatic forecasting improve every year. The climate, however has not.
post #5 of 15
You all are looking at wrong forecast. Here is correct one - predicts good cold and wet weather almost everywhere. I'm sticking with this one:
http://www.almanac.com/weatherforecast/us/15
post #6 of 15
Thanks StevensMan, now I know when to schedule my vacation time.
post #7 of 15
from the alamanac " September and October will be wetter and warmer than normal, on average. " - in PNW.

well! has this prediction been right so far.
post #8 of 15
Anybody check out the woolbear caterpillars?

Now this is a start for the East Coast

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.ph...Snow+Warni ng
post #9 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marty View Post
from the alamanac " September and October will be wetter and warmer than normal, on average. " - in PNW.

well! has this prediction been right so far.
Sure, all except for the wetter part.
post #10 of 15
Hey... I work at NOAA
post #11 of 15
I don't think el nino affects the East side? Just the Pacific bit. We in Australia hate el nino and currently have a huge drought. It's meant to be mid spring right now, but our temperatures are shooting into the high 30 C range today. I think that el nino generally affects the Americas with wetter weather than normal (opposite for us). Wet often means warmer though. Check what the Woolly Worms reckon though.
post #12 of 15
I ski Snowbowl in Flagstaff and Sunrise in eastern AZ - I like El Nino.



Dave
post #13 of 15
Quote:
Originally Posted by ant View Post
I don't think el nino affects the East side? Just the Pacific bit. We in Australia hate el nino and currently have a huge drought. It's meant to be mid spring right now, but our temperatures are shooting into the high 30 C range today. I think that el nino generally affects the Americas with wetter weather than normal (opposite for us). Wet often means warmer though. Check what the Woolly Worms reckon though.

El nino means warmer wether for the east coast. No, it does mean wetter than normal - it means the wetter systems tend to push further south and the upper half of US and CA are drier than normal.
post #14 of 15
The SE is supposed to have a normal winter whatever that is...because last winter was rediculous. It was in the 70's and sometimes higher in Jan. and Feb. was the coldest month. I think last year was also the only year we didn't really have any winter precipitation at all. I mean usually, it's a dusting of snow or ice, but last year it was nothing.
post #15 of 15
Thread Starter 

Damned jet stream!

57 inches already YTD in Wolf Creek, but the big storm missed us down here in NM again. I hope this is not a pattern again...Colorado getting all the storm and New Mexico staying dry. I guess I will have to shlep my gear up to the Front Range again all winter if it does.:
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