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Slowdown in Ski Country Real Estate? - Page 2

post #31 of 54
I think Jackson probably lags only Aspen in scarcity of buildable land. Did either of these areas see price decreases in late 1980's/early 1990's?

For most real estate markets I agree with newfydog and Uncle Louie that caution is in order. Most of SoCal is now flat in price with decreasing volume of sales over the last few months.
post #32 of 54
Bob...I have a few questions.

I have always though of Jackson as a winter destination. Of course I always lived many many miles away and flunked geography (forgetting how close Yellowstone is)

Do you consider your area to be a Summer or Winter destination ? (and) Are most of the sales in your area Summer / Winter or Year Round use ?

If you look at vinns numbers of between 19/35% increase in the last four years and 98/104% in four years here, that would perhaps make one market terribly undervalued or one very overvalued or both.

What did your increase in values look like the last few years ?
post #33 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Peters
I may be whistling past the graveyard, but there just isn't any sign of a slowdown here.
Oh, come on Bob. You know all those sales are just the VP and his oil chronies buying everything is sight with their "windfall profits"!!!

L
post #34 of 54
One of the reasons I left JH after 17 fun and interesting years was the summer traffic gridlock. It got very old. The cool thing about the JH area dispite all the people it's not very hard to get away from them as they congregate in both parks and the town of Jackson. Kinda like fly paper.

When I finally got my own little place in JH, actually it was in Hoback Junction, 10 miles south of town. I owned the house but leased the land from the ranch it was sitting on. One of the best parts about working yearround at Teton Village was that in the summer it was very quiet and mellow compared to the rest of the valley. I assume that has changed abit with the improvements to the back way to Moose, GTNP Visitor Center. The worst part was getting thru the traffic gridlock on the western edge of town each day.
post #35 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncle Louie
Bob...I have a few questions.

I have always though of Jackson as a winter destination. Of course I always lived many many miles away and flunked geography (forgetting how close Yellowstone is)

Do you consider your area to be a Summer or Winter destination ? (and) Are most of the sales in your area Summer / Winter or Year Round use ?

If you look at vinns numbers of between 19/35% increase in the last four years and 98/104% in four years here, that would perhaps make one market terribly undervalued or one very overvalued or both.

What did your increase in values look like the last few years ?
Hi, Louie.

We are most definitely a summer destination. The numbers I've always heard (but never really seen verified in some kind of statistical form) are that we get about 200,000 "visitors" during the winter season and about 2,000,000 during the summer. As JH Refugee said, traffic at our main intersection leading from town to Teton Village can be nightmarish at times during the summer, at least by our standards.

Why, occasionally it'll take me as much as 18 minutes to drive the 10 miles from home to my town office during the summer. During the winter, it's more like 14. During the off-season, it's 12.

It's really hard here to put very good numbers on average price appreciations. This market is so fragmented that a few sales can very seriously skew the averages. The sale of a few homes for over $10 million each can make the "median" home price go off the charts. There was a huge land sale of 1300 acres for $110 million the year before last, for instance, that made all the comparisons go crazy. That sale set a new standard of $100,000 per acre for a large, undeveloped but developable tract. That standard was shattered last fall by the sale of a 200 acre tract for nearly $40 million. Further complicating the task is the fact that there is no requirement whatever to report the selling prices of property in our area. So the really trend-setting (read; astronomical) prices often never show up on any records and don't get included in the averages.

For whatever it's worth, the median standalone home price in Teton County the first six months of this year looks like it will be just above $1,000,000. Four years ago, that same category was just about $550,000.

And Tony, JH home prices did what I would call a "softening" from 2001 to 2002. The only prices that dropped appreciably were for someone who HAD to get out of a property. Some of that occurred during that period. Prices DID drop somewhat during the late '80's. Probably around 10-20% from 1987 to 1990.
post #36 of 54
Yeah, the market is really soft here in the mid atlantic. Our house went on the market a week ago today. We've have 3 people come through, but one came through a second time (brought the wife) for a total of 4 showings. The prices of some of the more expensive houses around here are dropping by $100k. I've heard of developers dropping their prices by close to $150k because the inventory is getting huge.

Here's the problem I see. There are a bunch of people (like me) looking to move up, and putting their houses on the market. But because the market is soft, we don't want to go and look at specific houses and make offers because the r/e agents are telling people not to make contingent offers since that takes the house off the market except for back-ups. So there are a bunch of people who want to sell their houses but no one out looking. If people put contingent offers on houses, then when one non-contingent offer is made by someone looking to move into the area or out of a rental, a bunch of offers up the line would go through. But instead, when that one non-contingent offer is made, then the seller starts going out and looking and can make a non-contingent offer, then up the line. It's a very slow process this way.

The slight advantage in this is that because it's such a slow process, prices continue to drop. So if I got a non-contingent offer, then spend 30 days looking for a new house, the prices of those houses continue to come down, so I make out a bit better. Granted this market needed a correction, but not while I'm trying to sell my house, thanks.

I think the reason for all this is that the prices had been going crazy for the past 5-10 years as lots of people moved into the area. Now that the prices are so high, the influx of new people has slowed down, but the builders kept building at the same pace. Someone needs to shut down the permits for new development.
post #37 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Peters
The sale of a few homes for over $10 million each can make the "median" home price go off the charts. There was a huge land sale of 1300 acres for $110 million the year before last, for instance, that made all the comparisons go crazy. That sale set a new standard of $100,000 per acre for a large, undeveloped but developable tract. That standard was shattered last fall by the sale of a 200 acre tract for nearly $40 million.

For whatever it's worth, the median standalone home price in Teton County the first six months of this year looks like it will be just above $1,000,000. Four years ago, that same category was just about $550,000.
Bob, are you confusing "average" price (add up all the totals and divide by # sold) with "median" price (half sell for more, half for less)?

The sale of $110M piece of land wouldn't affect the median price much, but would reak havok on the averages.
post #38 of 54
an article from today's raleigh news and observer

http://www.newsobserver.com/104/story/454086.html
post #39 of 54
John H: Where in the Mid-Atlantic? We just sold our house, in NW Philadelphia, on the first day, to the first people that looked, for more than asking price (and it was priced about right). Nice, "moderately" priced houses in this neck of the woods, i.e., under half a million, are hard to come by, although Toll Bros. McMansions in the suburbs are slowing down. We're moving to the old folks home, but if this thread is accurate, maybe we can afford something in Stowe in a couple of years. I remember the 80's New England bloodbath well. A friend had a house near Stratton and Bromley for ten years, and took a loss when he sold.
post #40 of 54
Just got back from drowning golf balls at Myrtle Beach this past week. Wife's sisters have done extremely well the past several years on real estate they have purchased at Myrtle Beach. Now , three of them are going in on a pre construction $900,000 condo on the water, thinking they'll make another killing and enjoy living in it while it appreciates like crazy.

Played golf at Arrowhead on the intercoastal waterway and the starter was telling us condos in the same building sold preconstruction for $275,000 and demand was so great the price has been readjusted to $400,000. I don't get it. I have a good friend that is a tax attorney estate planner with a division of Goldman Saks, and he advised all his clients to get out of real estate last year due mostly to a relationship between short term and long term interest rates, I believe being inverted. His firm believes a big correction is imminent.

I have a tough believing there is no ceiling on the real estate boom going on at the beach and in ski country. There has to be some price sensitivity, is there so much wealth chasing a shortage of product?

We'll just have to wait and see what goes down the next year or so, it will be interesting at the very least.
post #41 of 54

Real Estate

It has been interesting reading all of your posts, because i've just recently graduated college and i want to move to a ski town, but i would like to move somewhere, get a job, and buy a house hopefully somewhere where the Real Estate will appreciate, I was thinking mainly Tahoe, Colorado (Summit County), Jackson Hole looks good after reading these posts, I thought about Portland possibly as well. I need to get my stuff together soon too and either get a job here at home or figure out where i want to move to.
post #42 of 54
If you want to buy a home in most ski towns you better start saving now, if you happen to be a "bonus baby" even better. What area of study did you do in college?
post #43 of 54
I was in the Navy for four years, got out and lived off the G.I. Bill for awhile, just graduated with a degree in Communications Studies (Rhetorical/persuasive speaking, also now called culture and public affairs)

There is a job at Heavenly doing workers comp that pays like 12-14 an hour, it might be good to go for that just so i can get my foot in the door, plus working for vail resorts, you get free passes to all of their colorado resorts. I'm not really looking to work in the elements, if i can't get a job at a resort i might look for employment at a nearby Hotel and try to work my way up, then there's also sales/marketing options, i'm not really sure right now actually, trying to figure everything out. Right now my two main choices i'm weighing are Tahoe vs Colorado, tahoe has the views, but colorado has a lot of big mountains i've yet to experience, but yeah, i'm no trust fund baby, i'm starting from scratch, but i would like to start acquiring properties as soon as i'm in the position to do so. (since everyone loves the ski life, it seems like it might be hard to get a high paying job near a resort, think this is the case?)
post #44 of 54

Real Estate's Inconvenient Truth

Quote:
Originally Posted by roundturns
Wife's sisters have done extremely well the past several years on real estate they have purchased at Myrtle Beach. Now , three of them are going in on a pre construction $900,000 condo on the water, thinking they'll make another killing and enjoy living in it while it appreciates like crazy.


They should bail now while they have the chance. This may be the LAST coastal real estate boom ever. With the growing power and frequency of storms and shrinking insurance/mortgage options, the E. Coast/Gulf will be a fool's retreat, financially. In 10 years, the real symptoms of ocean warming, rising sea levels/tides/storm surges will conservatively lead to $1 trillion in lost coastal real estate equity.

Conversely, wetter Pacific storm-fed winters in the Rockies could mean epic snowfalls, but at higher temps and with a shorter season. Still, my money will be in the mountains.

Hank

"Save the planet?...The planet isn't going anywhere. We are! We're going away. Pack your sh_t folks. We're going away and we won't leave much of a trace either. Thank god for that. Maybe a little Styrofoam. Maybe. The planet will be here and we'll be long gone. Just another failed mutation. Just another closed end biological mistake. An evolutionary cul-de-sac. The planet will shake us off like a bad case of fleas. A surface nuisance." -- George Carlin
post #45 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by alpine_wonder
I was in the Navy for four years, got out and lived off the G.I. Bill for awhile, just graduated with a degree in Communications Studies (Rhetorical/persuasive speaking, also now called culture and public affairs)

There is a job at Heavenly doing workers comp that pays like 12-14 an hour, it might be good to go for that just so i can get my foot in the door, plus working for vail resorts, you get free passes to all of their colorado resorts. I'm not really looking to work in the elements, if i can't get a job at a resort i might look for employment at a nearby Hotel and try to work my way up, then there's also sales/marketing options, i'm not really sure right now actually, trying to figure everything out. Right now my two main choices i'm weighing are Tahoe vs Colorado, tahoe has the views, but colorado has a lot of big mountains i've yet to experience, but yeah, i'm no trust fund baby, i'm starting from scratch, but i would like to start acquiring properties as soon as i'm in the position to do so. (since everyone loves the ski life, it seems like it might be hard to get a high paying job near a resort, think this is the case?)
Everything you said can be done. The workman's comp job is a state job? I ended up in Jackson Hole by accepting the job as the unemployment guy. The crazy thing was when they offered me the job they said that I would have to go to Jackson, was in Laramie at the time, as no one else in my hiring group wanted to go there. Is that crazy or what!

There are good paying jobs but most people end up in the hospitality/service sector. To buy a home and live in the ski town takes a very good paying job. Most live 20-60 miles away.

While many ski towns have tons of jobs the restriction is finding affordable housing. Also due to tight labor market the pay can be surprisingly high. The other funny thing is that you work 6 days/week at a ski resort, even tho you have a pass you don't get much time to ski unless you have an on-mountain job.

Your plan of working, saving for a place/property as a top priority is a plan I wish I had when I first moved to Jackson.
post #46 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncle Louie
If you are a seller....good luck : . If you are a buyer have fun .
A little anecdotal comment: just got back from a week at the beach, Fenwick Is, DE/Ocean City MD area. There was a flood of all types of real estate for sale. In fact, the condo I rented was up for sale and has been for at least a half year despite at least one price reduction.
post #47 of 54
Real Estate in N.Utah is a good investment right now and that is all I will say at this time.
post #48 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker
I think Jackson probably lags only Aspen in scarcity of buildable land. Did either of these areas see price decreases in late 1980's/early 1990's?
I bought my first house in Aspen in 86, during a slow down. I don't think prices went down, but there was a fair amount of inventory that sat for a while. I was just lucky to find a motivated seller that had owned the house since 1939, so her basis was practically zero. The old victorian had become too much work for her. After the closing she told me "The only thing holding that place up, is the paint." It's been the best investment I ever made, but I don't think of it that way, because I don't think I will ever sell it.

Right now there is a lot of activity in the market and the prices are not going down. One of my friends just sold a moderately priced spec home for $7.5 mil and is looking for another lot to do it again.

Jazz fest is going on and there must be a hundred jets parked out at the airport. There is just so much money here, I don't think it these people will ever run out.
post #49 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by evansilver
John H: Where in the Mid-Atlantic? We just sold our house, in NW Philadelphia, on the first day, to the first people that looked, for more than asking price (and it was priced about right). Nice, "moderately" priced houses in this neck of the woods, i.e., under half a million, are hard to come by, although Toll Bros. McMansions in the suburbs are slowing down. We're moving to the old folks home, but if this thread is accurate, maybe we can afford something in Stowe in a couple of years. I remember the 80's New England bloodbath well. A friend had a house near Stratton and Bromley for ten years, and took a loss when he sold.
I'm just west of the DC Beltway, near Dulles Airport. I'm surprised that the real estate near Philly is doing so well, when it's in such a slump around DC right now. But then, the prices have been going bonkers for years around here, so it's to be expected. What kills me is that our house has been on the market just over a week, and we've still only had the 3 people come through. There's just no one looking right now, and it's supposed to be high season. The job markets and salaries in the area are doing really well, so I don't know why there is such a huge inventory of unsold houses. I guess it's just around the beltway that there is an issue. I was hoping for some traffic this weekend, but the weather may have kept people away. The 4th of July weekend will probably be a bust. Noone goes house hunting on holiday weekends.
post #50 of 54

Utah

Utah was on my list i was thinking of moving too along with tahoe, colorado, etc, but i just made my first trip out to Utah this year, went to Solitude and Alta, had a great time. But i realized that i could never live in Utah or the SLC shall i say... seems like everyone has this "naive innocence" that coming from California, after awhile i might not be able to handle.
The workers comp job is with Heavenly... in reality i just graduated, i should just stay in Long Beach and get a better job to build experience, but a big part of me just wants to get out of here right now, so i can ski all next winter

Real estate in california is insane, 500K for a regular type house, $1,200 to rent a one or two bedroom apartment, moving anywhere else i'll probably get more for my money (probably not a good time to buy anyways, real estate wise, we probably need another recession)
post #51 of 54
Alpine Wonder-I understand what you are saying about SLC but there is actually a very cool scene in SLC itself, mostly from Sugarhouse north to downtown. And Park City is a very cool town and you can still afford some pretty reasonable condos in the PC area.
You may want to give it a second chance.
post #52 of 54
Plus, a town is only as much as you make of it. You could stay in LA and hang out at the lame bars and it would be a lame town to you. Just find some cool people to hang out with, and it'll all work out.
post #53 of 54
depends on what you mean by "slowdown"

I sold my studio condo in Big Sky in March for 145k. My downstairs neighbor sold hers 3 weeks later for 193K. The same type of units are still in the 195+ range so yes things have gone from lightspeed to full warpspeed. Much of this depends on who is in town. Right now with the 4th just round the corner, I expect to see another price jump as the vacationers blow into town and decide to own a piece of the Sky.
post #54 of 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hoback Hank

They should bail now while they have the chance. This may be the LAST coastal real estate boom ever. With the growing power and frequency of storms and shrinking insurance/mortgage options, the E. Coast/Gulf will be a fool's retreat, financially. In 10 years, the real symptoms of ocean warming, rising sea levels/tides/storm surges will conservatively lead to $1 trillion in lost coastal real estate equity.
That's why we've just bought our retirement lot on the side of a mountain (230 m level overlooking a lake and the Cowichan Valley). High bank ocean view lots (25m to 30m above the water) were possibilities, but were obscenely priced (400 to 500k). Our .25 acre lot was expensive enough (178k), but at least no-one will steal the view. On the other hand my 75 minute commute door to Sunshine parking lot, will turn into a 2 hour drive to Mount Washington. We're counting on a wave of baby boomers leaving oil rich Alberta and retiring out to the warmest place in Canada to maintain our investment value.

In May the average house price in Calgary was increasing by $500 per day so I don't think we've seen the end of our boom yet. So if we ever get to build the dream house, we should be able to finance it out of the sale of our Calgary home with a few dollars to spare. And we still have a lot of catching up to do to reach the stratospheric levels of the Canadian west coast (as a friend of mine commented on the condo market in Vancouver: "It's amazing what $400,000 doesn't buy...").
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