or Connect
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Selection of Olympic Team

post #1 of 32
Thread Starter 
I don't know if this is of interest to anyone other than US ski racing fans (a limited group, at best). On this weekend's OLN show they briefly alluded to the Olympic selection criteria. The following is a little more background on the some subject, at least so far as I can figure it out.

The US, like all countries, can enter a max of 4 racers per event in the Olympics. This is now a pretty tight limit, particularly on the women's side, where it basically means cutting in half the number of usual World Cup starters. Lest you feel too badly for the Americans, consider the Austrians: in the men's speed events, people like Hermann Maier may not even get to race.

There are quite detailed selection criteria on the USSA website (http://ussa.org/PublishingFolder/209_1127.htm). I don't know the full background, but it looks like these were prepared in response to some USOC or legislative mandate that requires defined criteria. A quick outline, based on my reading of the comprehensive description:
- Look at results in this seasons's World Cup races, through 1/25/06.
- In declining order, a racer can qualify outright with:
* 1 top 3
* 2 top 10s
* 3 top 20s
* 3 top 30s, or 50% of starts in top 30
- If at least 3 racers qualify outright as described above, they're entered, and the fourth spot is at the coaches' discretion
- If 2 racers qualify outright, they're entered, and the 3rd and 4th spots are both coaches' discretion.
- If fewer than 2 racers qualify outright, the two with the highest discipline WC points are entered, and the 3rd and 4th are discretionary.

Note that they can name up to 22 racers to the team (up to 14 of either gender), so it may be that a number of people make the list, but never get entered in a race -- particularly since there are going to be multiple starts from Miller, Rahlves, Kildow and Mancuso at least.

Here's the current status and a guess at how it will wind up, with the racers who meet the qualifying standards and which standard they've achieved (e.g. 3 = at least 1 top 3, 30 = at least 3 top 30s, 50% = will have 50% top 30s, even if he/she races the remaining races without a top 30). Obviously, anyone can qualify with just a single top 3 finish (anyone who can finish in the top 3, that is), so I haven't noted that below.

Men's DH (2 races left)
Currently qualified: Miller(3) Rahlves(3) Nyman(30)
W/in 1: Macartney(30)
Guess: Miller Rahlves Nyman Macartney
Left out: Sullivan, Johnson
Note: Sullivan or Johnson would have to finish on the podium in one of Wengen or the Hahnenkamm, or in the top 10 in both to qualify. That's very unlikely, so the three automatics are going to be Miller, Rahlves and either Nyman or Macartney (if two racers qualify at the same level, they pick based on the result with the lowest FIS points). My guess is either Nyman or Macartney would be the 4th choice anyway, but Sullivan is also possible.

Men's SG (1 race left)
Currently: Rahlves(3) Miller(50%) Nyman(50%)
W/in 1: Macartney(10) Sullivan(50%) Miller(20/10)
Guess: Rahlves Miller Nyman Macartney
Left out: Johnson, Sullivan
Note: Pretty similar to DH. It's actually possible that Miller might need to be the discretionary choice.

Men's GS (1 race left)
Currently: Miller(3) Rahlves(3) Schlopy(10) Spencer(50%)
W/in 1: Cochran(50%/10) Ligety(10) Spencer(20)
Guess: Miller Rahlves Schlopy Ligety
Left out: Spencer, Cochran, Rothrock, Knight
Note: Miller, Rahlves and Schlopy are the automatics, and also the three obvious entrants. For the discretionary choice, I could see them going for Ligety, based on his one top 10 this year. Perhaps Cochran, who also has a top 10.

Men's SL (4 races left)
Currently: Ligety(3)
W/in 1: Nobody
Guess: Ligety Cochran Miller Rothrock
Left out: Knight McDonald Schlopy Nyman
Note: With 3 races down and fully 4 to go, this is pretty unknown. Ligety will be automatic. Miller will be if he can stand up for two clean runs the same day. Cochran might be automatic with 2 more top 30s on top of the one he has so far. If the selection were done today, Ligety and Cochran would be automatic (based on WC discipline points) -- Cochran beating out Rothrock by a single point for the second automatic spot.

Women's DH (3 races left)
Currently: Kildow(3) Lalive(3) Cook(10) Mancuso(30)
W/in 1: Clark(30) Mancuso(20/10)
Guess: Kildow Lalive Mancuso Cook
Left out: Clark Mendes McCarty Ludlow
Note: The three automatics will be Kildow, Lalive and either Cook or Mancuso (who might pass Cook with a one top 10). Given how Mancuso rose to the event at the World Championships last year, she'd be an obvious discretionary choice in any event. This is where the 4-racer limit really cuts - both Clark (the longest term speed racer on the team) and Mendes (the current national champion) are likely non-starters.

Women's SG (2 races left)
Currently: Kildow(10) Clark(10) Ludlow(30)
W/in 1: Mancuso(30/20/10) McCarty(30) Ludlow(10)
Guess: Kildow Clark Mancuso Ludlow
Left out: Lalive McCarty Mendes Cook
Note: There's a good chance Mancuso will pass Ludlow for the third spot, though Ludlow might score another top 10 and jump up two categories. Mancuso would be an obvious discretionary selection in any event.

Women's GS (1 race left)
Currently: Mancuso(30) Koznick(30)
W/in 1: Schleper(50%) Mancuso(20) Koznick(20)
Guess: Mancuso Koznick Stiegler Kildow
Left out: Schleper Mielke Kelley Ross Richardson Cook Ludlow Lalive Clark
Note: With only one race left, nobody other than Mancuso, Koznick and Schleper can possibly make any level qualification without a podium. If Schleper qualifies for the second run at Maribor, and finishes it, she'd have one top 30 in two races, so would just grab the third automatic spot.

Women's SL (2 races left)
Currently: Koznick(10) Mancuso(20) Kildow(30) Stiegler(50%)
W/in 1: Mancuso(10) Kildow(20/10)
Guess: Koznick Mancuso Kildow Stiegler
Left out: Schleper Richardson Ross Kelley
Note: This is one of the more obvious ones, even though it cuts out Schleper, who won the final WC race last year. Schleper might get in automatically or by discretion, though that would likely mean dropping Stiegler.

Men's and Women's Combined
This is treated differently in the selection criteria, almost as an after-thought. That seems to be how the Ski Team thinks of it, as they sometimes don't even use all the available starting spots. There are two automatic entrants for the racers with the "highest single World Cup point results during the selection period in the World Cup Combined." I think that means the two people with the highest single places in World Cup combined event, rather than overall WC points or something.
Men - There's only been one WC combined race so far. The two choices would be Miller (who was 3rd) and Ligety (10th). Macartney (21st) also raced. There's a super-combined still to come at Wengen, and a combined at Kitzbuhel. It's likely that the same people will enter them ... and that they'll be the three people entered in the Olympics.
Women - There hasn't even been a combined yet, and there will be only one, at St. Moritz, during the selection period. The likely entrants in it (and in the Olympic combined) are Kildow and Mancuso. Lalive is, I guess, possible, though she hasn't raced slalom for a while.
post #2 of 32
Thanks for "sifting through the sand box" ..... for all of that stuff!
post #3 of 32

Very nice analysis! You can see how difficult it can be to go through selections. With a four athlete quota, someone will be left off. Now do the same for the Austrian Team!!!
post #4 of 32
Great Post! Thanks for taking the time. I haven't realized how weak the SL results have been this year for the US Team... they need to invest a lot in some technical skiing. I know competing with Austria means speed training, but they seem to have lost some ground in the technical areas. Hopefully as some young blood comes in over the next few years that will change...
post #5 of 32
Definitely looking forward to seeing Ligety in the Olympics- I haven't seen him ski since last season, but have heard nothing but good things. Hopefully a few athletes besides Bode will get attention during the games.
post #6 of 32
We still have an incredible pool of tech skiers. After all, GS is a tech event, and Miller, Rahlves, Schlopy, and a couple others are doing fairly well (at least by my standards) in that discipline. Before Bode came along, can anyone name a male US slalom skier to podium in a World Cup more than once in a season since the Mahre's? That was over 20 years ago.

We're really seeing the depth of the team across the board, not just in a discipline or two as it has been in the past. The women are hitting frequently too, so something must be working. I'm not the biggest fan of Bill Marolt, but I have to give him and the organization credit- we are seeing results now. Whatever combination of planning and luck led to this perfect storm, I just hope it continues.
post #7 of 32
True about the recent success, but it seemed that the success was better when Bode was winning the slaloms. After his switch to speed events, it seemed like the team lost a little bit of the advantage that they had in that arena... although they gained it back in two speed events. Either way the team is stronger than it has ever been. Hopefully they keep working on increasing the depth of the team, and not just focusing on the few stars that they have right now.
post #8 of 32
AK Mike:

Don't know if anyone made two WC SL podiums in a season during that period. I know Felix McGrath came close with a 2nd and 5th in 88 when he placed 3rd overall. As far as the Tech Team goes, the US is doing very well. Jimmy Cochran's 7th and 15th in the last two WC's (GS and SL) hopefully is going to get him on track. Otherwise, I agree that without Bode finishing any slaloms it is a little thin, but Ligety is doing absolutely awsome! Not sure what is ailing Rothrock and Schlopy. Both should be doing better. Slalom is a very tricky discipline.
post #9 of 32
Hence the two podium deal. Felix was obviously a bright spot in the long dry spell for the team in tech events. With Jimmy and Ted really starting to tear it up, I have great hopes for the team in the post Bode and Daron era. Watching Jimmy during the 2004 Nationals was incredible- the kid just laid it down.

Let's hope that OLN starts to show more tech events as we get results there. Seems the staff is a little heavy on the speed junkies with Chad and Steve, and that may be influencing the programming.
post #10 of 32
After reading the thread title I assumed this was about Canada's Olympic team!
post #11 of 32
Thread Starter 
Originally Posted by Alaska Mike
We still have an incredible pool of tech skiers. After all, GS is a tech event, and Miller, Rahlves, Schlopy, and a couple others are doing fairly well (at least by my standards) in that discipline. Before Bode came along, can anyone name a male US slalom skier to podium in a World Cup more than once in a season since the Mahre's?
Good point. Don't think there was one. I believe the last was Phil Mahre, with 3 third places in 1983-84.

For a particularly futile season (for the men, anyway), consider 1990-91: No male US skier scored a single WC point in slalom. Or Super G, for that matter. Only 4 racers scored any points, finishing the year 50th, 59th, 74th and 91st in the overall. Nobody made the podium in any event. The US men's team was 10th in the Nation's Cup.
post #12 of 32
Thread Starter 

Women's Slalom (Spoiler)

After today's race in Zagreb:
3-Kostelic (hometown favorite, moved up from 7th after first run, despite losing a pole and a glove part way through the second run)

Revised status of Olympic team selection:

Women's SL (1 race left)
Currently: Koznick(10) Mancuso(20) Kildow(20) Stiegler(30) Schleper(50%)
W/in 1: Mancuso(10) Kildow(10) Stiegler(20/10) Schleper(30/20) Ross(30)
Guess: Koznick Kildow Stiegler Mancuso
Left out: Schleper Richardson Ross Kelley
Note: On the basis of the criteria, Koznick, Mancuso and Kildow are automatic selections at this point, and for the discretionary selection they could take either Stiegler or Schleper (or someone else, though that wouldn't make much sense).

This could get reshuffled in the last slalom Sunday, but: the highest criterion Schleper can meet (without making the podium) is three top 20s (which is fairly likely). It's more likely that Stiegler will also wind up with three top 20s, or maybe two top 10s. Mancuso or Kildow could also wind up with two top 10s, though that's not as likely.

It doesn't appear likely that Schleper will be one of the three automatics, absent a stronger result Sunday. If multiple racers meet the same selection criterion, they rank them according to best FIS pt result: at this point, Mancuso 16.56, Stiegler 19.06, Kildow 19.28, Schleper 21.91.

It's possible that Schleper could be chosen as a discretionary choice over Mancuso or maybe Kildow, assuming Stiegler bumps one of them from the automatic group.

Mancuso didn't race today due to (says Ski Racing) "a longstanding plan to travel home to California for the New Year holiday."
post #13 of 32
Considering that Resi Stiegler wasn't on skis at all in October/November and most of December, that 10th is a great finish.

I'm a little prejudiced ( ), but I sure hope she gets selected. Her father is over there watching all these races.

BTW, sjjohnston, thanks for going to all the work of posting the analyses. It really helps me keep track of who's where.
post #14 of 32
Stieglers 10th was in fact very impressive. Too bad about having only four slots since both Stiegler and Schleper belong there. Maybe the Americans could get all four of the Norwegian slots. As of today, no women has met Norway's Olympic criteria in any alpine event. I am partial to youth and believe that Stiegler deserves the fourth spot. Again thank you to sjjohnston for the update and the very elaborate compilation.
post #15 of 32
Thread Starter 

Update (possible spoilers)

After this weekend's races

Men's GS (final: no races left in selection period)
Miller(3) Rahlves(3) Schlopy(10) Spencer(50%)
Guess (unchanged): Miller Rahlves Schlopy Ligety
Left out: Spencer, Cochran, Rothrock, Knight
Note: Miller, Rahlves and Schlopy are still the automatics, and also the three obvious entrants. The Skiracing website has a little article about the coaches agonizing over the fourth spot. It still seems likely (to Cochran, among others) that it will be Ligety.

Men's SL (3 races left)
Currently: Ligety(3)
W/in 1: Nobody
Guess (unchanged): Ligety Cochran Miller Rothrock
Left out: Knight McDonald Schlopy Nyman
Note: Today's race didn't change much, except to absolutely solidify Ligety as the top selection (as if it were in doubt). Now there are 3 to go, but the rest is still pretty unknown. If the selection were done today, Ligety and Cochran would still be the two automatics (based on WC discipline points) -- Cochran still beats out Rothrock by a single point.

Women's SL (final: no races left in selection period)
Koznick(10) Kildow(10) Mancuso(20) Stiegler(20) Schleper(50%)
Guess (unchanged): Koznick Kildow Mancuso Stiegler
Left out: Schleper Richardson Ross Kelley
Note: The results of the last race basically eliminated any possibility that the previous standings would be significantly reshuffeled. Kildow and Stiegler both met a higher criterion than they had previously, but the automatics are still Koznick, Kildow and Mancuso (though Stiegler and Mancuso both met the same criterion, Mancuso's lowest FIS-point result is lower than Stiegler's).
post #16 of 32
Thread Starter 
They've now apparently finally thrown in the towel and cancelled the women's GS scheduled for Maribor last Saturday, and originally postponed to today. Unless they somehow make it up by the 25th (pretty tough, as there's already a full schedule), that means there are no more women's GS races left in the selection period, so:

Women's GS (final: no races left)
Mancuso(30) Koznick(30)
Guess (unchanged): Mancuso Koznick Kildow Stiegler
Left out: Schleper Mielke Kelley Ross Richardson Cook Ludlow Lalive Clark
Note: Only Mancuso and Koznick have met any qualifying criterion, with three top 30s (12th/14th/21st and 16th/17th/24th/25th, respectively). As result (at least as I read it), those two are automatic, and the other two spots are both the coaches' discretion.

The only other US woman with even a single top 30 is Kildow (24th). Somewhat oddly, Kildow seems to be much better in both speed events and slalom than GS, at least this year. Theymight have her skip the Olympic GS so she's better trained for the other events, as she's likely to race all of them. However, the GS is the last women's event of the Olympics, so rest for the other events isn't an issue. It also may turn on how she does in the earlier events.

I suspect (really just guessing here) that the rest of the bench would be something like: Stiegler, Kelly, Ross, in something like that order. One will likely get a start -- two if Kildow doesn't race.

Maybe throw Ludlow in as another possibility. Although she's really a speed specialist, she can race GS. She just won an FIS race in Europe, and was the national champion two years ago.
post #17 of 32

Excellent Analysis - World Cup Standings Websites

Sjjohnston - Excellent analysis.

Please continue to post updates to this thread if possible.

Where do you go to find a detailed list by athlete of the athlete's place finishes preferably by discipline? Here are the pages that I have found helpful:

Overall FIS WC standings (Cup Standings page) http://www.fis-ski.com/uk/discipline...standings.html

Bode Miller detailed FIS WC place finish & points list http://www.fis-ski.com/uk/604/613.ht... Search=Select

To find any athlete's detailed FIS WC place finish & points list: On the Cup Standings page click on the athlete's name, then on Biography page choose Results from pull down menu click on Select button.

With Bode's 8th in SL at Wengen on 1/15/06 he finally earns a SL top 10.

Thanks for your help.
post #18 of 32
Thread Starter 
An update, reflecting this weekend's numerous results:

Men's DH (1 race left)
Currently qualified: Miller(3) Rahlves(3) Nyman(30) Macartney(30)
W/in 1: None
Guess (unchanged): Miller Rahlves Nyman Macartney
Left out: Sullivan Johnson
Note: With only the Hahnenkamm left, Sullivan or Johnson would have to finish on the podium in that race to qualify. That's extremely unlikely. At this point the three automatics are Miller and Rahlves (of course), and Macartney, who beats Nyman for lowest FIS-point margin by the narrowest of margins (13.65 for Macartney's 11th at Val Gardena vs. 13.73 for Nyman's 14th at Lake Louise). Nyman would seem to be the obvious discretionary choice (or Macartney, should Nyman manage lower points at Kitzbuhel).

Men's SL (2 races left)
Currently: Ligety(3)
W/in 1: Miller(10)
Guess (unchanged): Ligety Cochran Miller Rothrock
Left out: Knight McDonald Schlopy Nyman
Note: Once again, the results at Wengen didn't change the existing situation in a major way. Ligety remains both the obvious first choice and the only automatic on the selection criteria. With two races left, everyone other than Miller and Ligety would need either a podium in one of them (not highly likely) or a top-30 in both to qualify outright. If Ligety is the only racer to meet any qualifying criterion, the top two in WC discipline standings are automatic. That is now Ligety and Miller (285 and 32 points), followed by Cochran and Rothrock (16 and 15 points). Either Cochran or Rothrock could pass Bode with (for example) a single 14th place, or two 22nds, assuming Miller doesn't score. So ... there will likely be only two automics: Ligety and one of Miller, Cochran or Rothrock. These four seem the best discretionary choices in any event, though the coaches could go another way.

Women's DH (1 race left)
Currently: Kildow(3) Lalive(3) Cook(10) Mancuso(20) Clark(30)
W/in 1: Mancuso(10)
Guess (new): Kildow Lalive Cook Clark
Left out: Clark Mendes McCarty Ludlow
Note: The three automatics are Kildow, Lalive and Cook, and the only way it's going to change (absent a podium by someone else) is if Mancuso finishes in the top 10 at St. Moritz, beats Cook in that race, and bests Cook's lowest FIS-pt result (7.47 for 8th in the second race at Lake Louise). Mancuso's current low-pt result is just slightly higher: 8.09 for her 4th in the first race at Lake Louise. My guess is that won't happen. The discretionary choice would then come down to a tough one, between Mancuso and Clark. Advantage Mancuso: her "big-game" performance at last year's World Championships, the 4th at Lake Louise and her good results in DH at the end of last year. Advantage Clark: her long tenure with the team, desire to rest Mancuso who will be in plenty of other events, Clark's recent strong results in SG.

Women's SG (1 race left)
Currently: Kildow(10) Clark(10) Ludlow(10) Mancuso(20)
W/in 1: Mancuso(10) McCarty(30)
Guess (unchanged): Kildow Clark Mancuso Ludlow
Left out: Lalive McCarty Mendes Cook
Note: Ludlow dramatically scored a top 10 with her personal-best 7th this weekend, and jumped up two categories. Absent a podium by someone or a top-10 by Mancuso, Kildow, Clark and Ludlow are the automatics. Mancuso seems the best discretionary choice in any event (as Ludlow would be, should Mancuso beat her out).
post #19 of 32
Thread Starter 
Updated for today's SG results at Kitzbuhel and St. Moritz:

Men's SG (final: no races left)
Rahlves(3) Miller(50%) Nyman(50%)
Guess (unchanged): Rahlves Miller Nyman Macartney
Left out: Johnson, Sullivan
Note: Today's race completes a somewhat lackluster pre-Olympic semi-season for the Americans (with the exception of Rahlves). He is automatic for his podium (3rd) at Lake Louise. His other results (chronologically) are all solid: 5th, 11th, 6th. Miller and Nyman sneak in by meeting the lowest selection criterion: 50% in the top 30. Since there were only four races, Miller's 18th & 8th (failed to finish other two races), and Nyman's 25th and 18th (also 38th and 42nd) are sufficient to qualify for the team. They're the only three to qualify, so all three should be automatic. I still see Macartney as the likely fourth choice, primarily on the strength of his 7th in the Val Gardena SG (as well as 11th in the DH that followed it). The coaches, of course, may see things differently.

Women's SG (final: no races left)
Kildow(10) Clark(10) Ludlow(10) Mancuso(20) Mendes (50%)
Guess (unchanged): Kildow Clark Ludlow Mancuso
Left out: Lalive McCarty Mendes Cook
Note: Today's results at St. Moritz didn't change much, primarily because nobody except for Ludlow and Mendes finished. Kildow, Clark and Ludlow remain the automatics, each with at least two top 10s (Kildow: 6-7-4-43-DNF; Clark: 7-5-8-4-DNF; Ludlow: 10-20-21-7-12). Mancuso also met a lower selection criterion with three top 20s (14-31-7-13-DNF), and Mendes, by sneaking into the top 30 in the second SG she has started this year, met the 50% criterion. As I read it, the qualification criteria are only determinative in picking the three automatics, and the fourth, discretionary, choice can be based on any number of factors. Mancuso would seem to be the obvious fourth choice, though.
post #20 of 32
Thanks for being so diligent.
post #21 of 32

We are in need of an update based on todays DH tat Kitz!!! I am interested to see how Marco's impressive finish will "stir" things up! Looking forward to your opinion.
post #22 of 32
Thanks for your efforts. .
post #23 of 32
Thread Starter 
The latest:

Men's DH (final: no races left in selection period)
Miller(3) Rahlves(3) Macartney(30) Nyman(30)
Guess (new): Miller Rahlves Macartney Sullivan
Left out: Nyman Johnson
Note: The Hahnenkamm didn't change anything on the selection criteria, but I'm thinking it may have on the discretionary choice. The three automatics remain Miller, Rahlves and Macartney, who (as before) beats Nyman for lowest FIS-point result by the narrowest of margins (13.65 for Macartney's 11th at Val Gardena vs. 13.73 for Nyman's 14th at Lake Louise). Sullivan's strong finish in the "Super Bowl" of downhills doesn't boost him up to meet any selection criteria: he winds up with two top 20s (short of 3). The fourth spot, though, is in the coaches' discretion, without regard to the selection criteria; or, more accurately, with that only being among the many things the coaches can take into account. On Sullivan's side: (i) trend (him: 39-DNF-50-37-36-16-14 vs. Nyman: 14-23-35-36-26-DNF-26); (ii) reason for trend (return from injuries); (iii) big race success (the Hahnenkamm and the Lauberhorn, compared to Lake Louise? Come on); (iv) two top 20s vs. Nyman's one; (v) Nyman's already in the Super G (it looks like).

Women's DH (final: no races left in selection period)
Kildow(3) Lalive(3) Cook(10) Mancuso(20) Clark(30)
Guess (unchanged): Kildow Lalive Cook Clark
Left out: Mancuso Mendes McCarty Ludlow
Note: Nobody did much very exciting at St. Moritz. The automatics are Kildow, Lalive and Cook. The discretionary choice is a tough one, between Mancuso and Clark. Clark presumably didn't help her chances by coming in 58th today; but Mancuso wasn't exactly stunning in 32nd. Mendes' 19th-place finish perhaps helps her cause (she is the current National Champion after all), but her earlier results aren't too exciting: 49-DNF-40-DNF. The automatics don't exactly seem to be peaking for the Olympics. Their DH seasons, chronologically: Kildow (5-1-1-9-18-17), Lalive (39-48-2-42-33-60), Cook (10-8-30-34-36-53).
post #24 of 32
Thread Starter 
Men's SL (1 race left)
Currently: Ligety(3)
W/in 1: Miller(10/20/30) Knight (20/30)
Guess (new): Ligety Miller Knight Rothrock
Left out: Cochran McDonald Schlopy Nyman
Note: The problem in selecting four in this event isn't too many proven performers, but not enough. For whatever reason, the slalom group (with one very obvious exception) hasn't produced a ton of results. Ligety has become one of the better and more consistent slalom racers in the world (his finishes: 8-6-3-2-5-6). Five other Americans have raced in all (or all but one) of the season's six slaloms, but they've only qualified for and finished the second run 8 times in those 29 starts: Miller (8th & 18th), Knight (17th & 20th), Rothrock (16th & 26th), Cochran (15th) and Schlopy (24th).

There's one race left on the 24th (the day before the announcement of the team). So far as the objective criteria go:
- If it were done today, the automatics would be Ligety and Miller based on WC discipline points (325 for Ligety, 45 for Miller), and there would be two discretionary choices.
- If two (or three, or more) people meet the selection criteria, up to three of them will be automatic. Ligety, of course, is the only one who has so far. Additional possibilities in the one remaining race:
* Miller top 30 (pretty good chance)
* Knight top 30 (pretty good chance)
* Anybody podium (not likely)
* Someone who's only raced in one or fewer races top 30 (only real possibility is Paul McDonald, and I think he's not racing due to injury)

I think Miller is a given, whether he qualifies or not, so the remaining two spots go to two of the remaining candidates who really are: Knight, Rothrock, Cochran and Schlopy. Knight may qualify, and seems like the best discretionary choice at this point. Schlopy is the least likely. Rothrock and Cochran seem pretty close, but I guess Rothrock has a small edge based on results.
post #25 of 32
Thread Starter 
The combined, and some additional thoughts:

Men's and Women's Combined
This is sort of an afterthought in the criteria, which say the two racers "with the highest single World Cup point results during the selection period in the World Cup Combined" shall be selected, and additional spots will be filled "(if at all)" at the coaches' discretion. The first part is sort of an elaborate way of saying "best place" (but not counting people who are more than 8% off the best time, since they score no WC points).

The two best (men and women) are:
m Miller (2nd Kitzbuhel* combined, also 3rd Val d'Isere super combined)
m Nyman (6th Kitzbuhel)
w Kildow (3rd St. Moritz super combined ... the only women's combined there's been)
w Mancuso (9th St. Moritz)

These are also the only racers who have raced both DH and SL on the World Cup this season (plus Ligety, who entered one DH).

The others to score in a WC combined have been Ligety (10th Val d'Isere super combined) and Macartney (21st Val d'Isere) and, on the women's side, Richardson (25th St. Moritz). The other US entrants in the women's super combined were Lalive, Cook and Stiegler. Among the men, they've also entered Johnson and Sullivan in a combined (and also Rahlves, though I think he just runs the DH portion for additional training).

So ... for the entrants, put down:
- Miller + Nyman + possibly up to two more, most likely Ligety and Macartney.
- Kildow + Mancuso + possibly up to two more picked somehow from Richardson, Lalive, Cook and Stiegler. Richardson may not be in the pool, though, since she may not be on the team. The others are all likely racing some other event.

*The men's Kitzbuhel combined wasn't separate runs, but combined times from the main downhill and slalom, so there weren't a lot of competitors, since not very many racers compete in both events.

Additional thoughts
The selection rules, as written, seem to be pretty hard-and-fast. Nonetheless, I suppose it's possible that they'll interpret or finesse them somewhat. We'll see.

I believe that they won't actually have to finalize the starters event-by-event until just before the event happens. They can name up to 14 racers of each gender (but not more than 22 total) to the Olympic team. They may fill the roster out a bit, and keep their options open on the discretionary selections until the games start. That also allows them to take results during the games themselves into account for later events. For example, if (say) Stacey Cook won the downhill, maybe they'd slide her in as the discretionary choice in the Super G in place of Mancuso. Or whatever. It also provides backup in case of injuries.

A little chart (caps are automatics, lower case discretionary ... and I'm making a guess about the results in the last men's slalom)

Cochran (additional)

Mendes (additional)
Schleper (additional)
post #26 of 32
Thread Starter 

Last Slalom - Spoilers

The first run is still going on at Schladming, but it doesn't look like anything will change significantly.

Knight is hanging on for a possible second run (i.e. top-30 result, if he finishes the second run), which would qualify him automatically for the Olympic slalom ... but he's just hanging on, in 28th with 25 racers to go (25 low-seeded racers, true, he needs to beat all but two of them).

Cochran likely will qualify for the second run.

Everyone else is out, except Schlopy, who starts 78th.

Ligety had the fastest first run, by a healthy margin of over a half-second, but was disqualified after finishing.
post #27 of 32
Thread Starter 
Knight squeaks into the second run by about as narrow a margin as is possible: 30th place, .05 seconds ahead of 31st.

So ... if he finishes the second run, he's the second automatic qualifier (three top 30s), behind Ligety: as I guessed in my little chart above. Miller will be one discretionary choice, and either Cochran or Rothrock the other. Cochran, with a decent finish today, presumably helps his case over Rothrock ... of course the coaches have lots of other information we don't (like timed training runs) to take into consideration.
post #28 of 32
Thread Starter 

More Schladming Spoilers

Knight not only finished the second run, but managed to move up a good bit, to 19th place. He laid down the 9th-fastest second run ... 4th fastest on the second half of the run. He had the opportunity to run a perfectly clean course, which was set by one of the US coaches to boot, and did well. It's a bit surprising that he skied that aggressively in the second run, since a mere finish would automatically qualify him for the Olympic team, and a crash would not. Maybe the coaches let him know he would be a discretionary selection anyway. With (now) three top-20s in the last four races, he's earned it.
post #29 of 32
Thread Starter 
The actual final team differs a little from my prediction. The announcement is just team members, not events. By the number of racers, they seem to have limited it to those who they're planning to enter, though

yes Miller
yes Rahlves
yes Macartney
yes Sullivan
yes Nyman
yes Schlopy
yes Ligety
yes Knight
yes Cochran
NO Rothrock - Apparently, they're going with Cochran in one of the discretionary slalom slots (along with Bode)

yes Kildow
yes Lalive
yes Cook
yes Clark
yes Ludlow
yes Mancuso
yes Koznick
yes Stiegler
yes Schleper - I had her as an additional name. It looks like they may run her in the slalom, or the GS, either of which seems odd.
ADD Richardson - GS? She has no top 30 finishes this year, but only two racers do. Perhaps combined also.
NO Mendes - I had her as an additional name, though she'd be an unlikely starter in DH or SG.
post #30 of 32
Thread Starter 
Stiegler, Schleper and Richardson are all best-at-slalom-some-GS racers. It looks like there are exactly three discretionary slots in the technical events (two in GS, one in slalom). Unless one or two (Richardson and Stiegler?) are only racing the combined, they'd have to leave Kildow out of the GS, which seems odd. Or have someone give up an automatic spot.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Skiing Discussion