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Extended Winter Forecast

post #1 of 7
Thread Starter 
Winter Forecast


STATE COLLEGE, PA, November 16, 2005--AccuWeather today released its 30-day and 90-day temperature and precipitation forecast for the period beginning December 1. While much of the western U.S. will experience above-normal temperatures during the upcoming one- to three-month period, the Northeast U.S., heavily reliant on heating oil, faces a colder-than-normal winter. This will place further strain on consumers who are already wrestling with the higher energy prices that followed this year

National 30-Day Outlook
-A dip in the upper-level steering currents will develop over the Mississippi Valley during much of December, generating an active winter storm track from the southern Plains to New England. Along this track, precipitation will be near to above normal.
-South Florida and California will have above-normal temperatures during December.
-The Southeast and the Middle Atlantic regions will experience near-normal temperatures, as will a broad region of the U.S. that stretches from the Pacific Northwest, southeast to Texas.
-The region from the central and northern Plains to New England will be colder than normal during December. Much of the precipitation that falls in this region will be in the form of snow or ice.
-Higher levels of precipitation over relatively warm waters will create more lake-effect snow than usual in the Great Lakes region.
-The Pacific Northwest should have near-normal precipitation in December, but the remainder of the western states, as well as the Rockies and the western Plains, will likely have below-normal precipitation.


National 90-Day Outlook
-December through February will be colder than normal over the eastern third of the nation. The only exception will be South Florida, which will experience near-normal temperatures.
-Much of the western half of the nation will be warmer than normal during the next 90 days, but Utah, southern Idaho and Nevada will experience near-normal temperatures.
-Precipitation will be above normal from the eastern Great Lakes to northern New England, and near normal from southern New England and the Middle Atlantic region to the central Gulf Coast.
-The Southeast coast will be drier than normal in the 90-day period, as will much of the western United States. Only the region from the Pacific Northwest to western Montana will have near-normal precipitation.
-This winter will likely be quite snowy from the Great Lakes to New England, where temperatures will be below normal and precipitation near to above normal.
-A developing drought in the southern Plains is likely to worsen this winter.
post #2 of 7
As much as I am a weather junkie, I put ZERO stock in Accuweather. They provide the most worthless 15 day forecasts in the biz. Their ultra long range are not any better. Use NOAA's long range planner for any sort of conjecture. Did you know that any of these 30 - 90 day forecasts are based purely on probability? There isn't a forecast ensemble yet in the world that provide modeling past 14 days, and even those are very low on accuracy.

Powdr
post #3 of 7
Statistically, the wooly catapillar is as accurate as these forecasts.
post #4 of 7
I base my trust in whether my Siberians lose their coats in December or hold onto them.
post #5 of 7
Sounds bout right to me at least for the PNW.
post #6 of 7
So, what's this NOAA mob saying?
post #7 of 7
The NOAA forecasts are called long-lead. They're a bit better than climo but still have lots of error built in. If you've ever looked at the NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts, you'll understand. They can be very close as long as the models are picking up trends correctly. But they can also be dead wrong.

The .5 D,J,F forecast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off01_temp.gif

precip (no guidance basically) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off01_prcp.gif

For J, F, M
Temp
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off02_temp.gif

precip is basically a guess.

For the homepage, go to: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...ictions/90day/

I used to manage relationships with weather vendors and they take a lot of crap for forecasts but unfortuntately they're working with minimal data. If we had automated weather stations with profilers (measure wind, temp, etc. at different levels of the atmosphere) over the whole earth every 20 miles or so, forecast accuracy would be unbelievable. Still, statistically their forecasts have improved dramatically over the past 30 years...but it can be frustrating.

They say warmer than normal for about the west half of the U.S. btw.
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