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Cross Your Fingers

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
MRF & GFS Models show a big 'un affecting the West on or about 11/26/05. Blocking ridge gives way to a significant Pacific Low. Current models show the system taking aim at the CA/OR border, then heading SE towards Tahoe, then the Wasatch. Way too early to tell on storm strenght (and actual storm track), but these kind of systems generally give maximum punch to the Tahoe & Utah areas. Also, memory seems to recall 1st storms after a blocking pattern can pack a considerable punch. Keeping fingers crossed for the next 10 days. In the mean time I will be hiking for turn on the meager snow pack we already have.

Powdr
post #2 of 16
I know where to access the GFS models. Where are you accessing the MRF models? Thanks
post #3 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maui Steve
I know where to access the GFS models. Where are you accessing the MRF models? Thanks
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/mo..._sfc_loop.html
post #4 of 16
well, it should hit; as i cancelled my tahoe trip pre-turkey day trip last nite.(yes, i have already sunk to reverse psychology to induce a snow storm).
post #5 of 16
in the past 20 yrs, how many turkey days have been without lift skiing in the cottonwood?
post #6 of 16
Well another clue is that the big county plow has just been staged up our road. Wood has been stacked, snow tires installed, season passes purchased and picked-up, snow shovels at the ready. Something's coming :
post #7 of 16
Thread Starter 
This morning's GFS & MRF show the 11/27 system shredding apart (sacrificial lamb) as it hits the high pressure, then the following systems, starting on 11/30 coming through with what looks like continued activity for some time through the 1st week of December. Little Cottonwood resorts may not be open until 1st week of December, (current 30" base too slim) unless they open a run or two that's been augmented w/ snowmaking.

Powdr
post #8 of 16
Looks like Solitude did open today, PCMR opens Weds, Snowbird Thurs and Alta on Friday. All will have fairly limited terrain, but having gotten up to about 9000 the other day I really think that it will only take one or two decent impulses to get a lot of terrain open - let's keep our fingers crossed and do our snow dances!
post #9 of 16
Thread Starter 
I agree that all it will take is 1 or 2 more storms, but dang it's boney out there. My poles are sinking only 2-3' deep at the 9K' level, which is not much to work with. Even if they manage to open, the Cottonwoods will be pretty meager since it won't be on anything that falls this week, and they have VERY limited SM.


Powdr
post #10 of 16
The general chatter from weather forecasters calls for a change beginnin this weekend. The latest GFS is the earliest and most positive on precip.
post #11 of 16
What do weather forecasters know. Meanwhile HomeDepot has a hundred, or so, snow blowers ready to go. Those guys don't mess around (except when they build aquariums).
post #12 of 16
Day 12 @ Loveland Sunday, it was fun! (Demo Days) the Creek is a little dry (Wolf Creek) .
Like they say in the Navy, "it only takes one Storm!"
post #13 of 16
Sorry but I'm a noob to skiing outside the midwest, so could someone explain the different weather models (GFS & MRF), where to get them and how to read them.
post #14 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by JamminSki
Sorry but I'm a noob to skiing outside the midwest, so could someone explain the different weather models (GFS & MRF), where to get them and how to read them.
GFS is one of the many models the REAL (NOAA) weather folks use to predict 10-14 days out. Others are MRF (Medium Range Forecast), UKMET (European Model), ETA, NAM (North American Model) RUC (Rapid Update Cycle), and a few others. You can find these models @:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/forecast/models.php

Beware: they are difficult to understand. Here's a simplified primer:

- Start with the SL Pressure (Surface Level) and Precipitation loops. You will get an idea of what weather systems will come through your area.

- Then go to the 700mb loops, which will give you mid level atmospheric temperatures. This will tell you how cold the system is. Hint: it need to be -4 deg C or colder for snow at the ground level (at least in the Rockies). Anything warmer is generally rain.

Remember that there can be a huge difference from model to model, so you have to go with the one that is currently progging out the most accurate results. You can get a read on that by 1) looking at recent predictions for each model, or 2) read the discussion section for your local NOAA site and see what the weathermen are currently prefering. In the case of this week's activity, SLC NOAA likes the GFS model, as do I since it has been the most accurate in the last month.

Powdr
post #15 of 16
Great, thanx for the simplified explanation
post #16 of 16
finally! it snowed in NM. not a lot, but better than it's been for sure! maybe winter will come after all...
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