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What kind of winter will the east have???

post #1 of 19
Thread Starter 
Last year in my opinion was pretty bad my favourite ski resort only received about 200inches total when usually it is more like 300 inches???

ANY INSIDE INFO ON THIS YEAR???? COMON I KNOW SOME OF YOU HERE ARE EASTERN SKIERS AND BOARDERS SPEAK UP!!!!!!! how was vermont and newyork last year??????
post #2 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by staffpro
Last year in my opinion was pretty bad my favourite ski resort only received about 200inches total when usually it is more like 300 inches???

ANY INSIDE INFO ON THIS YEAR???? COMON I KNOW SOME OF YOU HERE ARE EASTERN SKIERS AND BOARDERS SPEAK UP!!!!!!! how was vermont and newyork last year??????
The beginning of the season last year was horrible. December went from bad to worse, culminating in several niar events. January continued this trend of horrible weather with extreme cold but very little snow. February, however, saved the season...we began getting dumped on once, twice, three times a week for the remainder of the winter season. Spring blew in like a lamb and blessed us with (I'm trying to remember here), 6, maybe 7, maybe even more weekends of bluebird skies and mild temps.

All in all, last season wasn't half bad weather-wise.
post #3 of 19
what iskitoofast4you said. the beggining sucked but halfway through it was great. Seen much better winters, but pray for this year. So far so good. I personally think we are gonna get rocked. But if not I will just have to go where the snow is puking. As a passionate skier that is my duty and the wife understands it He who seeks shall find!
post #4 of 19
Thread Starter 
ye i heard sumwhere on t.v that since the east had a very warm summer we will have nice dumpage of white stuff on us in the winter since ther wil be more moisture, makes sense????
post #5 of 19
Mild says the woolly bear caterpillar:

http://wbal.com/stories/templates/ne...rticleid=36583
post #6 of 19
The only problem with that study is the +/- 99% margin of error :
post #7 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by iskitoofast4u
The only problem with that study is the +/- 99% margin of error :
That's right , as would any speculation as to how the flakes will fly. When the weatherman can correctly predict the weather better than tomorrow, then I might look at a 2 to 5 month outlook. Otherwise were just blowin cold smoke, not yet anyway
post #8 of 19
Thread Starter 
well the thing i saw on tv was for like the candian side like blue mountain, treblant, and le massif i dunno how vermnt and those places will be like and i dont know where maryland is.
post #9 of 19
What kind of winter will the East have? It will have whatever kind we ski - or, in other words, we'll ski whatever kind we have. Then we'll go west, anyway.
post #10 of 19
OK, so I get really obsessed with the weather this time of year, and spend a lot of time on weather boards and reading weather discussions.

The thing with seasonal outlooks is that they are very difficult and prone to error, that is why the long term NOAA predictions are all complete B.S. like 75% of the country is 'equal chance' of everything. You can predict that the winter will be 'cold', but is it going to be arctic cold for a few weeks in January and in the 40s in december, which averages to 'cold' or just plain cold the whole time?

I find the one to two month predictions by weather experts to be more accurate, although obviously very qualitative. Meteorologists make thes predictions based on interpretation of a number of atmospheric trends like the NAO, the QBO, seasurface temps, el nino and la nina conditions, and many other 'trends' that historically correlate to specific conditions. I'm not an expert on this but there are a number of oscillating atmospheric conditions that follow rough sinusoidal patterns, and meteorologists can look at a number of them, see the pattern, ie the NAO is trending negative and the QBO is trending positive and then compare that to past years with similar trends and from that predict future conditions on the scale of 1-2 months.

Basically, it seems that November is going to continute to be warm, and near the end of the month it looks like we will shift back to cooler temps and we might have a decent december unlike past years.


Again, this is based on current analysis of the aforementioned 'trends' This could also mean that near the end of november it will get 'cooler' and then warm up again in December.

As for the longer range conditions, basically your entire winter weather pattern is controlled by the Jetstream. Generally, there will either be a trough in the east with a ridge in the west or vice versa. Eastern troughing gives cold temps in the east and warm temps out west. The position of the Jetstream also relates to what people call the "Pineapple Express" and can greatly influence snow totals as everyone in the PNW now knows.

The pattern of the Jetstream is what is influenced by the trends I discussed earlier, and is what allows people to predict the cooling trend in late november, this basically means a trough in the east. For the east to have long-term cold, this trough has to stick around, which doesn't always happen.

You have to remember that the Jetstream circles the globe, and is thus influenced by changes in Asia (upstream) and Europe (downstream). Upstream changes, such as the pattern of recent Typhoons in asia, can help predict 'downstream' changes here in the states. As well, downstream changes, mostly over the atlantic, can predict upstream changes here in the states. The most important upstream change is 'blocking' that occurs when a high pressure system sits over greenland, and 'blocks' the jetstream from changing out of an eastern trough.

On another note, One of the good things about this fall is that we have already had a decent outbreak of cold by late october, and significant snowfall in the east. We may get another storm next week, without the dumping of the last storm, but these early season cold 'outbreaks' are good in my opinion and sorely missed in past seasons with mild decembers.

Wow, that got to be a very long post. Remember I'm not an expert and this is just a huge summary of some of the things I've learned obsessing over the weather.

try: http://www.easternuswx.com
http://www.theweatherservice.com/forums/index.php
http://www.accuweather.com

accuweather has great 'professional' content, including in depth articles and discussions about medium to long term outlooks by notables such as Joe Bastardi.
post #11 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proneax
Eastern troughing gives cold temps in the east and warm temps out west. The position of the Jetstream also relates to what people call the "Pineapple Express" and can greatly influence snow totals as everyone in the PNW now knows.

The pattern of the Jetstream is what is influenced by the trends I discussed earlier, and is what allows people to predict the cooling trend in late november, this basically means a trough in the east. For the east to have long-term cold, this trough has to stick around, which doesn't always happen. .
Hey, interesting post! Here's hoping for an eastern trough that gets parked and traffic jammed
post #12 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Proneax
try: http://www.easternuswx.com
http://www.theweatherservice.com/forums/index.php
http://www.accuweather.com

accuweather has great 'professional' content, including in depth articles and discussions about medium to long term outlooks by notables such as Joe Bastardi.
AccuWeather may have good profesional content (and I think you have it pay for that), but their forecasts, most notably their hour-by-hour forecasts for a specific location, are awful. I also see lots of people who frequent the forums in www.easternuswx.com make the same comments about their accuracy, ... I thought it was just me.
post #13 of 19
Predict, predict, predict. What's the point? Whatever snow is there is what we'll ski - or not, if it's too warm to hold even manufactured snow.

Just wait! What will be - will be.
post #14 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by oboe
or not, if it's too warm to hold even manufactured snow.
A comment like that would quickly land you in kangaroo court at my mountain, Oboe...SSHHHHHH with the negative thoughts!
post #15 of 19
Here's what it'll be: a good dump followed by a thaw - over and over again. Forcast for snow will be rain then snow and way less than predicted. February will be weak and March will be ok. All in all - if ya go, the skiing will be better than you expected it to be.
post #16 of 19
Do you expect God to answer on this forum? Obviously many think that they have the knowledge of God here when you consider all those who have answered. Only God might know enough about what the winter will be like in the Northeast to answer that question. So if you are serious, try getting down on your knees and praying to God.
post #17 of 19
It will be what it will be.
post #18 of 19
the darkest days are around Christmas. Gradually increasing afternoon light as you move into the New Year. Beer on the porch can be quite pleasent in the late afternoon once you get past mid March.

Enjoy every minute of whatever you get.
post #19 of 19
As much as I don't like cold weather, I love skiing. I am hoping we get plenty of natural snow. I don't particulary like snow blowers stinging my skin, but I will take what I can get. Whatever it is, I will be out on the slopes.
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