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Long range winter forecast?

post #1 of 14
Thread Starter 
I was wondering if anyone knows some good sources for long range winter forecasts?

Specifically I'm looking at northern and eastern Arizona. Last year was great with tons of snow - year before that my hill was only open four days .

Just wondering if I should get a season pass and wanted to research first.

Thanks

Dave
post #2 of 14
flip a coin
post #3 of 14
noaa.org aka the national weather service
post #4 of 14
Below freezing and snow at times
post #5 of 14
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...off_index.html

Looks like above average temp (natch )). Below average precip in AZ, elsewhere normal.
post #6 of 14
Are you really going off the long-range winter forecast for a decision on a ski pass? They can't even get next week's weather right- how are they supposed to know what's going to happen in February?
post #7 of 14
one of my finest ski days ever- about 1980. Living near Boston at the time, had plans to go to Sugarloaf for the weekend. All week the forcast is rain friday night and Saturday - all the way to the Canadian border. Just about blew it off, but in the end I was the only one of 10 friends to make the pilgrammage. Rain the entire way up, but very, very little traffic. Went to sleep with the sound of hard rain on the tin roof-

you know what we found Sat morning- lots, and lots of snow- snowed all day and it was just like a weekday- clean shots after every lift ride. 20 some oss years later I can still feel how dry it was and the glorious shot from the gondi building stright down through the scrub trees up top-

the point- as someone said above- buy the damned pass and go make turns every chance you get.

b/t/w your act of buying the pass helps the ski area stay open so it will be there for you during those great snow winters-
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post #8 of 14
Some of the best skiing I had @ whistler was this last season which was one of the worst snowfalls on record. Winter didn't look like it was going to ever come, but it came back with a vengence in Mar/Apr. As Oldtimer says, make the commitment and forget about the forecasts. You'll be surprised how things turn out despite the forecasts
post #9 of 14
Wizard, couldn't agree more ... last season was my 3rd in Whistler ... in April I was skiing freshies with an instructor friend. He had been there for many years and we were finding new lines he had never skied before. To me that is part of the fun of when the conditions are less than ideal ... I find all sorts of stuff I didn't know existed and make that extra effort. I remember several runs in particular down Diamond Bowl that were just simply amazing ... the snow was up to our thighs at some points & there were very few people about. February may have sucked, but boy did April make up for it in a big way
post #10 of 14

Natural clues

NOAA, Weather channel, and all those fancy college kid things are correct just about half the time. I have found more trustworthy time proven methods like the harvest from the south hickory tree (5 gallons of husked nuts already and it isn't even Oct 1st), the black on a wooly bear caerpillar, and here .
post #11 of 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stache
and here
Eeek! I hope ye olde almanac is wrong this time..
post #12 of 14
Hey, it calls for cold, and we have a newly expanded snowmaking lake.
post #13 of 14
Forecasts more than a week or two out are worthless, except for STRONG El Nino and La Nina, neither of which applies this year.

Season pass decisions should be based on long-term history, and Arizona Snowbowl's is way too volatile. You don't want to be stuck with the 4-day 2001-02 season.
post #14 of 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker
Forecasts more than a week or two out are worthless, except for STRONG El Nino and La Nina, neither of which applies this year.

Season pass decisions should be based on long-term history, and Arizona Snowbowl's is way too volatile. You don't want to be stuck with the 4-day 2001-02 season.
My youngest son went to grad school at NAU for 5 years and had some great seasons and some where the area did not open (and just barely) until Feb. Real crapshoot but what a great place to live otherwise.

More reliable skiing is not that far away. Maybe the long term drought that the SW has experienced in recent years will end although the climate record shows it to run in very long cycles from 10 to 50 or more years.

My son has a possible job offer in Flagstaff and might move back there in the future. Maybe I will retire then when he moves.
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