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PNW Weather Forecast? El Nino or La Nina

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
Anyone heard any long-term weather pattern forecasts (guesses) for the PNW Winter season?

-D
post #2 of 16
I've been thinking about this lately. With the flooding in Europe, big snow in the southern hemishere and up here the jet stream is all over the map, something's going on. I used to have a link to surface sea temperature anomolies but can't find it anymore. I bet we read about one or the other soon though.
post #3 of 16
Try this!

Doesn't look like anything definitive yet but there is a bit of action.
post #4 of 16
This is off of Larry Schick's web site. Take it for whatever it's worth. He said very similar things during the last pre-season, so I figure it means he doesn't know what's going to happen.

"Thinking about next season, 2005-2006? El Nino is gone and a neutral pattern is developing. Neutral is good, because even an average season in the Pacific Northwest is great by most people's standards. I am optimistic about next season, last season was a freak."
post #5 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by pheft
This is off of Larry Schick's web site. Take it for whatever it's worth. He said very similar things during the last pre-season, so I figure it means he doesn't know what's going to happen.

"Thinking about next season, 2005-2006? El Nino is gone and a neutral pattern is developing. Neutral is good, because even an average season in the Pacific Northwest is great by most people's standards. I am optimistic about next season, last season was a freak."
I'm buying what Larry's saying. Snow in August on the Cascades @ 6K and a Neutral Ocean temp. The Southern dominant weather pattern is gone and a NW Gulf of Ak pattern is returning. I am optimistic that PNW skiers may be sliding by Halloween .:
post #6 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by slider
I'm buying what Larry's saying. Snow in August on the Cascades @ 6K and a Neutral Ocean temp. The Southern dominant weather pattern is gone and a NW Gulf of Ak pattern is returning. I am optimistic that PNW skiers may be sliding by Halloween .:
Is there snow at 6K now in the North Cascades? Seems awfully early. Halloween would be great!
post #7 of 16
Weatherman called for Snow @ 6K for Sunday. BUT...it's looking doubtful right now.:
post #8 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by slider
Weatherman called for Snow @ 6K for Sunday. BUT...it's looking doubtful right now.:
Well, snow tomorrow isn't going to help much... but, yes, think about it... it's a few days to September, which means it really is going to be in-season soon.

David
post #9 of 16

Opps

A weak El Nino is building just like last year. We also have the same warm pool of water just north of Hawaii, also just like last year at this time. Patrol at my home hill is all ready saying repeat of last year. We wait and see!

PS: Old Indian Joe is telling our locals to buy extra wood!
post #10 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by mammothsnowman
A weak El Nino is building just like last year. We also have the same warm pool of water just north of Hawaii, also just like last year at this time. Patrol at my home hill is all ready saying repeat of last year. We wait and see!

PS: Old Indian Joe is telling our locals to buy extra wood!
Are you sure about that? I just looked at the NOAA site, and found this: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...enso_advisory/

says back to average and neutral el nino conditions. so, who knows....

Just saw that Scripps Inst. is showing a mild EN forming... so, some models say yes, some say nay. Wait and see.
post #11 of 16
tetsuma

Thanks for pointing out those wonderful charts. What the h@ll do they mean? You are supposed to pe a frekin scientist to figure that out!
post #12 of 16
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by paul jones
tetsuma

Thanks for pointing out those wonderful charts. What the h@ll do they mean? You are supposed to pe a frekin scientist to figure that out!
The charts aren/t great, I admit. But it's straightforward... higher than normal water temps in the pacific = el nino (I think). they've got 100s of bouys in the pacific that measure water temp -- they're putting them in the indian ocean now, following the tsunami, cuz I guess they measure wave height as well.

Anyway, i just want to have a good season this year. and looking at stupid maps, well that's a guy thing (so I've been told)
seeya
David
post #13 of 16

Some Smple Weather Links

Try these simple links at my web site.

http://www.mammothsnowman.com/mammot...her-links.html
post #14 of 16
Larry Schick recommends the following table as the most comprehensive measure of El Nino/La Nina: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus...MEI/table.html .

As of June/July it was still in mild El Nino (positive numbers) territory. His comment that last year was a freak is correct. Mild El Ninos are not that predictive. 1991-92 was below average in Sierra (though good in SoCal and Arizona) and 1986-87 sucked big time throughout California.
post #15 of 16
Woot! that's good news. That should mean a more normal weather pattern for the PNW. Normal being massive snowfalls Bring it on!
post #16 of 16
Wizard

Don't get too excited. These weather guy can get the weather for the weekend right. Half the $h!t they make up in their mind then convince themselves that know what they are talking about.

My forcasting is much more accurate. It'll be dumpin on New England for sure.
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