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Dryday.com forecast for Alta in Dec.

post #1 of 13
Thread Starter 
So I monitored this forecasting site last year while anticipating my trip to steamboat. I have to say that it was on target 70% of the time. So I decided to spend the 5.95 for the month of December in anticipation to my trip to Utah. I won't copy in the graph due to the copyright agreement I signed, but I do have to say if they are remotely correct, December should be a very, very good month.

Their forecast breaks down as follows for Alta, UT for December 2004:

Dec 1 - 7: Sunny early with increasing risk of precip later in the week.

Dec 8 - 16(My week ): Over 70% risk of precip the entire week . God I hope they are right.

Dec 17 - 24: Few days of sun in the middle of the week before the next storm cycle starts near the end of the week.

Dec 25 - 31: 60% risk of precip the entire week.

Its a pretty interesting site, I monitor the free 30 forecast last season and was surprised by how accurate it was. It certainaly was 100% accurate but when it predicted a stormy cycle there was generally somethiing happening during that period. They were right on exactly the week I was in Steamboat, they said precip early followed by sun and thats exactly what happened.

Anyway, I invested the 6 bucks and thought I would share it, since we are all hoping for a good snow year. Lets hope Dryday is correct!
post #2 of 13
Cool site. I bookmarked our area. Looking back at the past 30 days, they seemed to have been dead on in their forecasts for rain...let's hope they are as accurate for snow, unless all I see are yellow bars all winter.
post #3 of 13
Isn't using DryDay to predict precipitation an oxymoron?
post #4 of 13
Thread Starter 
depends how you look at it, believe it or not some people dont like snow and dread the thought of going outside in it. I don't know who these people are, but I am sure they will end up on Springer some day
post #5 of 13
30 day forward here in SVT---24 days rain! Either gray or black bars.

If this were January I'd be dancing in the snow covered street---but I still have some golf to play!

30 days back seems pretty close as I recall. all rain
post #6 of 13
Originally Posted by mrryde
I have to say that it was on target 70% of the time.
Thats doesn't seem very good considering that random seleciton would be right 50% of the time. Or here in Utah if you said it would not snow every single day of Winter you would be right about 70% of the time. :-D

Being a little flip, I'm sure there is more to it than that. Probabilities and weather forcasting makes a very interesting subject.
post #7 of 13
Thread Starter 
my 70% was based on black bars on their chart. so for every 10 days they said there was a high risk for precip it snowed 7. I guess the best way to put it was that they are suprisingly accruate with long term weather forecasting.

Based on that, I like my odds for a good early season trip...but all things considered, only time will tell
post #8 of 13
I am in SLC for 5 days from 12-16 to 12-21. In order that they have a decent base, how does November look on the dryday forecast?
post #9 of 13
Thread Starter 
i was too cheap to buy Nov. :
post #10 of 13
just a data point.

yahoo - says it will rain Friday and Saturday in Vail
DryDay says its going to be dry !!!
post #11 of 13
Thread Starter 
They dont revise forecasts, so they surmised a 20% chance of precip 18 months ago. Like I said before its pretty good at long term forecasts, but its not always right.
post #12 of 13
Anything/anyone who is forecasting beyond 48 hours with any measure of accuracy is akin to reading the farmers almanac. Predicting snow for Alta in December is easy. It will snow some, how much of a snowfall total that is forecast by anybody this week is a guess, gamble, scam. If you are made to feel good by spending $$$ for this forecast, then it was worth it, personally, I would have bought a 6-pack.
post #13 of 13
Thread Starter 
All it really did was make my ski jones worse. Man I need a drink, if I hade any money left I'd git me a 6 pack.
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