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2016-17 Colorado Weather Discussion - Page 51

post #1501 of 1592

HA!  Maybe the 3-7" over the next few days will help although it sounds like Luv is facing the wrong to get the higher amounts.  Fingers crossed for WP/MJ.

post #1502 of 1592

@NayBreak.  How's it looking in your opinion for next week's storm?  Still thinking of coming out to ski Abasin next Thursday thru Saturday.

post #1503 of 1592
Thread Starter 
Not really hearing anything for next week except potential around Tuesday. NOAA is saying 6-12" for the Friday storm for the higher elevation east facing slopes. That's a good description of Loveland, but I'm not sure where the easterly upslope comes from to favor those aspects. It's been so warm with fairly heavy melt that this storm should be a bit of a barometer of the pattern is getting active again.

Either way, coverage is still great up high, so if it were me, I'd be hoping for bluebird with mid-40's temps so you get this:



It's hard to over fanboy how good the basic groomed trail slush skiiing has been - fast, silky, soft, and not sticky. Off piste really needs a reset as the surface is carrying grit and too much pitted sun damage, so it goes from hard to a bit manky right away, except some higher aspects like this:



I'm not currently planning to storm ski, because I have doubts it will cover the reef. Sunday when is sunny and near 50 again? Absolutely. Plans may change at game time for Friday.
post #1504 of 1592
Quote:
Originally Posted by NayBreak View Post

Either way, coverage is still great up high, so if it were me, I'd be hoping for bluebird with mid-40's temps so you get this:



It's hard to over fanboy how good the basic groomed trail slush skiiing has been - fast, silky, soft, and not sticky.

 

That's what I was coming out hoping to ski.  But intellicast shows cloudy, cold temps, and snow next Wednesday thru Friday (April 26-28)and Joel on opensnow mentions potential for that time frame also.   How would the groomers be with a few inches on them?  Assuming it doesn't get immediately followed by warm temps and sun and turn to mash potatoes.  Typical wintertime, I'd be jumping at the chance for that forecast (and I know its a week away).  Just wondering in your opinion how it will ski on-piste with some new powder not turning to mash if it stays cloudy/cold?  And assuming it's not a 1 foot plus powder storm.

post #1505 of 1592
Thread Starter 
The only way the piste would be bad in that scenario would be if it softened, refroze, and then was cloudy and didn't soften - dust on crust.

Never say never, but that scenario is less likely as it gets warmer. Other than that, you have a forecast that has the storm track on again - the biggest issue there is potential low visibility. I'll ski it in flat light because I know the terrain, but that generally means staying lower - Pali is great in a storm, but for piste it's the few runs off Black Mountain Express.

Big picture: we're going 2-4 storms in a row followed immediately by really warm melt cycles. Looks like a decent reset now, so it's a roll of the dice for conditions on a particular day. Not sure when you need to commit, but by Friday morning the 7 day forecast should be more clear.

Luv right now...

post #1506 of 1592

I'm en-route to DEN for a work/ski trip and who cares, I'm going skiing in late April and I don't give a damn.

post #1507 of 1592
^^^Ata baby!
post #1508 of 1592

There seems to be snow at ABasin with their snow stake as well. Kinda curious how much ends up on the East Wall and how much falls down into Montezuma Bowl

post #1509 of 1592



WINTER PARK was pretty good yesterday.
post #1510 of 1592
post #1511 of 1592
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by NonNativeRado View Post

There seems to be snow at ABasin with their snow stake as well. Kinda curious how much ends up on the East Wall and how much falls down into Montezuma Bowl

Not enough to cover the reef...

However...

post #1512 of 1592

Headed up to A-Basin later today after I take care of some work down in Denver.  I assume today is going to be mostly groomers and dust on crust unless the sun stays out strong.

Friday is looking potentially interesting.

post #1513 of 1592

Looks like timing has moved up a few hours and amounts and elevation is still in flux.  .gov has changed snowfall to 2-4" for Winter Park itself but 3-7" or even 4-10" is possible up high.  I'm good with 4-10"  :)  I'm kind of surprised with the discrepancy between .gov and local Denver media.  Denver is still sticking with 3-7" but at 9,000'-10'000' or higher and .gov is down to 7,000' and mostly north of I70.

 

"Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains where 4 to 10 inches of snow will be possible by Friday morning. The heaviest amounts are expected to be north of I-70."
 

post #1514 of 1592
Thread Starter 
That "mostly north of I-70" is a typical forecast statement when they expect the northern foothills to be the focal point.

Yesterday both Loveland and Winter Park nicely over-performed with 4". These things hang over the Continental Divide in spring and at the resort focus often over produce.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Loveland and/or Winter Park do really well with the incoming. It's that's time of year where micro-climate convection can give those 3"/hour rates.

I'm starting to work my schedule to maybe hit a few hours...
post #1515 of 1592
Quote:
Originally Posted by NayBreak View Post

The only way the piste would be bad in that scenario would be if it softened, refroze, and then was cloudy and didn't soften - dust on crust.

Never say never, but that scenario is less likely as it gets warmer. Other than that, you have a forecast that has the storm track on again - the biggest issue there is potential low visibility. I'll ski it in flat light because I know the terrain, but that generally means staying lower - Pali is great in a storm, but for piste it's the few runs off Black Mountain Express.

Big picture: we're going 2-4 storms in a row followed immediately by really warm melt cycles. Looks like a decent reset now, so it's a roll of the dice for conditions on a particular day. Not sure when you need to commit, but by Friday morning the 7 day forecast should be more clear.

Luv right now...

Thanks for the info.  I've decided to delay a few days and come out on Saturday, April 29th for a whole week.  I'm leery of skiing Abasin in storm conditions as I've never been there, and it sounds like there is very good potential for significant snow Tues-Sat of next week.  So, I'll hit it the following week and take whatever the weather brings.  With a week there, I'll hopefully get a little of everything.  Never been skiing this late in the year, so I'm pumped to get the chance.  Decision made easier with $98 roundtrip tickets on Southwest from Nashville to Denver, cheap SUV weekly rental ($225), and cheap condo rental in River Run at Keystone. :)

post #1516 of 1592
Thread Starter 
^^^I think that's a good call. Loveland and A-Basin both favor the steep north facing advanced/expert terrain on storm days, and the forecast is "good" for next week smile.gif.
post #1517 of 1592

In usual confusion over what conditions would be, went to Loveland today, Thursday, with both groomer (80 waist) skis and powder/crud (waist 108) skis in the car.   Wow.  I switched to the latter skis fast, thank God.

 

Surprisingly bluebird and mares' tails whispy up high, presaging the coming evening storm, maybe.  No wind, even up high.  Just a bit colder than usual, but some nice soft new snow, seemingly.  I-70 was dry all the way, until the Pass turnoff.   

 

 

Down low, on Lift 1, 4, 6 and 8, things were from 3" heavy new on deep underneath crust, and soft refreshed groomers, to 4" heavy higher (that skied like 6" on top of crust that a wider ski never hit (but that a narrower ski hit a lot).   Mogul fields had some hard tops.  I hit sharks in the trees lower Lift 8 on my wider skis - ouch.   Bad edge burrs.

 

But then, all changed.   Lift 9 opened, ridge was great, tho with a few ridgeline sharks, and drops off that ridge were untouched, no sharks, little crust hit, just 4-5" heavy powder that skied like 6-8+", all morning long, into the afternoon.   My legs wore out before the unbroken first tracks did.   And I really mean unbroken, off ridge to the south.   (North ridge has been windblown bare in places.)

 

One of the best tho still modest days of the season, big grins on many faces.   Very few people.

 

I will go tomorrow also, albeit the road conditions and traffic will probably be worse.  

 

Modest hopes, but reason for them - any fresh snow this evening will fall on a very nice base, at least at the Luv.   Suggest a powder/crud ski, not just a powder ski, because this stuff will probably still be heavy, and cruddy lower down, if Lift 9 can even open early. (I sure hope so.)

 

Solly Rocker2 100s should do the trick nicely.  Or Enforcers, for that matter.  :)  (I was on Gotamas.)

post #1518 of 1592
Thread Starter 
^^^funny where the sleeper days come from (so many up high this season, yet again). The Ridge is so smooth in spots. Tomorrow will conceptually be excellent.

My burrs have burrs now, so I consider that a cancelling effect.
post #1519 of 1592
Quote:
Originally Posted by ski otter View Post   Suggest a powder/crud ski, not just a powder ski, because this stuff will probably still be heavy, and cruddy lower down, if Lift 9 can even open early. (I sure hope so.)

 

Solly Rocker2 100s should do the trick nicely.  Or Enforcers, for that matter.  :)  (I was on Gotamas.)

 

If everything works out I'm bringing the Z90's to Luv for the 1st time tomorrow.  It will be nice to try them there in this type of condition.  On to WP/MJ for the weekend.

post #1520 of 1592
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike78 View Post

If everything works out I'm bringing the Z90's to Luv for the 1st time tomorrow.  It will be nice to try them there in this type of condition.  On to WP/MJ for the weekend.

Might want to go wider biggrin.gif

post #1521 of 1592
Quote:
Originally Posted by NayBreak View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike78 View Post

If everything works out I'm bringing the Z90's to Luv for the 1st time tomorrow.  It will be nice to try them there in this type of condition.  On to WP/MJ for the weekend.


Might want to go wider biggrin.gif

NICE.

 

And from opensnow this AM about next week:

 

Then … then … winter will return next week! While I can’t provide many details, all models show the chance for snow each day from Monday (April 24) through Saturday (April 29). The European ensemble forecast, a collection of 51 versions of the European model, shows an average of 1.5-2.0 inches of precipitation during this time around Loveland (northern mountains), which could equate to 15-20 inches of snow.


Edited by bamaman - 4/21/17 at 7:57am
post #1522 of 1592
Quote:
Originally Posted by bamaman View Post
 

NICE.

 

And from opensnow this AM about next week:

 

Then … then … winter will return next week! While I can’t provide many details, all models show the chance for snow each day from Monday (April 24) through Saturday (April 29). The European ensemble forecast, a collection of 51 versions of the European model, shows an average of 1.5-2.0 inches of precipitation during this time around Loveland (northern mountains), which could equate to 15-20 inches of snow.

And, since the vast majority of skiers are done for the season, there will be only those diehards from the ski forums that will actually partake of the goods, right?  Lots of untracked pow for us?  :) 

post #1523 of 1592
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by breilly View Post

And, since the vast majority of skiers are done for the season, there will be only those diehards from the ski forums that will actually partake of the goods, right?  Lots of untracked pow for us?  smile.gif  

Diehards and hooky players.





post #1524 of 1592
I wanted to extend a late "thank you" to everyone for providing such helpful info on this thread. Our family trip to Copper, Loveland, and Winter Park was fabulous. Here are some highlights:

  • Copper: Skied from the Rendezvous lift with the kids. The view is fantastic, and the conditions were classic Spring skiing, sunny skies with changing snow through the day.

  • Loveland: Skied alone and found some nice moguls on Nix Nox (Chair 1) and Scrub (Chair 4). Took the Ridge Cat in the afternoon for some relatively untracked soft, but heavy, snow. One of the other snowcat riders told me not to tell anyone about Loveland. I can see why. It was a fantastic day.

  • Winter Park: Drove through a snowstorm to get there (on Sunday, Apr. 9th) and found 4-6 inches of fresh snow in areas. Worked my mogul technique on Gandy Dancer, Riflesight, and Cranmer, skied with the kids from Pano lift, and had another fantastic day.

  • IPAs: Tried some great IPAs, including Modus Hoppurandi, Odd 13 (Hop Troll and Codename: Superfan), Upslope, and a number of others I can't remember.

Here's a video I put together of the highlights. It's a long-but-funny video--and there's a nice wreck after the 10 minute mark. Thanks again everyone!



@DOCEVG
@headybrew
@cosmoliu
@aerojack
@bob-taylor
post #1525 of 1592
Thread Starter 
Still killing it out there biggrin.gif

post #1526 of 1592

Jane was the real deal today.

 

 

Not dust on crust...that's powder on chowder.   Pano opened around 11 to a completely untracked bowl...didn't stop to take pics.

 

post #1527 of 1592
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abox View Post

I had originally planned on riding my road bike next weekend when I come back to CO, but with the forecast now for a high a of only 43F with rain/snow and snowfall in the mountains, I feel I should opt for skiing. WP or Luv? Hmm.
post #1528 of 1592
Loveland was pretty amazing today



post #1529 of 1592
Thread Starter 
Yep, entire day was powder or powder on chowder, perfect density. I hit nothing underneath at any point, all day. Just ridiculously good, moving up high as Chair 9 opened in the afternoon and it got a little manky down low in the occasional afternoon sun.

I took a ton of pics after a last minute call to pull my youngest from school for a pow day.









post #1530 of 1592

Pretty sure I walked past Gipaldo at lunch time at ABasin as he was headed out the tunnel.

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