or Connect
EpicSki › The Barking Bear Forums › On the Snow (Skiing Forums) › General Skiing Discussion › Let the long range weather forecasts begin!
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Let the long range weather forecasts begin! - Page 2

post #31 of 35

I can provide real November-April monthly averages now and 2016-17 month by month totals by late May/early June next year.

 

November-April averages in inches:

Whistler (BC)  416

Park City (UT)  287 Summit House, 350 top of Jupiter

Big Sky (MT)  283

Vail (CO - I70)  359

Telluride (CO - SW) 278

Squaw Valley (CA)  base 270  upper 457

Mt Bachelor (OR)  381

Jackson Hole (WY) 367 mid-mountain

Taos (NM)  259

Killington (VT) 241

 

In terms of those who might want to track in-season, this is not necessarily the right list of resorts.   The good news is that all of these but Big Sky and Taos show a running total of season-to-date snowfall on their websites.  It is important to realize that mistakes can be made in daily reporting so occasionally the patrol stats collected at the end of the season may not match.  Another issue is that the running totals may include October, and if a website doesn't go live on November 1 it may not be possible until the end of the season to take out the October numbers.

 

Comments on specific areas above:

Park City:  Summit House is obviously what's most representative for skiing, but Jupiter is what's posted online during the season.  No data from Summit house will be available until May.  If you want one Utah area I would recommend using Alta Collins (519 average), for which there is a daily snowfall tracker on Alta's website.

Big Sky: No season-to-date total posted online.  You will see no data until May.   If you want another Northern Rockies area you can track, Bridger (302) and Sun Valley (191) are options. 

Telluride:  Season-to-date total comes online late November and likely include October.  The area closes early April and does not report April snow.  Sadly, early April closings are common in CO - SW, so only Aspen and Wolf Creek provide full April data.  The best data in that region comes from the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Gothic between Crested Butte and Aspen. Monthly and season-to-date totals are available on RMBL's website.

Squaw Valley:  A daily snowfall tracker is online for both upper and lower locations.  The relationship between the two varies due to rain incidence at the lower site.  If you want one number I recommend averaging the upper and lower.

Jackson Hole: Press releases always quote a site at the top of the Bridger gondola.  However the online snow report also shows a season-to-date total in smaller print from the long term mid-mountain site.

Taos: Usually no season-to-date total posted online.  They did it for  a while last year but not for the whole season.  Thus you will probably see no data until May. 

 

The calendars tracking daily snowfall on On-The-Snow.com are not always trustworthy. This data is collected on an automated basis and is not curated in any way.   Unfortunately the areas which do not post running totals on their own websites tend to be the least reliable on On-The-Snow.com as well.

 

As most of you know, I think the best season snowfall predictions are long term averages with a mild nudge during strong El Nino or La Nina episodes.  Monthly snowfall predictions are next to impossible due to huge volatility. 

post #32 of 35

A possible way to do this is to select resorts that have good historical measures-Tony's site is good for that.  Then take a select number of mountains around North America.  Each person gives their guess for each mountain as a percent of their historical average.  Once the end of the season numbers come in, the person with the lowest total deviation from the actual wins.

 

Of course just because you are at 120% of average does not mean you  have a good year.  End of March last year I was ridding the chair with Sean, a long time local in the industry.  He said it was the second lowest season snowfall at Crested Butte.  Looking around I was in disbelief.  He said they got a heavy snow end of December and it stayed real cold preserving everything.  Now I imagine it was a poor season, but the few days I skied there were great with 3" new each day because the mountain was well plastered keeping it all open though a bit bony. 

post #33 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post
 

I can provide real November-April monthly averages now and 2016-17 month by month totals by late May/early June next year.

 

November-April averages in inches:

Whistler (BC)  416

Park City (UT)  287 Summit House, 350 top of Jupiter

Big Sky (MT)  283

Vail (CO - I70)  359

Telluride (CO - SW) 278

Squaw Valley (CA)  base 270  upper 457

Mt Bachelor (OR)  381

Jackson Hole (WY) 367 mid-mountain

Taos (NM)  259

Killington (VT) 241

 

In terms of those who might want to track in-season, this is not necessarily the right list of resorts.   The good news is that all of these but Big Sky and Taos show a running total of season-to-date snowfall on their websites.  It is important to realize that mistakes can be made in daily reporting so occasionally the patrol stats collected at the end of the season may not match.  Another issue is that the running totals may include October, and if a website doesn't go live on November 1 it may not be possible until the end of the season to take out the October numbers.

 

Comments on specific areas above:

Park City:  Summit House is obviously what's most representative for skiing, but Jupiter is what's posted online during the season.  No data from Summit house will be available until May.  If you want one Utah area I would recommend using Alta Collins (519 average), for which there is a daily snowfall tracker on Alta's website.

Big Sky: No season-to-date total posted online.  You will see no data until May.   If you want another Northern Rockies area you can track, Bridger (302) and Sun Valley (191) are options. 

Telluride:  Season-to-date total comes online late November and likely include October.  The area closes early April and does not report April snow.  Sadly, early April closings are common in CO - SW, so only Aspen and Wolf Creek provide full April data.  The best data in that region comes from the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Gothic between Crested Butte and Aspen. Monthly and season-to-date totals are available on RMBL's website.

Squaw Valley:  A daily snowfall tracker is online for both upper and lower locations.  The relationship between the two varies due to rain incidence at the lower site.  If you want one number I recommend averaging the upper and lower.

Jackson Hole: Press releases always quote a site at the top of the Bridger gondola.  However the online snow report also shows a season-to-date total in smaller print from the long term mid-mountain site.

Taos: Usually no season-to-date total posted online.  They did it for  a while last year but not for the whole season.  Thus you will probably see no data until May. 

 

The calendars tracking daily snowfall on On-The-Snow.com are not always trustworthy. This data is collected on an automated basis and is not curated in any way.   Unfortunately the areas which do not post running totals on their own websites tend to be the least reliable on On-The-Snow.com as well.

 

As most of you know, I think the best season snowfall predictions are long term averages with a mild nudge during strong El Nino or La Nina episodes.  Monthly snowfall predictions are next to impossible due to huge volatility. 

 

Thanks for all that information! 

 

Maybe the better goal should just be to do season-end totals? Would you be interested in taking over the methodology part of this? In other words, picking how to evaluate and which mountains? None of this is my forte (clearly). I'd still be happy to run the actual submissions portion (not hard, just a Google Form) and pair it up with whatever you tell me the results are. 

post #34 of 35

I can provide precise month by month totals at the end of the season.  That means mid-May for many places but mid-June for the last stragglers. I publish these in June when I'm done http://bestsnow.net/summ16.htm

 

My bimonthly Season Progress Reports online show my best estimate of running totals for areas that post that info, subject to caveats above.  See references near top of this page: http://bestsnow.net/seas16.htm.

 

I am too busy during the season to make phone calls or track down any info other than what's in those bimonthly Season Progress Reports.

post #35 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Crocker View Post
 

The La Nina scenario is likely dead as it's neutral now and we are close to the time period (autumn) when it tends to be very stable. 

 

That said nobody in California should be happy to see the warm NE Pacific "blob" that went along with the horrible 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons reappear now.

 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lostboy View Post
 

Speaking of the return of the "NE Pacific blob" referenced by Tony Crocker in post #22 above, Cliff Mass, an Atmospheric Sciences prof. at University of Washington posted some thoughts on that subject on his weather blog just recently.


See:

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-blob-is-back.html

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/la-nina-watch-canceled-by-noaa.html

 

 

 

 

Apps below shows the current SSTA (sea surface temps abnormality). I've seen GFS long range reports that show the La Nina is off the table and the NW blog will reared its ugly head. 

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/equirectangular

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Skiing Discussion
EpicSki › The Barking Bear Forums › On the Snow (Skiing Forums) › General Skiing Discussion › Let the long range weather forecasts begin!