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Let the long range weather forecasts begin!

post #1 of 35
Thread Starter 

I like this one....but I don't know anything about Firsthand Weather.

 

post #2 of 35

I guess I would fit in number 4. I like the snow, brutal Cold doesn't sound like fun though. 

post #3 of 35

no, let them not

post #4 of 35
Im taking zero bets from anybody but NWS/NOAA. The Almanacs blew last winter in the east too badly.
post #5 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by dakine View Post
 

I like this one....but I don't know anything about Firsthand Weather.

 

 

Lots more detail here :

 

http://firsthandweather.com/2105/early-2016-17-winter-forecast/

post #6 of 35

I'm certainly no meteorologist and being foreign to the country I have no anecdotal evidence as to weather patterns in North America.

I take weather predictions (longer than about 5 to 7 days) with a grain of salt. That being said the 'report' in my opinion is rubbish. It is poorly generalized and in some places contradictory. The writer seems to hedge his bets in almost every region.

This will be good to look back at in 7 or 8 months.

Has anyone found any weather outlook report to be accurate in the main?

post #7 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by sbooker View Post

I'm certainly no meteorologist and being foreign to the country I have no anecdotal evidence as to weather patterns in North America.
I take weather predictions (longer than about 5 to 7 days) with a grain of salt. That being said the 'report' in my opinion is rubbish. It is poorly generalized and in some places contradictory. The writer seems to hedge his bets in almost every region.
This will be good to look back at in 7 or 8 months.
Has anyone found any weather outlook report to be accurate in the main?

I don't blame him for hedging at all. Being accurate this far before winter is simply impossible. Anyone who claims to know more is lying at this point.

And if someone turns out to be more accurate than everyone else, they got lucky or they're magic.
post #8 of 35
^^^^
My point exactly. It's impossible to predict so why lead readers to believe it has a better chance than even of being accurate. I know that if Colorado is not cooler than usual it may be warmer than usual.
post #9 of 35
Thread Starter 

OK, the NOAA forecast is firming up.

This is as reliable as it gets which is not very!

Fits with my perceptions of what our Northern Michigan weather is doing though.

Gonna be good up here again although a slow start can be expected.

 

 

Closing day at Nubs last season.

12" of powder on April 3.

post #10 of 35

It's now August so why not speculate on what winter may bring and where.

 

For the curious see:

 

http://snowbrains.com/official-noaa-la-nina-update-55-60-chance-of-la-nina-this-winter/

 

 

This information was published in SnowBrains on August 11,2016.

 

Pick the most optimistic forecast for your region and then sit back (or start tuning your skis) and enjoy the anticipation at least until some forecasts change as winter comes closer. Can't find a favorable prediction? Disregard them all, hope for the best and develop a skiing plan "B" for the upcoming season.:) 

 

Edit: for clarity


Edited by Lostboy - 8/13/16 at 12:06pm
post #11 of 35
PNW seems to be ahead of schedule for fall/winter. Typical signs-Animals shedding,tree fruit abundant,Geese moving. Personally I think the upcoming season will be similar to last year. One can hope for a pow year too.
post #12 of 35
Thread Starter 

In most places, if you predict that the weather tomorrow will be the same as today you will be nearly as accurate as NOAA's supercomputers.

post #13 of 35
Exactly. That's why I have a Met. Ob. degree. ;-)
post #14 of 35

To round out the early forecast resources in post #10 above is the Farmers' Almanac "forecast" (which is not to be confused with rival publication "Old Farmer's Almanac") which appeared in Snowbrains today. See:

 

 

http://snowbrains.com/farmers-almanac-2017-winter-outlook/

 

 

The methodology and validity of these early season long range predictions can be questioned, of course. However, there is a fair amount of amount of research validating the value of anticipation in increasing personal happiness. So, if you find a forecast that bodes well for your region, enjoy the effects of anticipation. If not, perhaps you can start thinking about travel options this coming season, even if you don't decide on a particular destination until later.  A fair amount of the fun lies in the "anticipation".

Enjoy.:) 

post #15 of 35

I thought I would update this with the latest from NOAA which is to cancel the 2016/17 La Nina weather watch:

See: http://snowbrains.com/noaa-is-no-longer-expecting-la-nina-this-winter-la-nina-watch-canceled.

 

While this does not preclude the possibility of a La Nina event developing this winter, it is being forecast by NOAA as having only about  40%-45% chance of developing during the next six months. Back in May, NOAA was estimating a 75% chance which they have revised downwards several times since.

 

Non-El Nino/La Nina winters can can be all over the place in terms of snowfall. Some have produced very mild winters, some of average severity, and others quite severe depending on the region. For now keep your fingers crossed for plentiful snowfall in your region.

 

Perhaps, Tony Crocker or other weather savvy Epic members can provide further information and interpretation.

 

Since there is a fair amount of amount of research validating the value of "anticipation" in increasing one's personal happiness, we can at least dream of the winter to come (and maybe also contemplate a plan "B" just in case).

post #16 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lostboy View Post

 

Perhaps, Tony Crocker or other weather savvy Epic members can provide further information and interpretation.

 

Paging @Tony Crocker ... do you have data split out for years that are neither El or La Nino's?

post #17 of 35

Bastardi's long range winter forecast. Overall, good for the Rockies and NE. Bad for NW.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast

post #18 of 35

We now have a broad spectrum of differing regional long range predictions to choose from. There's some cause for hope for practically everyone.

 

It seems that science of long range weather predictions still has quite a ways to go before much reliance can be placed on such forecasts. Still, speculating about the winter to come is a benign enough September activity to engage in. Certainly, it generates less heat than some other threads that tend to crop up during the summers on Epic.;)

 

For me, I'm going with the prediction below for the time being:

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by mowmow View Post

PNW seems to be ahead of schedule for fall/winter. Typical signs-Animals shedding,tree fruit abundant,Geese moving. Personally I think the upcoming season will be similar to last year. One can hope for a pow year too.

 

Now, it's time to move onto the gear forums.:snowfall:)

post #19 of 35

A good long term forecast should be written so that no matter what the weather turns out to be, the forecast will look like it's right. Like mind readers, fortune tellers, and FBI profilers.  (Apparently no criminal has ever been identified on the basis of a profile, but after they have been caught by other means, the profile always seems to fit somehow.)

post #20 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lostboy View Post

It's now August so why not speculate on what winter may bring and where.

For the curious see:

http://snowbrains.com/official-noaa-la-nina-update-55-60-chance-of-la-nina-this-winter/

This information was published in SnowBrains on August 11,2016.

Pick the most optimistic forecast for your region and then sit back (or start tuning your skis) and enjoy the anticipation at least until some forecasts change as winter comes closer. Can't find a favorable prediction? Disregard them all, hope for the best and develop a skiing plan "B" for the upcoming season.smile.gif  

Edit: for clarity

Exactly, I am working on my cave and tuning bench. It's going to be a great winter in the East
🙂
post #21 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by jack97 View Post
 

Bastardi's long range winter forecast. Overall, good for the Rockies and NE. Bad for NW.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast


Well now, it doesn't look so bad for my part of the Northwest.  It looks like dead-on normal.  Normal around here is pretty good, usually.

post #22 of 35

The La Nina scenario is likely dead as it's neutral now and we are close to the time period (autumn) when it tends to be very stable. 

 

Most you know I agree with sbooker's comments 100% that forecasts beyond 5-7 days out are in the realm of fantasy. 

 

That said nobody in California should be happy to see the warm NE Pacific "blob" that went along with the horrible 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons reappear now.

post #23 of 35

I share that view about long range forecasts that many have expressed here.  Although I think 7 to 21 day forecasts do hold validity if you allow for some variability.

 

What gives me pause is that private weather companies charge a great deal for specific long range forecasts.  If these prove no better than what NOAA is putting out I doubt business people would continue to pay their price.

post #24 of 35
I do however find historical statistics interesting and use them as a guide to what may be. For example if your favourite cricketer has a batting average of 50 and his team mate averages 40 the chances of the first batsman having a better series this coming summer is higher.
Doesn't always ring true though.
post #25 of 35

Speaking of the return of the "NE Pacific blob" referenced by Tony Crocker in post #22 above, Cliff Mass, an Atmospheric Sciences prof. at University of Washington posted some thoughts on that subject on his weather blog just recently.


See:

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/the-blob-is-back.html

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/09/la-nina-watch-canceled-by-noaa.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

post #26 of 35

I wonder if anyone would be interested in doing  "Snow Prediction Fantasy" of some sort where everyone tries to guess the snow that'll be received by various resorts across North America.

post #27 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoraster View Post

I wonder if anyone would be interested in doing  "Snow Prediction Fantasy" of some sort where everyone tries to guess the snow that'll be received by various resorts across North America.

I would! Are you thinking just season totals? Or opening dates for various resorts? Or what?

We'd have to set some ground rules for which data serves as the official record and how to submit your picks. I'll give it some thought.
post #28 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbostedo View Post


I would! Are you thinking just season totals? Or opening dates for various resorts? Or what?

We'd have to set some ground rules for which data serves as the official record and how to submit your picks. I'll give it some thought.

I was thinking something like pick a handful... maybe 5-8 resorts across north america and have people guess totals by month, November-March. That way no one is really out of it if they predict no snow for the season and then there's a lot of it. I guess the other question is whether we care only about snowfall or if we care about base depth too? I find the way resorts report base depth to be pretty iffy though (not methodologically necessarily, but sometimes I feel like 30" skis really nicely and sometimes 55" feels crummy). 

 

Something like one resort for each of: Tahoe, BC, Utah, Front Range Colorado, Southwestern Colorado, New England. That's kind of a Western biased sample size, but that's what I know best. 

post #29 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoraster View Post
 

Something like one resort for each of: Tahoe, BC, Utah, Front Range Colorado, Southwestern Colorado, New England. That's kind of a Western biased sample size, but that's what I know best. 

If your intent is to focus on the big tourist trap places, then your list is fine, but you left a number of western regions out like coastal WA and OR, eastern WA ,OR, and Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico, etc.  Any of these could be their own group. 

post #30 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Posaune View Post
 

If your intent is to focus on the big tourist trap places, then your list is fine, but you left a number of western regions out like coastal WA and OR, eastern WA ,OR, and Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico, etc.  Any of these could be their own group. 

 

Sure. My purpose isn't to focus on "tourist traps" but rather try to find a group of 5-10 resorts that covers some area. I do think wide recognition, particularly for those outside of the region is valuable, but I'm more than happy to incorporate whever. In particular, I think PNW and Big Sky need some inclusion.

 

There is a limit to how long it should be though or people's eyes will start to glaze over when they do it. If someone is just making gut check guesses, I'd probably prefer it not to take longer than 5 minutes or so.

 

Here's a preliminary start of a list:

 

Whistler (BC)

Park City (UT)

Big Sky (MT)

Vail (CO - I70)

Telluride (CO - SW)

Squaw Valley (CA)

Mt Bachelor (OR)

Jackson Hole (WY)

Taos (NM)

Killington (VT)

 

That's 10 resorts. More than happy to do any substituting around if some region is more worthy than others or if some resort is a better representative than another. Remember, the goal is for everyone who's doing it to go "ah! Yeah, I DO wonder how the snow'll be at XXX" which requires some name recognition. And I think 10 is probably the upper limit to how many we want.

 

EDIT: If we only use season end snowfall we could probably up that to 15 or so resorts as it won't take nearly as long to find that information.

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