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US housing discussion including ski country

post #1 of 21
Thread Starter 

This is a link to a Wash Post article on how varied the US housing recovery has been since the recession:   https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/wonk/housing/overview/

 

here is a companion piece on San Francisco/Stockton housing:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/wonk/housing/stockton/

 

If you have trouble using the link just google terms like:  WaPo housing divide and San Francisco's long shadow to see the articles that way.  There is a map in the housing divide article that you can shrink and move around the whole country to see how appreciation has been everywhere including trends in ski regions.  Surprisingly, Winter Park CO (at least the town) housing has not recovered since the recession according to this map.  The San Fran article is interesting because it's where the recovery disparity is most stark in just an 80 mile radius.  San Fran real estate has doubled in value since the recession, yet Stockton's has dropped even further.  Some of the weak rebound is evident in the Lake Tahoe region too.  

One of the themes of the articles is that while the housing market in general has recovered, the recovery has been sharply uneven in places. Wealthy areas have rebounded much stronger than lower valued areas.

 

How is real estate doing in your residential area, particularly compared to around your local ski areas?

post #2 of 21

I think it's a portal into the wealth divide issue and real wages.  Plus the ability to borrow.  I also find it interesting how the expansion of credit for autos has taken off.  Talk about your bad investments..

post #3 of 21
We're recovering, but not quite (close, depends how you're measuring) up to pre-recession levels yet.

More info than you wanted to know about Flathead county real estate: http://kelleyappraisal.net/MarketUpdate/2016-April%20Update.pdf

For those with a blank look, Flathead County is the area around Whitefish.

More:
Whitefish city: http://flatheadbeacon.com/2016/02/03/kelleys-market-trends-5/

Northwest Montana: http://flatheadbeacon.com/2016/05/18/kelleys-market-trends-western-montana-home-price-trends/

First Quarter Residential: http://flatheadbeacon.com/2016/05/11/kelleys-market-trends-residential-sales-first-4-months/

Recalling other articles from that guy, the action is in small lot sizes, pricey real estate is stagnant and there's more inventory than interest.

If I look at Zillow immediately around where I live, there's a lot of "recently sold" markers relative to any time in the past few years. Immediately up the hill from me, there's three new families, only one of whom I've dropped in on to say hi to, as I'm not sure the furniture is even arranged yet.
Edited by sibhusky - 5/27/16 at 12:08pm
post #4 of 21

We're still dealing with this:

 

 

 

I'm waiting for the crash..

post #5 of 21
Without any identity for the X and Y axis the charts mean nothing. Please supply.
post #6 of 21
I believe x is the year, and y is the ratio of Canadian home prices to US?

No wonder there's so many Canadians here.
post #7 of 21

They seem to be comparing apples and oranges in this graph.  I wonder who it's supposed to impress?  They compare two hot urban markets to the market for an entire country.  What would it look like if they did the same comparison to average Canadian home prices?  Or how about Toronto against New York City, or Vancouver against Seattle or San Francisco; then you'd have a comparison that tells you something.

post #8 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Posaune View Post
 

They seem to be comparing apples and oranges in this graph.  I wonder who it's supposed to impress?  They compare two hot urban markets to the market for an entire country.  What would it look like if they did the same comparison to average Canadian home prices?  Or how about Toronto against New York City, or Vancouver against Seattle or San Francisco; then you'd have a comparison that tells you something.


Not trying to impress anyone.  I think you're missing the point...  Historically Canadian prices have generally followed US prices more or less, at about a 1.49x value.  As shown in the chart, after the US crash in 2008 we continued to climb at an ever increasing pace.  So we have not experienced the same crash here, despite the fact that our household debt level exceeds what the US debt level was just prior to the crash..or that our prices are now over valued by as much as 50% depending on what metric you use..rent vs ownership..salary ratio...  The point is, the housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver appear to be levitating on a cushion of excessive debt..or from foreign influx..or we're just really rich..which is kind of insane when you consider that Ontario's public debt is $100 billion more than California when we have the 1/3rd the population of California and probably 1/4 of the GDP.  Oh, and last year I paid 36% in income tax..think about that compared to the typical US income tax...

post #9 of 21


Sell Now!  

 

 It's a short trip    -but a long way down...   

 

 

Your mortgage system is a bit different though (as I recall)     

 

5 year note?

post #10 of 21
Five years? To pay it off?? Or they only hold the rate steady for five years? Do you keep refinancing every five years? Sounds like a lot of paperwork and stress.
post #11 of 21

Typically people amortize over 25 to 30 years and are able to renegotiate every 5 years or less, depending on the terms they choose.  It seems more and more people are actually carrying a mortgage into their "retirement".  CMHC (equivalent of Freddie Mac or Fanny Mae) backstops about $600billion in home mortgages, or about 60% of the mortgage market in Canada.  CMHC, until recently, backstopped mortages for people who had less than 20% down.  There is a real problem with due diligence on those mortgages as the gov't is reliant on the mortgage broker to fact-check.  And since the broker has no skin in the game, what do they care?  If a bank is loaning to someone with over 20% down they are responsible for backstopping the mortgage, which means it's actually harder to get a mortgage with 20% down than with 0% down. 

 

Two differences I think are you can write off mortgage debt in the states, can't do that here.  Also, you can't walk away from a mortgage here like in the US.  The penalties are greater, not that it doesn't happen.  Now they're proposing that your property taxes be geared towards the equity you have in a property rather than the value of the property.  So if you own your house by good financial discipline you are punished with higher taxes.  If you borrow wildly you are rewarded with no property taxes.  I just don't understand the market here..I'm sure people in the States who went through the 2008 crisis and took some lumps are probably recognizing some of the signs..

post #12 of 21
We started out with a thirty year fixed. Then renegotiated down to a fifteen year fixed about five years back to get better rates, keep the payment the same, and get done with things sooner. Rates are lower now, but the fees would make it not worth it to go through all that. The crazy thing was, they reappraised the property even though the value of just the land was way higher than the balance on the mortgage. But they had their process. That was a big hassle I wouldn't want to repeat every five years.
post #13 of 21
The problem here is the process isn't followed. They ask you how much your property is worth...
post #14 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott43 View Post

The problem here is the process isn't followed. They ask you how much your property is worth...

Certainly not true with our bank. They picked their own appraiser, it was at the bottom of the real estate crash, and we were appraised at less than half what it cost us to build. Of course, that's handy when the tax appraiser comes around and you don't like HIS appraisal.

The bank told us at the time that no one was refinancing to get lower rates, because their appraisals were coming in way lower than the mortgage principal. We didn't have that issue, because most of the house was built with cash from sales of property back east and never was remotely near the home value.

But anyway, point is, who wants to go through hours of signing papers every five years, seems nuts. So, no option to get a 30 year loan?
post #15 of 21
Well there's no real need to go in. You just roll it over. Unless you want to change the lending institution. The sad part is we have been offered about 6 times our gross income on a mortgage. That's not good.
post #16 of 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott43 View Post

Well there's no real need to go in. You just roll it over. Unless you want to change the lending institution. The sad part is we have been offered about 6 times our gross income on a mortgage. That's not good.

Well, we never paid attention to that, we always looked at what we thought we could afford based on our run rate. After all, the bank's short term goal is to have you paying them as much as possible. Which is not necessarily in your interest. My husband and I had depression era parents. Saving trumps borrowing.
post #17 of 21
We're the same but... Many are not. And when the crash comes we will all be bailing then out. Just like the us
post #18 of 21

My guess is you may have 6-8 months and some unforeseen disaster will cause financial insanity....   

 

    Convert to cash and rent!    

 

     ..... you can buy back in when the house of cards falls !!

 

     .....Get out at the top!        Like a ski lift!    

 

 

  Had I sold out in 2007-  (It got a bit less liquid- and stuff quit selling)     I'd be skiing today   -instead of working...

 

You have a unique opportunity-    Act on it!!!

post #19 of 21
We're watching. We're in good shape so a crash works for us. Just the waiting.
post #20 of 21
Here's an interesting chart showing regional housing prices:



The article details what states are in what regions.
post #21 of 21

Housing where my primary residence is (Long Island, NY) is pretty healthy.  Prices have come back and homes seem to be selling well.  At Killington, Vt where I own a condo, it's less pretty.  Prices have just started to recover from the recession lows.  Sales are pretty good however and inventory is down, so prices should start moving up.  Second home markets are always more volatile and take longer to recover after a decline.

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