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Snowfall outlook for 2016-2017 - Page 3

post #61 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmelton94 View Post
 

I hope the new NOAA forecast charts hold, with the return of the Blob from 2013-15, and nothing to overpower it, I predict the west coast is fu*ked, the rockies will be a little below normal, and the east coast will have a good season.  I hope this isn't true as I will be in California again enjoying the winter surf and hopefully the snow.

 

If I had to put a marker on a bet this would be mine ^^^^^.  I also think Alaska will fair poorly, but the interior Canadian mountains will have an average winter.

post #62 of 68

http://opensnow.com/news/post/long-range-weather-forecasts-stink-a-look-back-at-the-winter-snow-forecast-for-2015-2016?comments=true#disqus_thread

 

The above should be required reading.   If other variables can produce a FAIL in as strong an El Nino year as 2015-16, the long range forecasts when ENSO is neutral like now are a complete waste of time.

post #63 of 68

My gut is saying it will be another crappy season out west but who knows these days.  I'll be happy with a 100% open mountain from Jan-March, really all you can ask for.

post #64 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by core2 View Post
 

My gut is saying it will be another crappy season out west but who knows these days.  I'll be happy with a 100% open mountain from Jan-March, really all you can ask for.

How does your gut tell you this? . . . .Wait, on second thought, I don't think I want to know.

post #65 of 68
Yeah, my gut says two subnormal winters mean it's time for a good winter. I'm quite optimistic.
post #66 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by sibhusky View Post

Yeah, my gut says two subnormal winters mean it's time for a good winter. I'm quite optimistic.

 

While it was a bad year everywhere in the west in 2014-15, it was the best in almost 2 decades and a near record year for snowfall in 2015-16 in B.C. and at the same time it was a poor snow year at Alberta ski resorts. :dunno I cut short a ski trip to Castle in early March because the coverage was "adequate" which means a bit scary due to the wind scouring which can happen there. I completely skipped Louise and Sunshine and figured I would go there in April instead on my MC pass but I never did.

post #67 of 68
Well, inland was a subnormal year. Not so much in snowfall quantities (average) as snow quality. Lots of hardpack. And because of warm temperatures, way too much fog. The year before was really bad, but I don't think the fog was quite as bad. What we really need is a COLD winter.
Edited by sibhusky - 10/11/16 at 1:29pm
post #68 of 68
Quote = DanoT:
a near record year for snowfall in 2015-16 in B.C.

Only for your subregion of B.C.  Only Sun Peaks, Big White and Red Mt. were more than one standard deviation above average in 2015-16 among the areas where I collect data.  Presumably Apex and Silver Star were also. Fernie and Castle were slightly below average like Whitefish.  The Banff areas, Revelstoke and Whitewater were close to average.  Whistler was 119% of average, but has had 5 seasons over 130% in the past 20 years.

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