Quote = beyond:
Totally agree about forecasts that try to predict local conditions. IME though NOAA is fairly good at predicting large patterns and trends over chunks of a continent.
In beyond's OP he comments that some forecasters think the El Nino will persist another 9-11 months while we've all heard lots of speculation that 2016-17 will be strong La Nina.
The bottom line is that in June NO ONE HAS a F***in' CLUE what the weather will be 6 months from now.
El Nino/La Nina is unstable at this time of year and thus not a good prediction tool. In September/October it becomes quite stable, so useful as a broad but not specific predictor for the upcoming ski season at a selected group of areas that are sensitive to it. So in the fall perhaps sibhusky should pay attention to that because she skis a resort with high sensitivity. If you live/ski in Utah or Colorado El Nino/La Nina are not useful predictors.
If people would pay more attention to the long term weather history plus the snow preservation characteristics of ski resorts rather than fantasyland 3 or 6 month weather forecasts, they would do a much better job of planning destination ski trips.
The much hyped 2015-16 El Nino should be a cautionary experience. The regions that were supposed to suck (PNW, northern Rockies of both US and Canada) had the most snow relative to average in North America. And it would have been far above average if not for a super warm and dry April, after most of these areas had closed due to remote location and lack of customers. Who had the MOST snow relative to average last season? That would be Big White at 133%, and DanoT can confirm that Sun Peaks was not far behind. Meanwhile Southern California and Arizona came in at 59% and 78%.