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Has this been the worst snow season ever? - Page 12

post #331 of 337
Yesterday on the other hand was good. That's a two hour time spread biggrin.gif



post #332 of 337
2000-2001 March was amazing. As I remember we got like 7 ft of snow. I went to Sugarloaf the third week in April. Two out of three days were like Colo and the snowfields up top were open. Then a warm wind came in, blew dust all over the snow and the base was near 70deg. So real spring. Went to Jay like the 28th, they set a record at that time of 470 something inches which I think they've eclipsed since.
post #333 of 337
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tog View Post

2000-2001 March was amazing. As I remember we got like 7 ft of snow. I went to Sugarloaf the third week in April. Two out of three days were like Colo and the snowfields up top were open. Then a warm wind came in, blew dust all over the snow and the base was near 70deg. So real spring. Went to Jay like the 28th, they set a record at that time of 470 something inches which I think they've eclipsed since.


You were at Jay that time too. March 2001, I have the Tee shirt they printed a few day's before we got there. I think its reads March 23rd, 423 inches, we got like four more feet the day's we were there. My son and I went up with a married couple who taught skiing and boarding at Okemo we went up on the CT Ski Council trip.

 

That could have also been the March where I think it was the second weekend on Sunday afternoon they had already cancelled school back here in CT. I left my son in VT with a teacher friend so they could ski Monday. When I got home and watched the evening news, the Governor had closed the state and asked everyone to stay home on Monday. I finished doing laundry and headed back to VT. I was back in Ludlow VT by 9:30PM. I remember waking up in the morning and seeing the snow up to the windows on the cars.

post #334 of 337
Quote= Tony Crocker, 3/20/16, http://www.epicski.com/t/146190/has-this-been-the-worst-snow-season-ever/150#post_1987951:

Worst year of the past decade in Kottke:

Northeast 11.0 in 2011-12 (85%)

Midwest 6.4 in 2011-12 (86%)

Southeast 4.4 in 2011-12 (81%)

Rockies 19.1 in 2011-12 (93%)

Pacific Southwest 4.8 in 2014-15 (70%)

Pacific Northwest 2.2 in 2014-15 (59%)

Total 51.0 million skier visits in 2011-12, lowest since 1991-92

Percentages shown above indicate sensitivity to snow conditions. Rockies destination trips are booked far ahead and most people go through with them even if they know it's going to be crappy because they have paid already.  West Coasters are clearly the most sensitive and flexible to snow conditions. The regions east of the Rockies fall somewhere in between.

 

2014-15 was 53.0 skier visits, second lowest since 1999-2000

 

So what's a good estimate for 2015-16?

Let's say the hit in the Northeast will be twice as bad as in 2011-12.  That's 9.1 million

I don't know details about the Midwest but comments are negative so assume same as 2011-12, 6.4 million

Southeast is described as normal midwinter but slow start, so assume midway between average and worst, 4.9 million

The Rockies are just above average but holiday was strong, assume 21.0 million

Pacific Southwest should rebound strongly after the past 4 bad seasons, assume 7.5 million (record high is 8.1)

Average or better PNW seasons are consistently around 4 million, so assume 4.0

Projected US Skier Visits in 2015-16: 52.9 million, about the same as last year

Preliminary Kottke report for 2015-16 was released Friday (my predictions in parentheses):

 

Northeast  9.6 (9.1)

Southeast 4.0 (4.9)

Midwest 5.8 (6.4)

Rockies 22.4 (21.0)

Pacific Southwest 7.4 (7.5)

Pacific Northwest 4.8 (4.0)

Total 53.9 (52.9)

 

For the eastern regions with a bad season, I overestimated the Northeast but underestimated the Midwest and Southeast.  I don't track the latter regions in season, and so I relied on anecdotal comments here that did not seem as dire as from Northeast skiers.

 

No surprise I made the closest prediction for my own region.  PNW set an all time record high, not predictable at all as average to good seasons have been very consistent in the past in the 4 million range.  The Rockies were also an all time record high. I have to guess they got some late planned trips from those suffering the dismal season in eastern regions.

 

53.9 million is not a great number in historical context. Extreme low seasons hurt visitation more than extreme high seasons help.  Since 2001 the 3 lowest US seasons are 51.0 in 2011-12, 53.6 in 2014-15 and 53.9 in 2015-16.   A baseline normal season in all regions would add to about 57 million.  The record highs during excellent snow seasons were 60.5 million in 2008 and 2011.

post #335 of 337

The Midwest was really bad this year with warm temps and below normal precip with much of it in liquid form.  Areas generally opened late and closed early.  Hope next winter is better so I can make up for all the days I missed.

 

Bill

post #336 of 337

Aspen's advanced bookings last fall were way down, especially overseas. Strong dollar and turmoil in Brazil were the biggest culprits.

 

They started improving around Christmas and exploded after the EpicSki Gathering. 

post #337 of 337

11 more pages after the obviously stupid question was answered.

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