Originally Posted by dbostedo
Anyone know what percent of the North American market New England skiing is, by either revenue or visits?
Average 2006-2015 of Kottke reports for the US (millions):
Pacific Southwest 6.9
Pacific Northwest 3.7
Total 57.0 million Skier Visits
Canada 2004-2012 average per Ski Canada Magazine:
Total 19.1 million Skier Visits
45% British Columbia
Worst year of the past decade in Kottke:
Northeast 11.0 in 2011-12 (85%)
Midwest 6.4 in 2011-12 (86%)
Southeast 4.4 in 2011-12 (81%)
Rockies 19.1 in 2011-12 (93%)
Pacific Southwest 4.8 in 2014-15 (70%)
Pacific Northwest 2.2 in 2014-15 (59%)
Total 51.0 million skier visits in 2011-12, lowest since 1991-92
Percentages shown above indicate sensitivity to snow conditions. Rockies destination trips are booked far ahead and most people go through with them even if they know it's going to be crappy because they have paid already. West Coasters are clearly the most sensitive and flexible to snow conditions. The regions east of the Rockies fall somewhere in between.
2014-15 was 53.0 skier visits, second lowest since 1999-2000
So what's a good estimate for 2015-16?
Let's say the hit in the Northeast will be twice as bad as in 2011-12. That's 9.1 million
I don't know details about the Midwest but comments are negative so assume same as 2011-12, 6.4 million
Southeast is described as normal midwinter but slow start, so assume midway between average and worst, 4.9 million
The Rockies are just above average but holiday was strong, assume 21.0 million
Pacific Southwest should rebound strongly after the past 4 bad seasons, assume 7.5 million (record high is 8.1)
Average or better PNW seasons are consistently around 4 million, so assume 4.0
Projected US Skier Visits in 2015-16: 52.9 million, about the same as last year
The above exercise demonstrates the impact of poor snow upon skier visits is highest when hitting the most visited regions. So no surprise 2011-12 is the worst for skier visits because the top 3 regions for attendance, Northeast, Front Range Colorado and California, were all bad.
Presumably the larger destination resorts generate the most revenue. So I'm guessing revenue will not be as far below average as skier visits in 2015-16, and will be better than 2014-15.