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What resort will Vail Resorts buy next? - Page 3

post #61 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by CentralVT08 View Post

I do not think Vail is going to be concerned about electric costs here in NE. The resorts with healthy skier visits make ends meet, and Vail will likely increase visits at whatever location it might purchase.

I do think Vail faces two problems moving into the NE:

1) Vail's strategy has been to promote season pass sales within an ecosystem, and capitalize on consistent loyal repeat visits. That model functions excellently out west where a huge portion of skier days come from season passes. That is almost the inverse of NE. The majority of skier visits in NE come from ticket sales, not passes. Now perhaps Vail's target audience is already demographically a season pass holder in the NE, but it is a big difference in skier habits from East to West.

2) I am sure Wilmot and Alfton Alps are great places in their respective markets, but that kind of resort purchase in the NE would not work. Let's says Vail purchased Crotched or Waterville as examples. How many area skiers would tie themselves with a pass to a single resort in NH with only 1000 ft vert in HSQ terrain? Vail has been buying the bigger fish in a very small pond in the midwest. NJ might allow a replication of that model, but in VT/NH they will have to go big if they want to drive extra sales.

In Utah Vail purchased two biggest players in the most lucrative and profitable Park City, UT market. When they moved to PNW they nabbed the biggest single fish in North America. The skier market in New England is bigger than UT with VT alone frequently getting more visits. Vail moving into NE will mean purchasing a major resort, not a feeder hill.

What could a splashy Vail move look like?

-Stowe has the iconic name, terrain, and only a single owner, and the well traveled clientele.
-Killington is the biggest fish in the pond. Buy the Beast, upgrade the infrastructure and build the connection to Pico.
-Okemo and Mt Sunapee, you get two states, local multi-resort bonus, and total visits close to Killington.
-Buy out Boyne in NE and PNW
-Buy the best assists of Peak Resorts (Hunter, Mt Snow, maybe Crotched) when they go bankrupt
-Best option: Jay Peak and Burke--multi resort, much more reliable snow, discounted price at auction, the evil Vail Empire becomes the hero rescuing two rural economies, and they are 2 hours from the 4.5 million people in the Montreal and Burlington metro areas

I think your point two is spot on. They want to own feeder hills that are dominant in their local markets preferably with minimal local alternatives.

As I believe Tony said earlier, the socal area mountains could have been attractive for the same reason as the midwest feeders. I'd go so far as to propose that AZ snowbowl would have made a great Western feeder hill. Minimal competition. Population that expects to travel...
post #62 of 112

Yes, Big Bear totally dominates the SoCal local scene due to unlimited water supply for world class snowmaking.  The past 5 years of drought have strengthened that dominance further as the wells for Mt. High's more limited snowmaking have dried up.  M. High has never been 100% open anytime or stayed open at all much past February the past 3 seasons.

 

I suspect CentralVT08 is right on.  Vail would need a prominent enough NE area(s) that skiers would be content concentrating their daytrip/weekend skiing there.

post #63 of 112

Mount Snow in southern Vermont is AFAIK the closest Vermont resort to both Boston (2.5hrs) and NYC (3.75hrs) so it might be of interest to Vail. However Vail now has a commitment to the WB Renaissance Project to the tune of hundreds of $millions so maybe their buying spree is over for now.

post #64 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanoT View Post
 

Mount Snow in southern Vermont is AFAIK the closest Vermont resort to both Boston (2.5hrs) and NYC (3.75hrs) so it might be of interest to Vail. However Vail now has a commitment to the WB Renaissance Project to the tune of hundreds of $millions so maybe their buying spree is over for now.

This is true but they also just added the massive revenue stream of WB to their portfolio as well. Along with that Renaissance has been in the works for a while which leads me to believe that they could just use WB revenue to pay for the plan as that must have been how they would do it before.

post #65 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrizzlyAdams View Post
 

This is true but they also just added the massive revenue stream of WB to their portfolio as well. Along with that Renaissance has been in the works for a while which leads me to believe that they could just use WB revenue to pay for the plan as that must have been how they would do it before.

The Renaissance project is going to be an investment of several hundred millions of $, so annual WB net profits are not enough to cover the project on its own. So the owners of WB, Nippon Cable and now Vail Resorts have to come with the cash or bank financing to do the Renaissance project. This is one of the reasons that the Vail purchase is such a positive for WB because there is now even stronger financially backed ownership than before.

post #66 of 112

Stowe, Vermont. 

post #67 of 112

That would be the rumor...

 

Waiting to hear actual confirmation.


Edited by Whiteroom - 1/23/17 at 2:30pm
post #68 of 112

This sort of caught my curiosity because it is mentioned in several places now.  I have been checking the filings each morning and evening and zip, nada.  Maybe it's still in the working out the details stage?

post #69 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by SHREDHEAD View Post

I don't see Jay Kemmerer selling Jackson, to Vail. He has a business plan that seems to be working quite well and it doesn't fit VR's model.

 

 

Just curious - what are the differences between how Jackson Hole is run and how Vail Resorts runs it's mountains?

 

Thnx

post #70 of 112

Establishing a brand, instead of milking as much revenue as possible from the guests.

post #71 of 112

I think it's maybe a combination of both at Jackson Hole. Establishing a brand that allows you to drive revenue the way you want. That is Vail's strategy with Vail Mountain itself but maybe not applicable to all their mountains.

post #72 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike78 View Post

This sort of caught my curiosity because it is mentioned in several places now.  I have been checking the filings each morning and evening and zip, nada.  Maybe it's still in the working out the details stage?

This might be 'nothing'... but it seems like WAY too much smoke for there not to be flames. I know a little about the level of due diligence being performed. This isn't idle "imagine if..." by a few locals, there is more going on.
post #73 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiteroom View Post


This might be 'nothing'... but it seems like WAY too much smoke for there not to be flames. I know a little about the level of due diligence being performed. This isn't idle "imagine if..." by a few locals, there is more going on.

 

IntraWest was just put up for sale, so Vail Resorts is certainly a potential bidder for some/all of those assets (Mount Tremblant, Stratton and the heli skiing operation look like great targets for Vail). 

 

Seems like Stowe, owned by an AIG sub could also be a target, though not sure of the basis to re-affirm that idea.

 

By the way, if Vail paid $1 billion for Whistler and around $300 million for Canyons, how much do you think Stowe would go for?


Edited by naja - 1/25/17 at 10:38am
post #74 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dryheat View Post

I'd go so far as to propose that AZ snowbowl would have made a great Western feeder hill. Minimal competition. Population that expects to travel...

 

AZ snowbowl would be great.  I noticed Vail has started advertising American's new route from PHX - EGE on billboards in the valley. 

post #75 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by naja View Post
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiteroom View Post


This might be 'nothing'... but it seems like WAY too much smoke for there not to be flames. I know a little about the level of due diligence being performed. This isn't idle "imagine if..." by a few locals, there is more going on.

 

IntraWest was just put up for sale, so Vail Resorts is certainly a potential bidder for some/all of those assets (Mount Tremblant, Stratton and the heli skiing operation look like great targets for Vail). 

 

Seems like Stowe, owned by an AIG sub could also be a target, though not sure of the basis to re-affirm that idea.

 

By the way, if Vail paid $1 billion for Whistler and around $300 million for Canyons, how much do you think Stowe would go for?

 

The answer may come this weekend: http://www.stowetoday.com/stowe_reporter/news/local_news/rumors-fly-about-vail-are-they-real/article_e8000d8a-e34a-11e6-b79e-c34287592cba.html

post #76 of 112

If Vail does buy Stowe it might be the start of an interesting pattern of going after Mountain Collective resorts. They just purchased Whistler Blackcomb. What would be next? I wonder if the Mountain Collective is the biggest competition to the Epic Pass.

post #77 of 112
Stowe does fit the clientele Vail would be trying to draw West. Add Jay peak when it goes up for auction and skiing in VT changes a lot.
post #78 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stev View Post
 

If Vail does buy Stowe it might be the start of an interesting pattern of going after Mountain Collective resorts. They just purchased Whistler Blackcomb. What would be next? I wonder if the Mountain Collective is the biggest competition to the Epic Pass.

 

If Vail buys Intrawest then what impact would that have on the Max Pass?

post #79 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by DanoT View Post
 

 

If Vail buys Intrawest then what impact would that have on the Max Pass?


This could also shake up the dynamic of Rocky Mountain Super Pass Plus if Steamboat and possibly Winter Park are taken out.

post #80 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stev View Post
 


This could also shake up the dynamic of Rocky Mountain Super Pass Plus if Steamboat and possibly Winter Park are taken out.

 

I am forever thankful to Vail for starting the "Pass Wars" just as I was retiring and having a custom winterized truck camper built for staying in ski area parking lots. However I am not sure that I want Vail to win the war.

post #81 of 112

A lot of the same rumors being regurgitated now.  Official Networks a couple of days late to the party.  Saturday came and went and nothing.  Doesn't look like @Jilly is on here but it is being alleged that Vail Resorts has been seen at Tremblant. 

 

VR buying Intrawest?  Not sure how that would go over with some of the CO locals if it squashed the RMSP+ pass.  I recently tried to research if WP/MJ could be involved with VR but I came up with nothing.

post #82 of 112

I seem to remember that when Vail Resorts acquired Keystone and Breck, it also included A-Basin.  And they were forced to get rid of one and A-Basin was sold off.  I suspect there would be problems with the regulators with them acquiring more of the major resorts close to Denver.  The rumors about Vail buying Stowe have been hot and heavy this past week.  No announcement yet from either Stowe or VR but both refused to comment so that says they are talking at least.

 

And it was Winter Park that started the Colorado pass wars with the "buddy" pass.  Pass was $199 but you had to get three buddies to join with you as they were sold in packs of four.  In a few years all the other resorts close to Denver joined the party.  I also am a retiree and really like the cheap pass options! 

post #83 of 112

It is also worth noting that WP is not owned by Intrawest and is only operated by them. The city of Denver owns WP for god knows what reason. If Intrawest were in serious talks of selling then the City of Denver would have to be one of the first to know.

post #84 of 112

I heard from a buddy in the industry (who I trust to have the straight poop) last night that it's all over but the signing.

post #85 of 112

@H2OnSnow are you referring to the purchase of Stowe? I have also heard from several others that it is a done deal which is interesting because they kept WB on the DL until after it was done.

post #86 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrizzlyAdams View Post
 

@H2OnSnow are you referring to the purchase of Stowe? I have also heard from several others that it is a done deal which is interesting because they kept WB on the DL until after it was done.


I was, yes. I think this is still on the DL. My guy is a deep industry insider, not VR or Stowe guy, but someone who has deep contacts.

post #87 of 112
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrizzlyAdams View Post
 

@H2OnSnow are you referring to the purchase of Stowe? I have also heard from several others that it is a done deal which is interesting because they kept WB on the DL until after it was done.

 

This is the norm rather than the exception around deals.

 

When it relates to a large/substantial deal (WB was over $1 billion and Stowe will likely be around $500M) and when it involves a public company under SEC disclosure rules (Vail Resorts is $7 billion market cap public company), little if anything is usually confirmed/divulged about a deal. 

 

The first confirmation of any news will come from a Form 8-K filing with the SEC and/or from a press release put out on the news wires.

 

Until then, any detail around this deal will likely be based on rumor/speculation/hearsay.


Edited by naja - 1/30/17 at 10:51am
post #88 of 112

The latest news from WCAX:  http://www.wcax.com/story/34402269/rumors-of-stowe-resort-sale-reach-crescendo

 

I know both the Denver Business Journal and On the Street have also had recent updates but nothing new.  One of them did reference an "inside source" stating nothing has been inked yet.

 

@GrizzlyAdams the county is also a stakeholder.  I agree they would have to know.   The stuff mentioned  around WP/MJ was more from a pass perspective but a couple of things come to mind.  Above I mentioned  "I recently tried to research if WP/MJ could be involved with VR but I came up with nothing."   I don't think they can.  Verbiage in previous litigation was specific to the front range and not just Summit County.

 

"In particular, this acquisition would increase substantially the concentration among ski resorts to which several hundred thousand skiers residing in the "Front Range" of Colorado -- the geographic area lying just east of the Rocky Mountains, and including the metropolitan areas of Fort Collins, Boulder, Denver, Colorado Springs, and Pueblo and surrounding population areas"

 

Based on that, it sounds like VR would probably not be able to work with Winter Park.  Intrawest would probably have to find someone else to manage them.

post #89 of 112

Honestly, I wonder if Powdr corp might be considering snagging Intrawest. That would give them a significant step towards challenging Vail and it would vastly consolidate skiing in the front range especially with their purchase of Eldora last year. However, I'm also not sure if they have the funds to do so. It would require some serious capital.

post #90 of 112
Quote =GrizzlyAdams:
Honestly, I wonder if Powdr corp might be considering snagging Intrawest.

I certainly hope not, based on the track records at Bachelor and Killington.  And these are the people who couldn't handle the lease renewal competently at their former flagship area in Park City. 

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