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El Niño, the AO, and the East

post #1 of 18
Thread Starter 
An interesting discussion by Philadelphia-based "Hurricane" Schwartz: http://mobile.philly.com/news/?wss=/philly/news&id=321572951&
post #2 of 18

Interesting page. There's a link part way down, to NC State U, about the Arctic Oscillation and El Nino, that's really worthwhile if you want to get further into it. 

post #3 of 18

wtf...... we have cycles?

 

If you can stomach (or laugh) through the criticism of current policy, the vid talks about other cycles. I never knew about the lunar position wrt earth latitudes

 

post #4 of 18

hmmm... so much for the Milankovitch cycles  :/

 

 

Here's some thing that can be monitored within the coming months, the Siberian Snowpack. The link to the NC climate site  mentions the Siberian correlation to snow fall in the East. 

 

Siberian Snowpack

 

 

In addition, Rutger monitor's the snow cover at the Arctic, it should gives us an indication what to expect this coming season. 

 

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/

post #5 of 18
post #6 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewguy View Post
 

Another assessment from DC's capital weather gang, but without the AO connection drawn out:

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/08/18/what-history-has-to-say-about-washington-d-c-s-winter-weather-during-strong-el-nino-events/

 

Any article on DC weather and El Ninos that leaves out giant ice storms like the ones in 1994 and 1995 has to be suspected of cherry-picking data to achieve an editorial goal.

post #7 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantunamunch View Post
 

 

Any article on DC weather and El Ninos that leaves out giant ice storms like the ones in 1994 and 1995 has to be suspected of cherry-picking data to achieve an editorial goal.

 

Well any article that claims we'll either get a ton of snow, or very little, doesn't seem to have too much of an editorial goal. All they've ruled out is that we'll have a normal amount of snow. 

 

I guess the ice storms are part of "very little snow". (BTW, I wasn't around for those - I was in Pittsburgh enjoying the multiple feet of snow.) 

post #8 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbostedo View Post
 
 All they've ruled out is that we'll have a normal amount of snow

 

I guess the ice storms are part of "very little snow". (BTW, I wasn't around for those - I was in Pittsburgh enjoying the multiple feet of snow.) 


And that is one impression that they shouldn't have given.    One might think that El Nino is nothing but snow/no snow extremes.   They should not have given the impression that trends are even consistent over the span of a 3 month winter.      Witness the 2002/2003 El Nino when we had a partly decent November (think  blanketing snowfall in DC between Veterans Day and Thanksgiving.   Others might remember the black Friday avalanche on Mt. Washington)  - then warm and balmy Dec, Jan. - then season-saving OK February and a wet March.     That would count as a 'normal' amount of snow, overall.    

 

 

You had snow in Pittsburgh for those?   Oh yeah, I did at least one 7S trip that year.    I remember the ice/snow line went way north though, like north of Burlington. 

 


Edited by cantunamunch - 8/24/15 at 4:12pm
post #9 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by cantunamunch View Post
 

You had snow in Pittsburgh for those?  

'

I'm assuming we did, since I remember a few big snowstorms from then ('93 or '94 especially - I was in college in Virginia by the '94-'95 season), but no ice storms. I guess it might have just passed us by altogether though. That was a long time ago though. :) And I don't know when the DC ice storms were.

 

So I did a little checking... from www.weather.gov, January '94 saw 30 inches of snow, and March '93 saw 34 inches (25" in one storm). And '92-'93 and '93-'94 are two of the 7 snowiest seasons in Pittsburgh history. I lived to the east of the city, so probably saw a bit more than this.

 

82.0" 1950-1951
78.5" 1913-1914
77.4" 2009-2010
76.8" 1993-1994
76.0" 1960-1961
74.5" 1995-1996
72.1" 1992-1993
70.7" 1969-1970
63.6" 1935-1936
63.4" 2013-2014
post #10 of 18

Bastardi and D'Aleo will be making their winter forecast this coming weekend. IMO, a couple of things are going in the favor, they have been fairly accurate along the east coast for the past several  years. In addition, this year they are seeing very distinct patterns to analog years that they have been close to nailing their three month predictions.

 

Bastardi gives his forecast to the public sat afternoon. 

http://www.weatherbell.com/ 

post #11 of 18
Thread Starter 

Another take -- I have no idea how accurate the theory is, but you can't beat if for happy-making if you live on this coast:  http://www.takepart.com/article/2015/08/31/arctic-sea-ice-melt-global-warming-extreme-cold-winters?cmpid=fb

post #12 of 18

I give little credence to an essay where the basis of its scientific support is from a climate model study using the CMIP5 multi model set. 

 

Only thing entertaining is the comment section. 

post #13 of 18
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jack97 View Post
 

I give little credence to an essay where the basis of its scientific support is from a climate model study using the CMIP5 multi model set. 

 

Only thing entertaining is the comment section. 


I knew someone more knowledgeable would rain on that parade, but it was full while it lasted.

post #14 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by lakespapa View Post
 


I knew someone more knowledgeable would rain on that parade, but it was full while it lasted.

 

I keep on forgetting that climate modeling does not require model validation nor require any correlation observations.  

 

 

post #15 of 18
Quote:
Originally Posted by jack97 View Post
 

I give little credence to an essay where the basis of its scientific support is from a climate model study using the CMIP5 multi model set. 

 

Only thing entertaining is the comment section. 


Thanks for the laugh and another vote for Weatherbell premium.

 

Another site that I use for a perspective is here:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic

 

If you click on earth lower left you can look at more than one element at a time. By looking at winds at the 250mb range, 500mb range and surface winds combined with water column moisture levels you can get a pretty good idea of what the weather is going to do.  I compare this to what Weatherbell is saying to get and even better idea of what is going on.

 

Right now I am not sure about this winter.  Just this week ENSO dropped for the first time since mid June. That is a sign than El Nino may have peaked and will drop from now till the end of the year.  We may very well not be in strong or even moderate El Nino conditions by the end of the year.   In any case though I do not see the end of the warm water in the north eastern Pacific which is separate from the El Nino driven weather.  The persistence of that warm anomaly is very interesting to me.  

Right now if I have to call it I would say milder conditions early winter in relation to last year and a brutal second half of the winter like last year for the eastern USA. 

post #16 of 18

As far as snow is concerned in Northeast ski areas, El Nino/La Nina have minimal effect.

 

Quote:
Just this week ENSO dropped for the first time since mid June. That is a sign than El Nino may have peaked and will drop from now till the end of the year. 

No, ENSO tends to stabilize at this time of year.   It is is most likely to stay near its current high but not record level (below 1982-83 and 1997-98 but higher than 3rd highest 1991-92) from now through late winter/early spring.  


Edited by Tony Crocker - 9/10/15 at 10:01am
post #17 of 18

Bastardi is still locked on to his winter forecast, he sees definite analogs to the 50s. 

 

 

For those who want to stay within the comfort of their groupthink on policy matters,  scroll past to 12:00 to get his forecast.

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-september-19-2015

post #18 of 18
Thread Starter 

One groupthink or another, that's all.  

 

Interesting forecast.  About what we've been seeing from other respected sources.  Pretty average for the Northeast, good for the southern Rockies, dismal again for the NW coast.

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