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2015-16 Colorado Weather Discussion - Page 40post #1171 of 236511/11/15 at 5:09pm
Gear mentioned in this thread:post #1172 of 236511/11/15 at 6:29pmThread Starterpost #1173 of 236511/11/15 at 8:02pmpost #1174 of 236511/11/15 at 8:24pmpost #1175 of 236511/11/15 at 10:47pmpost #1176 of 236511/12/15 at 8:32ampost #1177 of 236511/12/15 at 8:52amQuote:Originally Posted by tball
Whaa-whaa. I'm just pointing out the facts here.
This place would be rather boring without a bit of my mountain is better than yours. I think we could use more of the @Ghost of Josh
Yeah and deep down we are all just jealous of Aspen/Snowmass season pass holders anyway.post #1178 of 236511/12/15 at 8:56ampost #1179 of 236511/12/15 at 8:59ampost #1180 of 236511/12/15 at 9:06ampost #1181 of 236511/12/15 at 11:01amQuote:
I was in that line, probably just to the right of the lift shack in this pic, if it were at first chair. (The red carpet passers went ahead of us.) (Got in line ~8:15. 8:30 would have worked fine too.) First run was powder, ~5-6." (They'd groomed the first few inches of snowfall overnight.) Second through maybe fifth runs were chop. After that, fun chop/bumps, stay in fall line, thread the folks. And it kept snowing.
Wind at first, then none after less than one run. The snow fell like feathers, floating in slow motion.
The above line dropped in length a bit for a while, then got longer, nearly equal lines then formed on the left side of pic around 10:30, where early on only racers enter, then stayed that length past ~11 when I stopped, enough for first day on fat skis. (I know, ~100-105 skis might have been sort of best, but I wanted to get legs used to fat skis, see. (Any excuse, actually. )post #1182 of 236511/12/15 at 2:22pmThread StarterLooks like the next round Mon night into early Wed. Another 4 corners storm evolving into a cutoff low. Seems to favor southern CO and NM right now, but coming out of the PNW everybody should get some and a slight shift north in the track could make for a good looking Front Range storm.
Hoping some more terrain will open since I can almost def take Tue or Wed...post #1183 of 236511/12/15 at 4:47pmpost #1184 of 236511/12/15 at 8:56pm
Looks like after all that snow, Loveland finally plans to get some more lifts open.
Edit- also that picture is a pretty terrible photochop.post #1185 of 236511/13/15 at 8:20am
Peak 10 was a ton of fun yesterday.
We started from the Beaver Run parking lot. Some vehicles were driving the snow covered road which went as far as 10 Mile Station and beyond. The snowmakers were at work under Quicksilver so that access may go away soon.
Just enough snow down low to skin and ski without damage although some extra caution was required at water bars. This was my first telemark outing in years. I have releaseable bindings (Rottefella 7TMs) which were set a bit low. After my first few turns the inside ski released (it just stayed where it was mid turn; wish I'd taken a picture) and I enjoyed my first summersault in a while. Needless to say, I'll be adjusting the bindings release setting but I think tele my be my touring setup for a while. I just need a bigger ski than the 179 Hippie Stinx.
I 'helped' Marty by putting the skins on his skis. Do you think he noticed?
The 10 Mile Range
The Front Range
Looking down Crystal. This was the up line and was pretty chewed up.
Lookup up Centennial which we skied. The snow was firm enough under the upper layers to be protection from the earth but some spots were wind-stiffened. I norpined quite a bit.
Marty.post #1186 of 236511/13/15 at 8:28amThread StarterThis is....interesting....
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER TROUGH
WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE BOTTOM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY
00Z MONDAY LATE. THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
COLORADO/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AREA AT 18Z
TUESDAY MID AFTERNOON. THE GFS STALLS IT THERE THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS MOVE IT ALONG TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. AT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING...THE GFS STILL HAS NEAR US
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE ECMWF HAS PRETTY STRONG WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AT THAT TIME. MOISTURE-WISE...THE ECMWF
HAS A DECENT PRECIPITATION WINDOW FOR THE CWA FROM MONDAY EVENING
INTO LATE MORNING TUESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A FIERCE PROLONGED WINDOW
OF DEEP MOISTURE FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A HUGE DIFFERENCE FOR SURE. IF THE GFS WERE TO COME
TRUE...WE WOULD CERTAINLY SEE A MAJOR...EVEN AN ALL TIME RECORD...
SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN
THE MODELS IS SEVERE.post #1187 of 236511/13/15 at 8:36amQuote:
Where is this "urban corridor" that you speak of? I'm going to be in Summit Co. at the beginning of Dec. It's starting to look like the conditions won't be as bad as I originally thought. *Fingers Crossed*post #1188 of 236511/13/15 at 8:43ampost #1189 of 236511/13/15 at 8:47amQuote:
Urban corridor == east of the mountains (Fort Collins, Boulder, Denver, Co. Springs.)
If GFS verifies and upslope winds get going strong enough Winter Park/Loveland/Eldora are the most likely to benefit. This particular storm doesn't look like it will be huge for Summit (too far West / over the Divide), although there are other storms brewing that might be good for them.post #1190 of 236511/13/15 at 8:57amThread StarterQuote:
Front Range (Denver, etc.). A storm on this track will throw moisture and upslope flow against the Front Range wrapping around from the east.
If the GFS verified, that means Denver goes under 3' and the foothills up to continental divide get crushed. "All time" would mean like the March 2003 storm.
So Loveland plus spillover potential into A-Basin and Winter Park that sit just on the other side of the divide as prime targets, and of course, Eldora.
Most storms don't just sit over the panhandles as powerful closed lows and nuke the Front Range, but it does happen. The GFS called the 2003 storm 5 days out - it was funny watching NOAA finally buy into it that 3-5' might be underdone for the foothills, which it was.
The GFS doesn't have much model support, but fun to think about several feet of snow on a few open blue and green runs .post #1191 of 236511/13/15 at 9:09ampost #1192 of 236511/13/15 at 9:25amOne part of the National Weather Service website says only "Chance/Slight Chance" of snow for Monday-Wednesday next week. The gloom and doom version cited above is found by drilling into a different page on Forecast Discussion. Usually when NWS says 2-4 inches, the media will be telling us the sky is falling (like 6, 8, 10 or more), and we end up getting a light dusting. The media wants eyeballs and ears to pay attention to them, so they have a vested interest in scaring us to death.
If we really do get an upslope storm, though, it could be really nasty. Those usually are.post #1193 of 236511/13/15 at 9:26amDang. The urban corridor is exactly where you don't want the snow to fall. I hate shoveling 3 feet from my driveway to get to 2 inches of fresh powder on the slopes. My Echo Mountain pass only very slightly tempers my disdain for the dreaded upslope storm.post #1194 of 236511/13/15 at 10:52amThread StarterQuote:Originally Posted by DOCEVG
: where are you pulling these GFS forecasts from. I was unable to find them through a google search.
The quote in post 1186 is from the forecast discussion from the Boulder NOAA office. They aren't biting on a snowmaggedon forecast from one model, so several days out we have chance of snow.
I like reading the forecast discussions because they talk about model projections, which gives a look in the medium range on the model level, and whether the forecaster is buying a solution or not.
Neither the Boulder nor Pueblo (southern CO) offices are discrediting the GFS, presumably because all the models are agreeing on a strong four corners low tracking across northern NM. GFS stalls it, ECMWF does not. The differences in impact are large, of course, and that assumes the basic track holds.post #1195 of 236511/13/15 at 11:04am
I appreciate your evaluations of the forecast discussions. For all the time you guys spending reading and analyzing the discussion, I'm working so I can get out when the stuff is actually on the ground. Knowing when it's going to snow helps me plan when NOT to schedule appointments. And I never schedule appointments in the morning during ski season.post #1196 of 236511/13/15 at 11:11amThread Starterpost #1197 of 236511/13/15 at 1:55pmQuote:Originally Posted by Morrison Claystone
Usually when NWS says 2-4 inches, the media will be telling us the sky is falling (like 6, 8, 10 or more), and we end up getting a light dusting. The media wants eyeballs and ears to pay attention to them, so they have a vested interest in scaring us to death.
^^^THIS^^^ is exactly why I never watch Mike Nelson.post #1198 of 236511/13/15 at 2:01pmQuote:
Hey Monique. As suspected I didn't make it back in time to get up there today. Hopefully you decided to still do your trip and there is plenty of snow cover for skis. I read your blog on the Avy 1. Very nice.post #1199 of 236511/14/15 at 9:34amThread StarterSo A-Basin opened Lenawee today, Copper opened Ptarmigan, Loveland opened some terrain...what else? Trying plan for Mon or Tue, probably between A-Basin or Copper since I don't have a Luv pass.
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- 2015-16 Colorado Weather Discussion
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