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El Nino?? - Page 10

post #271 of 279

How are they forecasting rain and snow for Wolf with nightly temps in the mid 20s?

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=37.47180688400044&lon=-106.79197993199966&site=all&smap=1#.Vi7PdCurGxV

 

Thurs night:

 

Rain and snow showers likely before 11pm, then rain showers likely between 11pm and 1am, then snow showers likely after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. South wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

 

 

Wonder what is going on around midnight up there on Thurs, heat wave coming through?

post #272 of 279
^^^^Computer generated forecasts. That 'rain in the middle" forecast language shows up all the time in CO NOAA forecasts and should be ignored.
post #273 of 279

So is this legit? Is this El-Nino Cycle now more powerful than 1997-1998?

 

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/12/noaa-el-nino-is-now-the-strongest-ever-recorded

 

I looked at NOAA's website, and the last press release I am seeing dates to November 12, reflecting this year was still second fiddle, but, that was looking at average vs. the above graph that I think it looking more at a point in time and possibly a different section of ocean.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-it%E2%80%99s-small-world

post #274 of 279

Legit.  This PhD student at Stanford posts occasionally on his weather blog and this post explains El Ninó really well.

It's all happening.

 

http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/3607

 

Quote

Top-tier El Niño conditions are now an observational reality, not a prediction. As discussed above, we are now approaching the time of year when El Niño’s influence upon the Pacific storm track tends to be more pronounced. So, with that in mind, how does the upcoming winter look?

In a word: wet. In fact, it’s hard to envision a set of mid-November observations and model output that would lead to higher confidence in a wetter-than-average California winter than the ones currently in place.

post #275 of 279

Has anyone heard anything about the spot of hot water off the CA/OR coast? Last I read a few months ago was that it was cooling down, but nothing since. That was likely the cause of the RRR that screwed everything up the past few years, and the guys at OpenSnow were hesitant about forecasting a wet winter because of that.

post #276 of 279

Good question

Quote:
 Has anyone heard anything about the spot of hot water off the CA/OR coast? Last I read a few months ago was that it was cooling down, but nothing since. That was likely the cause of the RRR that screwed everything up the past few years, and the guys at OpenSnow were hesitant about forecasting a wet winter because of that.

I don't know the answer, but I did find these pictures.  The El Nino signature is bright. It also looks like the SST's off the coast have cooled a little.

LINK: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

 

Here's a picture of the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean from today (Dec 7)

 

Here's a picture of the SST's from a year ago

post #277 of 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by river-z View Post
 

 

I don't know the answer, but I did find these pictures.  

 

 

 

Here's an app where you can monitor SST, air temps and other parameters. Just click on the earth area to view the menu. As for the RRR which affected the NW, iirc, some long term forecasters were saying the ridging will persist but will move north since it's influenced by the Arctic Oscillation.   

 

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/anim=off/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/equirectangular


Edited by jack97 - 12/8/15 at 3:06am
post #278 of 279
A couple weeks ago it was cold waterskiing in San Diego. Last year we were warm later. So maybe the blob is gone. Or at least weak enough for a rainy (snowy!) winter.

Eric
post #279 of 279

New Post from Daniel Swain on the El Nino situation.  Great read: http://www.weatherwest.com/archives/3677

 

Some Quotes:

The details of the long-range forecast are highly speculative at this point given the unstable flow pattern. But there are clear signs that a major pattern reorganization is occurring over the North Pacific, and that there is an elevated potential for active weather over the next 2 weeks...  

 

The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge has not returned, and the best available evidence suggests that the large-scale pattern over the North Pacific will change very substantially in the coming days and weeks...

 

it appears that El Niño’s influence will finally start to dominate–and significant rains will return to all of California–before the end of December. At present, the CFS is painting an optimistic picture for the latter half of December, with a persistent West Coast trough (yes, you read that right!) and widespread above average precipitation. Monthly outlooks show an even more emphatic trend toward active California weather, with recent forecasts depicting a very wet January-March to come...

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