Originally Posted by bsimeral
Northern 2/3s of CA, PNW, northern tier of US all the way to NY and Alaska are forecast for warmer than normal weather right now. You can see the precip and temp forecasts at the climate prediction center. These are not always accurate but current forecasts reflect an el Nino event.
CPC will have their August update coming out on Thursday.
I follow ENSO and winter seasonal forecasts closely. This Nino is no joke and is currently tracking right up there with the big boys in terms of sea surface temperature evolution, upper level winds (Velocity Potential anomalies), Equatorial SOI, and low level zonal wind anomalies. Personally, I favor a blend of the 4 big Ninos on record which all occurred during a positive PDO regime - 1878, 1889, 1983, and 1998, bringing some drought relief out west, particularly in California. I feel that this Nino will be strong enough to largely overcome the strong and persistent western ridging (high pressure). I'm more bullish than CPC on above avg precipitation occurring in northern California and north into Oregon and Washington (CPC agrees with above avg precip in central/southern California). Having said all of that, seasonal forecasting is always a big challenge...but when ENSO is strong (strong El Nino / strong La Nina), the chances of getting the forecast correct increase.
Here's a visual of the forecast ideas:
Edited by griteater - 8/18/15 at 9:11pm