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Weather question

post #1 of 7
Thread Starter 

Ive read some posts from people that really seem to know a thing or two about weather so maybe those in the know can answer this question for me. Are high/low temperatures easier to predict and therefore more accurate than precipitation predictions 7-10 days out?

post #2 of 7
Heck, I'd say temperature forecasts are more accurate than precipitation forecasts just seven HOURS out. We've had 100% probability (where I come from, that means it definitely WILL happen) of seven to ten inches of snow overnight, AS I WENT TO BED, that didn't result in so much as a "trace". These weather forecasters obviously had a different math class than I did.
post #3 of 7

I can't recall a time ever when I looked at the temp and thought "man they sure got the forecast wrong today."  That happened with pretty much every precip. forecast all winter.  So yeah temps are easier I'd say.  Maybe factoring in historical averages for temps makes them easier to forecast? 

post #4 of 7
Thread Starter 

I should probably change the question. It shouldn't have been a comparison to precipitation. :) I'm just thinking of future vacation planning after this incredibly warm winter the entire west region has experienced this season. It would help in planning where to go if the temps can be predicted fairly accurately 10 days out.

post #5 of 7

The short answer is yes. We have skill forecasting temperatures up to two weeks in advance. Precipitation just about 5 days.

post #6 of 7
Thread Starter 

Thanks bliz. After the season we had (or are having for some) I'm thinking of not planning any major trips next season and instead only doing last minute road trips to wherever the conditions are best. Looking at temp forecasts in advance could really help predict snow preservation, melt/freeze cycles, and snowmaking potential when deciding on which region to head towards. thanks again!

post #7 of 7
Book Southwest Airlines two weeks out if the weather guys are talking storms. If it doesn't come true you can always cancel last minute and get a credit towards your next powder chase attempt. Plus skis fly free with them, hard to beat that.
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